NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures have edged lower in recent sessions as sentiment has weakened and prices have broken below 18.57, to close at 18.47. The stochastics are falling but still lack conviction, the MACD diff is marginally negative. We expect futures to decline towards the 38.2% fib level at 18.11 before the psychological level at 18. A break of this level would confirm the descending triangle and indicate further losses to 17.24 at the 50% fib level. On the upside, futures need to regain a footing above the lower trend channel and the 40 DMA at 19.06. We expect prices to edge lower in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading saw prices supported below 490 and closed at 490.70. The indicators are weakening with the stochastics and RSI falling but to improve market sentiment, futures need to break below 480. A break of 480 below would help to confirm the bearish pennant and prompt a break out towards 471.80. On the upside, an appetite for prices below 490 could set the scene for higher prices towards 500. The rejection of this level and would strengthen the outlook of lower prices in the near term. We anticipate prices to soften in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Futures rallied yesterday as appetite for prices at trend support prompted a break above 230 and a test of 236. The market closed at 231.80. The stochastics are rising and have given a buy signal, the MACD diff is negative but converging and this outlines improving momentum on the upside. The close above 230 could set the scene for higher prices, futures need to take out yesterday's high at 235.65 and then 240 to confirm bullish sentiment. On the downside, rejection of prices above 230 could set the scene for lower prices back through trend support and then test 220. Sentiment is improving and this could set the scene for higher prices towards 240. The reaffirmation of trend support strengthens the outlook on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London prices found support below 2327 yesterday this triggered the market to close at 2349. The stochastics are overbought but the MACD diff is positive and converging suggesting an improvement of selling pressure. The RSI is falling and yesterday's activity suggests an improvement of selling pressure but the downside tail indicates a buying pressure. The long term trend is firmly intact but the softening indicators could trigger losses back to trend support. A break of this level would set the scene for lower prices towards 2200. On the upside, futures need to take out 2381 before targeting 2400. We could see futures decline in the near term as sentiment weakens.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa prices declined yesterday a selling pressure prompted a break of the 40 and 200 DMA. Prices found support below 2500 and closed at 2502. The stochastics are falling towards neutral territory with the MACD diff converging in positive territory. The rejection of resistance at 2600 needs to be confirmed and a break of 2436 and then 2400. This would also confirm the rejection of the inverse head and shoulders. On the upside, if prices can find support between 2475.81 and 2500 this could set the scene for higher prices towards 2600 where resistance has held firm. Volumes have been low and the recent sell-off lacks conviction but we expect prices to weaken towards 2475.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa prices sold off yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to break support at 1700 and test 1691. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff is converging, and yesterday's candle suggests a strengthening outlook on the downside. A breach of support in 1691 may set the scene for a test of 1666. On the upside, if support holds firm this could trigger gains towards 1750 which traders have rejected in recent weeks. The on-balance volumes shows mild selling pressure basis historical levels but we expect prices to soften further.
