NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar prices gained ground yesterday, triggering a close below the resistance level of 40 DMA at 19.39. The stochastics favour the upside, with the %K/%D seen diverging on the upside while about to enter the overbought territory, suggesting we could see prices improve in the near term. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, pointing to an improved outlook. The RSI is rising, and yesterday’s candle suggests we could see prices break above 40 DMA at 19.48 in the near term. In the medium term, futures need to hold above that level and then target 20.00 – last week’s highs. On the downside, a break below the 10 and 100 DMA support levels at 19.14 could trigger losses back to 18.64. The candle’s close above the previous day’s highs confirms that there is an appetite for higher prices, however, futures need to gain ground above near term resistance to confirm the outlook.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures strengthened marginally yesterday as moderate buying pressure triggered a close at 502.20. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D diverging on the upside. The MACD diff, however, is negative and struggles to point an outlook. On the upside, appetite above the 40 DMA level at 505.40 could trigger gains through 510 towards 520. On the downside, a complete break below the 10 DMA at the 501.23 level could trigger losses back towards 500. That level has been supporting futures prices, and a break below it would signal strong selling pressure. Longer upper wick signals appetite for higher prices, but futures struggled above 40 DMA to close higher.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures opened above a key support level of 210, but weakness prevailed during the day to close lower at 211.45. The RSI is falling, and %K is seen tailing off close to the overbought territory. The MACD diff is negative and about to converge on the upside, suggesting waning selling pressures. The indicators point to higher prices in the near term before a change of trend, and to confirm the rejection of the support; prices need to take out 209.65. A break below this level towards the 10 DMA level at 207.77 would confirm the stronger bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 214.80 level could trigger a test of 217.85; tertiary resistance stands at 220. A spinning top candle after a bearish one confirms uncertainty about the outlook for trend reversal.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures weakened yesterday but failed to break below the support level at 10 DMA and closed higher at 2204. The stochastics have converged on the downside, a clear sell signal. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. A break below 10 DMA at 2213 may pave the way for lower prices to 2173 with the tertiary level at 40 DMA at 2145. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above 10 DMA would suggest higher prices and a close above 2279, setting the scene for higher prices towards 2300. Yesterday’s bearish engulfing suggests an appetite for lower prices and could trigger a break of support today. The indicators are pointing to a further decline in prices in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday, as intraday trading prompted a test of support at 2466. The market closed at 2482. The stochastics are falling in the oversold but show signs of convergence, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging on the downside, suggesting bearish momentum in the near term. The prices have been supported above the 61.8% fib level at 2466. The fall below this level could trigger losses through 2436 and 2400. On the upside, a breach back above the resistance at 200 DMA at 2506 would bring into play the recent firm resistance of 50% fib level at 2534, confirming an inverse hammer formation. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, but we need to see a break of near term support to confirm the trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 1682. The stochastics are converging in the oversold, with %K/%D converging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. To confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 50% fib level at 1691 and then target 200 DMA at 1704. The 200 DMA is closing in and providing resistance for prices on the upside. If this holds firm, a break below that level could set the scene for a 38.2% fib level at 1662. A narrow candle body with a long upper wick points to a potential change in trend in the near term, and if the futures break above the 200 DMA, this would confirm the further bullish momentum.