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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar weakened yesterday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 20.55. The stochastics have converged on the downside, and the RSI has also edged lower, sending a sell signal. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. Full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 10 DMA support level at 20.49. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 20.14 and 20, respectively. On the upside, resistance at 20.90 has proven to be strong, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 21.00 level. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Lnd sugar futures lost ground yesterday after prices tested the 505.80 support level, prompting a close at 508.30. The stochastics still continue to rise, with %K/%D in the neutral territory, but the MACD diff just converged on the downside, confirming the outlook of falling prices. Futures need to close above 519.90 resistance and then target 520 in the near term. On the downside, the short-bodied candle suggests a low appetite for lower prices. Prices need to close below 10 DMA at 504.18 before targeting 500. Candle opening price above the previous day’s close suggests strong initial momentum on the upside, but that momentum waned during the day, and the futures closed lower on the day. A break of the near term support level at 10 DMA would confirm the trend for lower prices.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 195.90. The stochastics are beginning to converge on the downside, with %K still in the overbought territory, but the MACD is positive and diverging, pointing to a growing buying pressure. The rejection of prices above 200 has formed a candle with a long wick on the upside, suggesting an appetite for lower prices, however, lacking the conviction to break above the near term support. If prices were to break below 23.6% fib level at 191.22, this could trigger a test of 10 DMA at 187.56 and then 180. On the upside, futures need to take out 200 and then robust resistance at 217.85. Indicators point to further selling pressure today, but the futures need to take out the near term support.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower yesterday as prices closed at 2026. The indicators are beginning to favour the downside, as %K/%D are about converged on the downside in the overbought, confirming growing selling pressures. The MACD remains positive. A break below 2000 would bring into play the 10 DMA support level at 1936. Prices have been relatively well supported below 10 DMA, and in order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 2070 and then target 2100 in the near term. The long bearish candle immediately after bullish candles points to a momentum change on the downside, with a growing appetite for lower prices. The break below 2000 would confirm the outlook for lower prices.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa sold off sharply yesterday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 2550 support level and a close on the back foot at 2540. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D diverging on the downside towards the oversold, and the RSI has also edged lower. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 50% fib level at 2534. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 2500. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 2595 has proven to be robust in the last couple of sessions, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the resistance at 2650 and then 2675. Long term momentum is on the downside, and the reaffirmation of resistance suggest this trend will remain intact.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

London cocoa futures buckled yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close at 2416. The stochastics are falling, with %K entering into the oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative, and a break of the support at 2400 could trigger losses through 40 DMA at 2352. On the upside, a break above 10 DMA at 2447 could set the scene for a test of 2480. We believe that the momentum will favour the downside, and after yesterday’s long candle body, we expect prices to soften today.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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