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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure prompted a test of 40 DMA at 17.29. The market closed at 17.24. The stochastics are rising out of the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting a change of trend in the near term. Trend support level has proven to be robust, and we saw futures pick up higher to 40 DMA level. A breach back above this level would bring into play the recent firm resistance of 17.66. Futures need to take 18.00 in order to confirm the trend. On the downside, the fall below 16.85 could trigger losses through trend support to 16.46. The 10 DMA level crossed below the 40 DMA, suggesting we could we further downward pressure, however, indicators point to the end of the bearish momentum, and futures need to close above 40 DMA to confirm that.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar strengthened yesterday, as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 10 DMA 444.91 at 445.30. The stochastics are rising, %K/%D is converging on the upside in the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and converging. Long bullish candle body with a long lower wick suggests growing buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the resistance at 10 DMA completely. This would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to the 23.6% fib level at 448 and then 449.60. On the downside, a breach of support at 430 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the 427.60. Indicators point to higher prices, and we expect futures to strengthen in the near term.  

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee softened yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 153.40. The RSI is falling, but %K/%D is positive and diverging, soon to leave the oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting waning selling pressure. The indicators point to higher prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the resistance, prices need to take out the 40 DMA at 153.26. A break below this level towards the 38.2% fib level at 151.58 and then 146.95 would confirm the bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 10 DMA at 154.15 could trigger a test of resistance of 155.40; secondary trend resistance stands at 157.18. A negative doji candle after a bullish candle signal market uncertainty and narrowing support and resistance DMAs are creating a tight trading range, a break out of which would set the scene for strong momentum. We anticipate prices on the front foot in the near term.  

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee prices gained ground yesterday with an appetite for prices above 10 DMA, triggering a close at 1650. The stochastics favour the upside, with the %K/%D diverging on the upside, suggesting we could see prices improve further in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and converging, pointing to an improved outlook. Yesterday’s candle suggests we could see prices break above 1650 in the near term. In the medium term, futures need to hold above that level and then target 1693 – June highs. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA support level at 1615 could trigger losses back to 1600. Yesterday’s candle tested 1650, forming a double top, which means we could see a reversal in trend. The stochastics, however, point to an improvement in momentum, and a break above that level could see prices edge higher in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after piercing the support level of 2355. The market closed higher at 2344. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative, however lacks conviction. The reaffirmation of support at 2350 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA level at 2394. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 2317, the May lows, in order to confirm the bearish trend. Indeed, the support level has been robust in the past, suggesting a lack of appetite for prices below this level. The long lower wick confirms this. We believe that the market is supported above that level and should gain back some strength in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures softened yesterday after piercing the support level of 2250. The market closed lower at 2233. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative, however lacks conviction. The reaffirmation of support at 2250 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA level at 2265. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 38.2% fib level at 2211 in order to confirm the bearish trend. Indeed, this level support level has been tested and broken below marginally for the last couple of sessions, suggesting an appetite for prices below this level. The market needs to break below this level in the near term to confirm the outlook.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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