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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures sold off on Friday after investors rejected prices above 20.00, prompting a close below 40 DMA of 19.57 at 19.51. The stochastics are falling, with RSIs in neutral territory; the %K/%D are diverging on the downside and %K is in the oversold territory, suggesting for short-term negative trend. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm the bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 19.44 before the 19.00 level. Tertiary support stands at 100 DMA 18.26, a break below which would confirm the outlook for longer-term outlook. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 20.00 and then 20.14 in the near term. Near term momentum is on the downside, the close below the 40 DMA confirms this trend.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar softened on Friday as protracted selling pressure prompted a close below the 40 DMA level at 487.60. The stochastics are falling with the %K/%D diverging on the downside, the gap between them suggests further momentum on the downside. The MACD diff is negative and is diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The consecutive bearish candles suggest that the bears have taken over the sessions. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to reaffirm support at 40 DMA at 487.55 and then take out 10 DMA at 504.02 in order to regain upside momentum. To confirm the outlook for falling prices, the market needs to break below 482.60, which could set the scene for a test of 23.6% fib level at 479.14. Near term momentum favours the downside, and we expect this to remain the case in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee edged higher on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite for prices at 189.20, the market closed below at 188.05. Stochastics are falling, but %K is seen tailing off marginally, confirming further downside pressures before any change in momentum. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 190 and then target 10 DMA at 193.07. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 23.6% fib level at 191.22 could trigger losses below 40 DMA at 186.50. Buying pressure was weak; and indicators point to further selling pressure in the meantime, however, the doji candle suggests market uncertainty about the outlook. The reaffirmation of support above 40 DMA could strengthen the outlook of higher prices.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2048. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought, as the MACD diff is about to cross on the downside, signalling a sell trend in the near term. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 2000, but the market needs to take out immediate support at 2034 beforehand. On the upside, resistance around 2100 is robust in recent sessions, and if this level does not hold firm, we could see prices gain ground through to 2139. Longer upper wick on Friday points to the appetite for higher prices, however, futures crossing below the 10 DMA support level suggests further momentum on the downside.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures dwindled on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a test of support at 2600 and closed on the back foot at 2603. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D about to converge on the downside, highlighting further selling pressure. Likewise, the MACD diff is just converged on the downside; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 50% fib level at 2534. A break below this level would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 50 DMA level at 2525. On the upside, a level at 2700 is at near-term resistance, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 2726. Long candle body along with negative indicators point to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could see prices edge lower in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures softened on Friday after closing below 10 DMA to 2466. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 2453. A break below this level would bring into play 2431. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 2531 – the previous day’s high - in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the 2550 level; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The longer upper wick points to an increased appetite on the upside, but we expect to see prices edge lower in the near term.

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