NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures softened marginally yesterday, as moderate selling pressure prompted a close at 19.60. The stochastics are overbought but continue to diverge on the upside, and the MACD diff is positive and is showing signs of conversion, suggesting we could see a change of trend in the near term. A breach of 19.77 with strong volume could set the scene for prices to take out 20.00 before aiming for 20.10. On the downside, a break of 40 DMA support at 19.47, which held firm in the last couple of sessions, would strengthen the recent bearish candles and confirm the indicators pointing to a change of momentum. If futures break below this level, we could see prices test 10 DMA at 19.36 and 100 DMA at 19.21. Narrow candle body with long upper and lower wicks points to market uncertainty about the outlook, a spinning top formation, and we expect prices to remain broadly within range.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar gained ground yesterday but struggled above 514.20 before closing marginally lower at 511.90. The stochastics are rising, with %K now in the overbought territory, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming further buying pressures. This suggests we could see futures edge higher in the near term, with prices breaking above 517.60, before testing resistance at 520. On the downside, the candle found support at 510, and prices break through this level, we could see futures retreat back to 40 DMA at 506.50 before 10 DMA at 490.46. The narrow candle body with long upper and lower wicks after the three white soldiers formations points to uncertainty about higher price levels, and we expect futures to soften marginally today.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee prices gained ground yesterday, triggering a close above the support level of 40 DMA at 208.65. The stochastics are favouring the downside and are diverging towards oversold territory, suggesting we could see a reversal of position trend. The MACD diff is negative but struggles to point out an outlook. Yesterday’s candle with a long lower wick points to an appetite for higher prices, but resistance at the 10 DMA at 208.04 capped the gains on the upside. If futures break above this level, we could see prices test 209.65 before 218.85 resistance level, a recent high. On the downside, a break below the 40 DMA support level at 202.52 could trigger losses back to 200, breaking out of the ascending triangle formation. 10 and 40 DMA levels provide robust resistance and support levels, and futures need to break out of the current range to confirm the outlook in the longer term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee strengthened yesterday, as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 10 DMA at 2226. The stochastics are seen converging on the upside and the MACD diff is negative and converging. Long bullish candle body with short upper and lower wicks suggester strong buying pressure on the day; this could set the scene for higher prices above 10 DMA resistance of 2212, but prices struggled above that level in recent sessions. A break above would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to 2279. Alternatively, a breach of support of 2173 would strengthen the momentum on the downside. This could also trigger losses towards 40 DMA at 2158. The indicators point to a change of trend on the upside, and in order to confirm that, the futures need to break above 10 DMA resistance levels in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened yesterday as moderate selling pressure saw futures test appetite at 2436 once again to close higher at 2464. The stochastics are oversold but about to cross on the upside, a clear bullish signal. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming the outlook for higher prices in the near term. To confirm that trend, futures need to break above near term resistance at 2500, which could set the scene for prices to take out 200 DMA at 2506 before 10 DMA at 2513. On the downside, a break below robust support of 2436 would strengthen the bearish momentum into 2400. A bearish candle with a longer lower wick points to an appetite for higher prices, but near-term resistance capped the gains on the upside. We expect futures to strengthen today.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa softened yesterday, as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 1670. The stochastics have converged on the upside in the oversold, a strong buy signal, and the MACD diff is negative and continues to converge. On the upside, a break of trend resistance at 1680 could set the scene for higher prices towards 1700 before the 61.8% fib level at 1719. On the downside, support at 38.2% fib level at 1662 has been robust, and if this level does not hold firm, the secondary support stands at 1650. Narrowing resistance and firm support alongside bullish indicators point to a reversal of the trend, and we expect futures to strengthen in the near term.
