NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Prices edged lower on Friday as intraday trading saw futures close at 19.73. The stochastics are falling and the sell signal could trigger losses back towards 19.40. The 23.6% fib level is next in line at 19.19, the MACD diff is negative and converging indicating waning sentiment. A break below 19.20 and 19.00 would trigger losses back towards 18.60. On the upside, the market has been supported between 19.40-19.70 in recent weeks and this could set the scene for higher prices to 20.38 which is the key level. Superseding this level futures could trigger gains to 21. The indicators are weakening and we expect prices to edge lower in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Sugar futures buckled on Friday as selling pressure prompted a close on the back foot at 512.20. The stochastics are falling out of overbought, and have given a sell signal suggesting improving downside pressure. The MACD diff is positive but starting to converge, and further selling pressure today would trigger a test of the 40 DMA and near term resistance around 507. To confirm, the rejection of the ascending triangle futures need to break below these levels towards 500. Conversely, on the upside, the market has been well supported between 500-505 in recent weeks. If support is reaffirmed we could see futures push higher and re-test resistance at 525.63. The market needs to take out this level in order to confirm the trend on the upside.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Coffee prices consolidated on Friday as prices tested support and resistance triggering a close at 233.40. The stochastics are converging but remains in overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive and diverging as the ADX and DMI are also positive. The rejection of prices at 240 could set the scene for lower prices towards 220 in the near term, however, if prices hold above 200, momentum will remain on the upside and the affirmation of support at this level could trigger gains back towards 240 in the long term. Buying pressure is still a threat but futures need to break and close above 240 in high volume to regain conviction.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Coffee prices were well supported on Friday as appetite for prices below the 10 DMA triggered a close at 2245. The stochastics are falling but are in neutral territory, the MACD diff also lacks conviction. In order to confirm the outlook of lower prices towards the 40 DMA at 2177, superseding this level support stands at the lower trend channel. The repeated rejection of resistance at 2279 and weaker indicators suggest lower prices in the near term. However, futures remain near the highs despite the weaker indicators and improved selling pressure suggesting the trend is likely to remain intact. Prices need to break above 2279 in order to regain upside momentum.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Cocoa futures consolidated on Friday as intraday trading prompted the market to test support around the 50% fib level, prompting a close at 2583. The stochastics are rising with the %K in overbought territory but prices need to break above 2600 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. The MACD diff is positive and diverging as well but Friday's candle indicates increased selling pressure but the partial recovery suggests robust appetite for prices between 2450 and 2567. On the downside, a resumption of selling pressure today and resistance at 2600 could set the scene for lower prices towards 2450. A breach of this level would help reaffirm downside momentum.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa prices consolidated the recent gains on Friday after prices tested appetite at 1705 but closed at 1722. The stochastics are rising with the %k overbought and the MACD diff is also positive and diverging suggesting higher prices in the near term. The recovery and close back above 1720 could set the scene for higher prices to 1750. However, the hanging man candle indicates we could see futures decline back towards 1700 with secondary support standing at 1690. Strong selling pressure in robust volumes would help confirm the outlook of lower prices and a continuation of the longer-term downtrend. Near term, momentum is on the upside shown by the indicators but selling pressure.
