NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar edged higher on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite for prices at 23.6% fib level once again, the market closed below at 19.32. Stochastics are rising, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside, confirming positive momentum. The MACD diff is positive and diverging. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 23.6% fib level at 19.41 and then target 100 DMA at 19.53, which is the last weeks’ highs. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 19.50 could trigger losses below 40 DMA level at 19.20 before targeting 19.00. The futures are bound by 100 and 40 DMA on both upside and downside, and the doji candle confirms market uncertainty about the price outlook. To confirm the indicators’ outlook for higher prices, the reaffirmation of support above 100 DMA needs to take place.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 508.40. The stochastics are rising towards the overbought, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming upside momentum. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 520, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance at 510 beforehand, the level it struggled to break last week. On the downside, support around 40 and 100 DMAs at 503.23 and 500, respectively, are also robust, and if these levels do not hold firm, we could see prices retreat back through to 10 DMA at 495.08. Longer upper wick on Friday points to the appetite for higher prices, however, futures need to take out 510 in order to confirm the outlook on the upside.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures weakened on Friday as lack of appetite for higher prices helped to confirm the rejection of bullish momentum; the market closed 232.60. Stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside, MACD is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The weakness on Friday and close on the lows suggest strong selling pressure, and the break below the 10 DMA support at 238.86 confirms the outlook for lower prices. A break below 228.10 could set the scene for a test of support at the 40 DMA at 221.66. On the upside, appetite back above 10 DMA at 238.86 would help reaffirm the longer-term upside trend. The key level is at 40 DMA, and if futures break below this level could set the scene for lower prices in the medium term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures softened on Friday after prices failed above the 2300 level, prompting a close on the back foot at 2291. The stochastics are rising but converging, with %K seen tailing off, and the MACD diff is also converging on the downside, outlining the weakness in the market. Selling pressure has been weak, and so the futures need to break below the 2268 level to confirm the weakness. The 40 DMA at the 2229 level has been robust, and we do expect this level to remain to hold in the near term. A break below this level, however, could set the scene for trend support at 2224. Alternatively, if prices can gain a footing above the 2334 levels, the bulls could then target 2340 in order to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to remain on the back foot in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa held the nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close below 61.8% fib level once again at 2466. RSI is rising marginally, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside, confirming the positive momentum in the near term. The MACD is also positive and diverging on the upside. To confirm the bullish trend, prices need to close above 61.8% fib level at 2472 and then target the 40 DMA at 2526. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 2500 could trigger losses below the 10 DMA level at 2432 before targeting 2400. Buying pressure has been weak, but the indicators point to an acceleration of that momentum. The break of resistance at 2500 could confirm the outlook for higher prices in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures softened on Friday after piercing the support level of 10 DMA. The market closed marginally lower at 1670. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen converging on the downside, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, paving the way for lower prices in the near term. The reaffirmation of support at 10 DMA at 1672 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 61.8% fib level at 1691 before 1700. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 1650 and 1629 in order to confirm the bearish trend. The 10 DMA support level has been robust in recent weeks, and a break below this level as well as weakening indicators help confirm the outlook for lower prices in the near term.