NY 2nd Month Sugar
Prices firmed on Friday and tested resistance at 18.53, this level held firm and futures closed at 18.37. The indicators confirm the recent price action as the MACD diff is positive and diverging. the ADX is pushing higher as is the RSI. The inside day on Friday has caused the stochastics to converge marginally in overbought territory and futures need to close above 18.53 and then target 19.00 to reaffirm upside momentum. Conversely, if prices reject 18.53 once more this could trigger losses back to 17.87 or 17.66. The reaffirmation of support at this level would set the scene for higher prices back through 19. We expect prices to firm today.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar
Futures posted an inside day on Friday but prices struggled to gain a footing on the upside and the market closed at 471. The MACD is diverging on the upside but the %K stochastic is starting to converging as the %D rises. The rejection of 478 and the doji on Friday suggest we could see a correction to the downside in the near term. A breakthrough 470 could set the scene for a retracement back to 460 in the medium term. Alternatively, in order to confirm the positive indicators, the market needs to take out 478 and 480. The market has moved quickly in recent weeks and this could trigger some consolidation in the coming sessions.
NY 2nd Month Coffee
Coffee prices softened once again on Friday, prices failed above 155.40 and closed at 153.05. The stochastics are falling and have given a sell signal, the MACD diff is also negative as the ADX lacks conviction. The recent sell-off has meant prices now test near term trend support at 153, secondary support stands at 23.6% fib level, there is a band of support between 151.58 and 150. A breach of this level, in the long run, could trigger losses back to 141.93. On the upside, appetite for prices around 150 has been robust in recent months, but futures need to hold above 155.50 before targeting 160. Selling pressure has dictated market activity in recent weeks but we currently trading within a band of support.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee
Futures failed to break through resistance at 1737 on Friday, prompting a close at 1707. The stochastics are converging in overbought territory, the MACD diff lacks conviction. The rejection of prices at 1737, could trigger losses back to 1666 before with the 23.6% in level at 1643. On the upside, futures need to break and hold above this level in order to reaffirm the trend. Conversely, the market has moved quickly and the reaffirmation of support at the 10 DMA would strengthen the outlook in the longer run. We expect futures to soften in the near term confirming sentiment in the market.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa
Futures sold off on Friday after failing above 2355 and the market closed at 2317. The stochastics, MACD, and RSI are falling and this confirmed the weaker market. The rejection of prices above 2400 could trigger losses towards 2247, in the medium term. The two closes on the lows indicate robust downside momentum. On the upside, if futures find support at 2315 the market could trigger a test of 2355 in the near term, with 2400 and 2434 the targets on the upside. We expect prices will weaken in the near term given the recent closes and weaker indicators.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa
Ldn cocoa prices sold off on Friday as intraday trading saw prices fail into near term trend resistance before closing at 2219. The stochastics are oversold, the MACD diff lacks conviction but we expect prices to edge lower in the near term. A break of support at 2200 would help confirm the descending triangle and losses back to 2147. On the upside, prices need to take out resistance at 2243 before targeting 2302 in the near term. We expect the market to decline in the near term but support at 2200-2215 is a strong area of support and this could trigger gains.
