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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar sold off sharply on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a test of 10 DMA and 40 DMA support levels and closed on the back foot at 19.93. The stochastics are converging, with %K seen falling, highlighting the recent selling pressure, but %D is still trending higher. The MACD diff is negative, and also converging. This could set the scene for lower prices towards the 19.44 support level. A break below this level would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 19.00. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 20.34 has proven to be strong in recent sessions, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 21.00. Long candle body, along with indicators suggesting a change of trend, points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could price edge lower in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar weakened on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 508.80. The stochastics are beginning to converge, %K has tailed off and is now falling, and the RSI has also edged lower. The MACD diff is negative, however, lacks the conviction to suggest an outlook. The full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 10 DMA support level at 507.87. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 40 DMA at 498.10. On the upside, resistance at 520 has proven to be strong, and an appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This momentum could also trigger gains towards 525. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above trend resistance at 197.15. The stochastics are rising with the %K/%D diverging on the upside, as the MACD diff just converged on the upside, outlining growing buying pressures. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term through 200, confirming the breakout from the bullish pennant. On the downside, the candle found support at 193, and if the prices break through this level, we could see futures retreat back through the 23.6% fib level at 191.22 before 10 DMA at 188.11. Another bullish candle would create a three white soldier formation, and a break above 200 signals we could see further bullish momentum in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 2129. The stochastics are converging in overbought and have given a sell signal; the MACD diff has just converged on the downside, a strong selling pressure. A break of 2127 could trigger losses through 10 DMA at 2120, with the secondary level at 2100. On the upside, a break above previous sessions’ highs at 2180 could set the scene for a test of 2200, pointing to a change of trend back for more bullish momentum. Friday’s spinning top formation points to market indecisiveness about the outlook for lower prices, and the futures need to break the near term support to confirm the outlook.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa weakened on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 2620. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside, and the RSI has edged lower. The MACD diff is negative, suggesting the outlook for lower prices. Long lower wick suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 40 DMA support level at 2592 (the market bounced off the 40 DMA and recovered back above 2620. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 50% fib level at 2534. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 2652 has proven to be strong in recent sessions, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 2675. Narrowing support and level at 40 DMA is creating a narrower trading range, but we believe that the prices will edge marginally lower today.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures lost ground on Friday as selling pressure intensified, prices closed at 2451. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting strengthening selling pressure, the RSI is neutral. The stochastics are diverging towards the oversold. To help confirm the selling pressure from the stochastics, prices need to break below the 40 DMA at 2452. On the upside, if futures can find support above the 10 DMA at 2478, this could set the scene for higher prices back above 2500 before targeting 2531. Selling pressure recently has fluctuated in recent sessions outlined by the shorter candles on the downside, and the indicators suggest lower prices in the near term. This is confirmed but a long bearish candle body with a longer lower wick. We expect prices to weaken in the near term, but the futures need to break below 40 DMA to confirm that outlook.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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