NY 2nd Month Sugar
Prices buckled yesterday as a lack of appetite for prices above 18.53 prompted futures to close at 18.20. The stochastics are in overbought territory but are converging, as the MACD diff is starting to plateau but the ADX continues to rise. To confirm the rejection of 18.53, prices need to break below 18.00 and then 17.87. The 40DMA stands at 17.41, before the 100 DMA at 16.59 which could be a target on the downside in the long run. We do not expect this level to be tested. On the upside, a band of support between 17.87-18.00 has been robust in recent weeks and this could trigger gains through 18.53 before targeting 19.00. We expect prices to soften today but if prices test support at 17.41 holds, long term momentum will remain on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar
Ldn futures sold off yesterday as a rejection of resistance at 480 prompted a close on the back foot at 469.20. The stochastics are converging in overbought territory but the MACD diff is still positive and diverging, The RSI is falling which helps to confirm yesterday's bearish engulfing candle, but to confirm this pattern and the double top at 480 futures need to break towards 460. On the upside, an appetite for prices below 469 could prompt futures to break above 482.60. This would help confirm an ascending triangle and pave the way for higher prices towards 500. We expect prices to edge lower in the near term and break towards 460.
NY 2nd Month Coffee
NY coffee sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted futures to break through key support at 150 and close at 148.10. The stochastics have given a sell signal and the MACD diff is negative, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through 148.10 towards the 40 DMA at 142.18. Selling pressure has been robust and the close has been on the lows indicating bearish sentiment. On the upside, if prices have been well supported at between 148-150, if this remains the case, if futures can gain a footing back above 151.58 before targeting 155.4. We anticipate selling pressure to continue in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee
Ldn coffee sold yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test resistance at 1720 before selling off and closing at 1679. The stochastics are plateauing, and the MACD diff is converging as the RSI falls as well. Upside tail and the repeated rejection of prices above 1700 could set the scene for lower prices through 1679 towards 1643.54. On the upside, an appetite for prices below 1670 could trigger gains back towards 1700. The key level on the upside is 1737 but market sentiment is soft at the momentum and we do not expect futures to rally to this level. We expect futures to break towards 1643.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa
NY cocoa prices buckled yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted prices to break support at 2317 and close at 2298. The stochastics are falling back towards oversold but the RSI and MACD diff are falling. The close below 2300 could trigger losses back to 2250, to confirm the descending triangle prices the market needs to test 2200. On the upside, an appetite for prices below 2300 could trigger gains back to 2362 before targeting 2434. We expect futures re-test appetite above 2300 today but a rejection of this level would trigger losses back to 2250.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa
Ldn cocoa prices rejected near term trend resistance yesterday, prompting a close at 2208.77. The indicators lack conviction but the stochastics are oversold and the MACD diff is negative. The rejection of trend resistance and bearish candle suggests we could see prices break below 2200, helping to confirm the descending triangle, secondary support stands at 2147 with secondary support at 2100. On the upside, if futures break above trend resistance this could trigger gains to 2300 however, we expect the market to struggle in the near term and break towards 2147.