NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures fell yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot below 19.44 at 19.25. The stochastics are falling towards the oversold, and RSI is also falling. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices towards 19.10. A break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices towards 100 DMA at 18.86 and a three black crows pattern formation. On the upside, a break above 10 DMA at 19.48 resistance level and reaffirmation of appetite above 19.44 could strengthen the trend on the upside towards 40 DMA at 19.97. While the formation and indicators point to lower prices, candle bodies have been narrow, as futures struggle to break below 19.10, a firm support level.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures failed above 10 DMA once again yesterday as prices closed at 505.60. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging towards the oversold territory. The MACD is negative and diverging, pointing to lower prices in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 40 DMA at 506.47; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 500 and 493.90. On the upside, a break of 10 DMA at 510.34 and then 517.60 may prompt futures to retest recent highs at 523. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the longer term. Long upper and lower wicks point to some uncertainty regarding the downside momentum; however, the future needs to break below 40 DMA to confirm the outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged higher yesterday as trading saw prices close at 212.15. The stochastics are close to the oversold but %K struggled to break towards that area, and the MACD diff is positive and showed first signs of converging. A break of the 209.65 could trigger losses through 10 DMA at 205.35, with the tertiary level at 200. On the upside, a break above 217.85 could set the scene for bullish momentum towards 220. After the last session's market indecisiveness – the spinning top formation – as prices struggle above217.85, we could see more downside movement in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee edged higher yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite for prices at 2165, the market closed at 2145. Stochastics are rising, and %K/%D is seen diverging on the upside, confirming positive momentum. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming softening selling pressures. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 2173 and then target trend resistance at 2200. On the downside, the rejection of prices 2165 could trigger losses back to 2127 before targeting 2100. Buying pressure remains weak, and the doji candle confirms market uncertainty. The break below the support of 2127 could confirm the outlook of weaker prices.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after prices broke below the 40 DMA level, prompting a close on the back foot at 2632. The stochastics are falling and diverging, and the MACD diff is also diverging on the downside, outlining the weakness in the market. Selling pressure has been strong, yesterday's close below the key support levels suggests increased appetite for lower prices. A break of 38.2% fib level at 2601 could set the scene for lower prices at 2567. Alternatively, if prices can gain a footing back above the 40 DMA level at 2651, the bulls could then target 2675 in order to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to remain on the back foot in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 1820. The stochastics are falling, with %K seen tailing off marginally, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 1850 and then target a 123.6% fib level at 1866. The 50 DMA is closing in and supporting prices on the upside. However, a break below that level could set the scene for 1800 and then 1770. The narrow candle body with a longer lower wick points to a lack of appetite on the downside, but the futures need to break above current resistance to confirm the near-term outlook.
