NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar held the nerve on Friday as futures failed to close above the 10 DMA once again. RSI is rising marginally, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside out of the oversold area. The MACD is about to converge on the upside, confirming the continuation of buying momentum. To maintain that, prices need to break completely above 10 DMA at 18.02 and then target 18.50. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 18.00 could trigger losses back to 17.66 before targeting 17.50. Buying pressure has been weak, with volume falling as much as 50% in the last week, as the futures struggled to break above the 10 DMA resistance line, forming narrow candle bodies. The futures need to break above this level to confirm the positive indicators.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged higher on Friday, closing at 493.30. The stochastics are diverging towards the overbought territory, and the MACD diff just converged on the upside, a strong buy signal. On the upside, futures need to break completely above 40 and 100 DMAs at 496.09 and 502.37, respectively, in order to confirm upside momentum. Appetite above these levels could trigger gains towards the level at 510; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. A break back below the current support at 10 DMA at 485.95 would bring into play 481.50. which could set the scene for support at 477. We see prices edge higher in the near term, highlighted by recent bullish momentum and positive indicators, however, futures need to close above the current resistance to confirm the outlook for higher prices.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures softened on Friday however, prices struggled below 40 and 10 DMAs and closed higher at 239.55. The stochastics are edging higher, now in the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and fluctuated in the last couple of days. The rejection of higher prices above 240 may prompt a break back towards support at 10 and 40 DMA at 234, a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 229.65. On the upside, a break of 240 may prompt futures to test resistance at 244.75. A close below the previous day lows point to softening buying pressure. If the futures break below the DMAs support, then this would confirm the change of trend to more bearish.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures weakened during the day on Friday after breaking trend support. The market closed at 2228. The stochastics continue to soften, but %K is showing signs of tailing off, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see lower prices before the change of trend. On the downside, futures need to weaken below 2291 in order to confirm downside momentum in the longer term, with the secondary support at 2173. Conversely, a break back the trend resistance at 2244 could set the scene for resistance at 2279 before 10 DMA at 2293. A longer lower wick, where most of the trading took place in the upper ranges, points to a lack of appetite for lower prices, and we could see the bearish trend soften today.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures leapt higher on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close above 2653 at 2698. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D is diverging, with %K now in the overbought. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging. On the upside, an appetite above 2726 could trigger gains through 2800 towards 2812. On the downside, a break below the 2653 level could trigger losses back towards 2600. A breach here would signal a strong selling pressure. Longer upper wick, which was nearly as long as the body, signals weakening upside momentum, and with the indicators in the overbought, we expect to see a change of trend in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa jumped on Friday, as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 1799. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D is diverging on the upside towards the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging. Long bullish candle body with short wicks suggested strong buying pressure on Friday; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the 1813 resistance if the momentum holds. This would confirm the trend for rising prices and a break of 1837 is a medium term target. On the downside, a breach of support at 1767 would strengthen the trend switch to more bearish. This could also trigger losses towards the 100 DMA at 1753. Indicators point to higher prices, however, futures need to break above 1800 to confirm the outlook.