NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures sold off on Friday as lack of appetite for higher prices helped to confirm the rejection of bullish momentum, the market closed at 18.94. Stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside, MACD diff just converged on the downside, a strong sell signal. The sell-off on Friday and a break of key support levels suggest strong selling pressure, and a complete break below 19.00 support would confirm the outlook for lower prices. A break below 18.57 could set the scene for a test of trend support at 18.30. On the upside, support around 19.00 would help reaffirm that the sell-off was temporary and would not lead to further downside pressures in the longer term. The futures would have to break back above 40 and 100 DMA at 19.40 to confirm this. Longer lower wick points to a lack of appetite for prices below 19.00.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures lost ground on Friday as selling pressure intensified, prices closed at 499.60. The MACD diff diverging on the downside, suggesting strengthening selling pressure, the RSI and %K/%D are falling towards the oversold. To help confirm the selling pressure from the stochastics, prices need to break below the 100 DMA at 496.68 down towards 490, a key support level. On the upside, if futures can find support back above the 40 DMA at 507.01, this could set the scene for higher prices back above 10 DMA at 511.86 before targeting 517.60. Selling pressure on Friday and a break below trend support could point to a break of ascending triangle pattern, futures need to continue falling. Long lower wick points to a lack of appetite below 100 DMA, and a break of this level would confirm a strong bearish momentum in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures failed above the previous day’s highs on Friday as intraday trading caused them to close at 242.95. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D seen converging in the overbought territory; the MACD diff is positive but losing momentum, pointing to waning buying pressures. The rejection of prices at 244.75 has formed a candle with a short body but a longer lower wick, confirming a lack of appetite for higher prices. If prices were to break back above that level, this could trigger a test of 248.20 and then 250. To confirm another bearish candle, futures need to take out support at 240 and then at 10 DMA at 233.04. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee held the nerve on Friday, causing futures to close at 2237. RSI is rising marginally, and %K/%D has converged on the downside and now falling. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, pointing to further selling pressures. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 10 DMA at 2250 and then target 2279. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 10 DMA could trigger losses back to 40 DMA at 2194 and then 2173, a firm support level. Buying pressure has been weak, and the indicators point to a continuation of selling momentum despite Friday’s bullish candle. Indeed, the narrow candle body and short wicks confirm market uncertainty for higher prices. The break of support at 40 DMA could confirm the outlook for lower prices in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures sold off sharply on Friday once again as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot below 2400 at 2396. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D is diverging, the RSI is also falling. The MACD diff has given a sell signal, as it converged on the downside; this could set the scene for lower prices towards below the 76.4% fib level at 2396. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices and a test of 2360. On the upside, the 100 DMA at the 2510 level is the next resistance level, and if there is appetite above that level, we could see prices test 2515. We expect prices to weaken in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 1657. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D is diverging on the downside, the RSI is also falling. The MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming recent selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices below 1650. A break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices. On the upside, a break back above 200 DMA resistance level at 1707 and appetite above 61.8% fib level at 1719 could strengthen the trend on the upside. Futures need to take out 1650 in order to confirm the outlook of lower prices.