NY Sugar 2nd Month Futures
NY futures buckled on Friday as intraday trading saw prices resistance at 19.44, prompting a break below the 100 DMA. The stochastics are improving but the rejection of resistance could trigger softness in the indicators. However, the MACD diff is now positive but prices need to take out resistance at 19.44 and the 40DMA in order to regain upside momentum. Conversely, Friday's selling pressure and close below the 100 DMA could trigger losses back towards 18.64, with secondary support at 18.31. Even though the indicators are trending higher, Friday's activity was weaker and this could trigger softness in the near term.
LDN Sugar 2nd Month Futures
LDN Sugar futures sold off on Friday as selling pressure triggered a close below 500 at 498.50. The stochastics are trending higher but have weakened since Friday. The MACD lacks conviction but is negative, Friday's selling pressure could trigger losses back towards 493.90, a breach of this level could set the scene for a test of the 100 DMA at 485.65 in the medium term. On the upside, there is a band of support between 493 and 500, and appetite for prices at this level could trigger gains back through the 40DMA at 505.64. In the longer run, prices need to take out 525 to indicate a continuation of the trend.
NY Coffee 2nd Month Futures
NY coffee futures gained ground on Friday as prices were supported at trend support, triggering a close at 206.65. The stochastics are trending lower but we could see a buy signal on the horizon as the stochastics converge. The MACD diff is negative but prices have been bid at trend support, but futures need to take out near term resistance at 209.65. Secondary resistance stands at 217 and a break of this level, in the long run, would help confirm the ascending triangle. On the downside, resistance at 209 could trigger losses back through trend support, with the 40 DMA next in line at 198.55. We expect the market to continue to trend higher through 209.
Ldn Coffee 2nd Month Futures
Ldn coffee prices firmed on Friday as support at 2173 held firm, triggering a close at 2214. The stochastics are positive but hover just below overbought territory, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging. Friday's full candle suggests stronger buying pressure, this could set the scene for higher prices to 2279, secondary resistance stands at 2300. On the downside, a rejection of prices above 2200 could trigger losses back to 2173 and 2127. The longer-term trend is on the upside and if prices hold above the 40 DMA the trend will still be intact. We anticipate the market to remain on-trend in the near term.
NY Cocoa 2nd Month Futures
NY cocoa weakened on Friday after prices failed above 2600, causing a close at 2580. The stochastics are falling with a sell signal on the horizon which could cause them to weaken back towards oversold. The MACD diff is also negative. The rejection of the 40 DMA and break below 2600 may set the scene for a test of support at the 50% fib level at 2534. Prices have been well supported between 2534 and 2600 and this could trigger gains back towards 2675 before 2726. We expect futures to soften in the near term.
Ldn Cocoa 2nd Month Futures
Ldn cocoa sold off sharply on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 1718, below the 61.8% fib level. The DMI is rising on the downside outlining negative sentiment. The MACD diff is negative and diverging as the stochastics are oversold. The downside trend is strong and we expect it to continue in the near term. The full candle and close below the 61.8% fib level, we expect prices to break towards 1700 with the 50% fib level. In order to improve upside sentiment, prices need to gain a foothold above the 61.8% fib level before targeting 1750.
