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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures softened yesterday after finding resistance at 19.00 once again. The market closed at 18.80. The stochastics are converging on the downside in the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 18.53. A break below this level would bring into play the 10 DMA at 18.36 level, which could set the scene for trend support at 18.00. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 19.00 – the level futures struggled to break above - in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the level at 19.10; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. We believe that futures will soften today.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Lnd sugar futures sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted a test of support at 470 to close higher at 469.20. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The break of the key support level at 470 would suggest an appetite for lower prices. Secondary and tertiary support levels stand at 10 DMA at 465.67 and 460, respectively. On the upside, if prices find support at 470, this could prompt a recovery back above the 478.80, and in the near term, we could see futures break above 482.60. This level has provided strong resistance in recent months, and a close above this level would prompt prices to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to retreat in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures weakened yesterday as futures failed into the resistance above the previous day’s highs and futures closed at 199.30. The stochastics have converged on the downside as they are about to emerge from overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging, pointing to a waning buying pressure. A break below 200 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 10 DMA at 186.99 with the tertiary level at 23.6% fib level at 185. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above at 200 would suggest higher prices and a close above 210, setting the scene for higher prices towards 212.40. Yesterday’s candle body being below Monday’s suggests an appetite for lower prices, and the indicators are pointing to a further fall in prices in the near term. 

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower yesterday as prices closed at 1900. The indicators begin to favour the downside, seen converging, with %K/%D in the overbought area, suggesting waning buying pressures. A break below 1900 would bring into play the support level at 10 DMA at 1857.40. Prices have been relatively well supported above this support, and in order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 1906 and then target 1993 in the near term. The longer candle body suggests that there was a sell-off during the day, the sellers had an appetite for lower prices. The break below the near term support level would confirm stronger bearish momentum.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures increased marginally yesterday as trading saw prices close above 100 DMA at 2464. The stochastics are seen diverging on the upside, with the %K/%D edging close to the overbought and the MACD diff is diverging on the upside. A break of 2450 could trigger losses through 2434, with the secondary level at 2400. On the upside, a break above trend resistance could set the scene for bullish momentum towards the May high of 2500. The narrow body and long lower and upper wicks have been formed, which points to market indecisiveness, however, a break above the current resistance would confirm further bullish momentum.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Lnd cocoa futures edged above the previous day closing price, but the bullish momentum was not strong enough, and futures closed lower on the day at 2371. The stochastics continue to rise, yet seen converging, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging. The rejection of prices at 2388 has formed a candle with a narrow body but a long wick on the upside, suggesting an appetite for higher prices, however, lacking the conviction to break above the near term resistance. If prices were to break above 2400, this could trigger a test of 2424. To confirm the shooting start formation, futures need to take out 2359 and then robust support at 2350. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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