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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures consolidated on Friday as protracted buying pressure prompted a close back above 18.50 at 18.59. The stochastics are rising, with %K in the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging. A bullish candle could set the scene for higher prices, a break of previous support at 18.68 could trigger gains towards 18.80 and 19.00. The stochastics are near overbought, and a new high would help confirm the trend and outlook for higher prices. However, prices have failed at 18.65 in recent weeks, and this could set the scene for lower prices to 18.00 and then 10 DMA at 17.82. A break of 17.80 would help confirm the rejection of the double top at 18.65, a break here would set the scene for lower prices towards 40 DMA level at 17.59. We expect the price to be moderately positive today, capped by near term resistance.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close at 471.80. The stochastics are rising, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging, signalling a positive trend in the near term. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 478.80, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance at 475 beforehand. On the downside, support around 460 is robust, and if this level does not hold firm, we could see prices retreat back through the 40 and 10 DMAs at 457 before 455. Long upper wick on Friday points to the appetite for higher prices, however, futures need to take out 478.80 in order to confirm the outlook on the upside.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures sold off on Friday as lack of appetite for higher prices helped to confirm the rejection of highs at 210; the market closed at 191.95. Stochastics are converging, and the RSI has edged lower, suggesting waning buying pressures. The MACD diff is positive and strong, indicating the previous positive trend. The close near the lows suggests a change of momentum to further selling pressure in the near term, and the indicators point to a softer negative trend. A break below the 190 level could set the scene for a test of the support level at 180. If the futures break through this level, the prices could test the support at 38.2% fib level at 168.05 in the medium term. Conversely, support around 190 would help reaffirm the trend on the upside. The downside risks prevail, however, the market needs to confirm a break below the key support for stronger bearish momentum.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 1899. The stochastics are converging on the downside, out of the overbought territory; however, the MACD diff is strong and positive, accounting for the previous rally. A break of 1900 could trigger losses through a 23.6% fib level at 1815, with the secondary level at 1800. On the upside, a break above previous sessions’ highs at 2000 could set the scene for a test of 2005, pointing to a change of trend back for more bullish momentum. Friday’s spinning top formation points to market indecisiveness about the outlook for lower prices, and we need the futures to break support at 1900 to confirm the outlook.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures held the nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 2364. RSI is rising marginally, and %K/%D is converging on the upside, confirming the change of trend in the near term. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming growing buying pressure. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 40 DMA at 2385 and then target 2400. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 10 DMA at 2362 could trigger losses back to 2317, the long-term support level. Buying pressure has been weak, but the indicators point to an acceleration of that momentum. The narrow candle body and long wicks confirm market uncertainty. The break of resistance at 40 DMA could confirm the outlook for higher prices in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2257. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D diverging out of the oversold. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging. On the upside, finding support above the 40 DMA level at 2256 could trigger gains through 2300 towards 100 DMA at 2303. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA at the 2239 level could trigger losses back towards 2200. That level has been supporting futures prices, and a break below it would signal strong selling pressure. Longer upper wick signals that the buying pressure is growing, and the bullish outlook is on the horizon.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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