NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar softened yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 17.49. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D is diverging on the downside towards the oversold. The MACD diff has just converged on the downside, a strong buy signal. A narrow bullish candle body with a long lower wick suggests softening selling pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices17.87. This would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to 18.00. On the downside, a breach of support at 40 DMA at 17.42 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the 17.00. Indicators point to lower prices, but with yesterday’s candle struggling to break below 40 DMA support, we could see prices supported on the downside today.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower yesterday, causing the market to close at 450.90. The stochastics are falling, with %K seen tailing off, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term before some upside correction. To confirm the outlook of lower prices, futures need to close below 450 and then target 23.6% fib level at 448.02. The 40 and 10 DMAs are closing in and supporting prices on the upside. However, a break above the 40 DMA at 456.54 could set the scene for 10 DMA at 463.07 and then 470. The narrow candle body with long lower wick points to appetite for prices towards 440 but momentum favours the downside, and futures need to break out of current support to confirm the near-term outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures failed above 10 DMA yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 152.25. The stochastics continue to weaken but struggle to show a conviction for the outlook as they hover above the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and converging. The rejection of prices at 10 DMA at 153.74 has formed a candle with a narrow body, suggesting an appetite for lower prices. If prices were to break above that level, this could trigger a test of 150 and then 147.30, the level futures struggled to break for a couple of months. On the upside, futures need to take out 10 DMA at 153.74 and then robust resistance at 155.40. We believe that prices will continue to weaken today.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee weakened yesterday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 1717. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside out of oversold, and the RSI has edged lower. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting the outlook with lower prices. Full bearish candle with long lower wick suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 10 DMA support level at 1709. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 1700. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 1744 has proven to be strong, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 1772. Narrowing support and resistance levels are creating a narrow trading range, but we believe that the prices will edge marginally lower today.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after struggling to break resistance above 2434. The market closed at 2399. The stochastics are gaining ground, diverging on the upside, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting we could see higher prices in the near term through resistance 2434. A break below 2400 would bring into play the 2355 level, which could set the scene for 10 DMA at 2352. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 2450 in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the level at 200 DMA at 2470; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. Indicators point to upside potential, however, futures need to break above the near term resistance to confirm the outlook.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures lost ground yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot, however, above the previous day opening price, at 2277. The stochastics are rising, as the %K is about to cross into the oversold, signalling a buy trend in the near term. The MACD diff converged on the upside and is diverging. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 100 DMA at 2320, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance at 50% fib level at 2301 beforehand. On the downside, support around 40 DMA at 2276 is not yet robust, and if this level does not hold firm, we could see prices retreat back through 2250 to 10 DMA at 2236. The narrow candle body points to market uncertainty, but if the support level holds firm, we could see prices edge higher in the near term.
