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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures leapt higher yesterday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 18.42. The stochastics are rising, with the %K/%D diverging on the upside, as the MACD diff just converged on the upside, a strong buying pressure. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 18.57 before testing the 40 DMA level at 18.67. On the downside, the candle found support at 18.17, and if the prices break through this level, we could see prices retreat back through the 10 DMA at 18.02 before 17.66. The evening star formation with long upper and no lower wick points to market uncertainty about higher prices, and futures need to break above the near term resistance to confirm the indicators outlook for higher prices.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 499.10. The RSI is rising, and %K is now overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting a further appetite for higher prices, but futures need to break above the 100 DMA level at 502.20 to trigger the momentum. A break above this level towards trend resistance, now at 507.78, would confirm the strong bullish momentum. Conversely, an appetite for prices below the 40 DMA at 495.32 could trigger a test of support of 490.30. A long-legged doji candle shows indecision about either direction as it traded between 40 and 100 DMA levels; the length of the wicks also points to increased volatility during the day. The indicators point to a further rise in prices, but futures need to close above 100 DMA, the level they struggled to break above in the last couple of months.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures gained marginal ground yesterday as trading triggered a close at 239.50. The stochastics are about to converge on the downside near the overbought, as the MACD diff remains positive but flat, signalling a weakening bullish sentiment. This suggests we could see prices remain within the current range in the near term, but in order to suggest a change of sentiment on the downside, the market needs to take out immediate support at 10 DMA at 236.24, before 229.65. On the upside, resistance at 244.75 is robust, and if this level does not hold firm, we could see prices gain ground back through the 250 before 252.35. Longer upper wick points to a lack of appetite above 240, however, the 10 DMA just crossed above 40 DMA, which could provide further support the futures might struggle to break. We expect prices to remain within range today.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower yesterday after prices broke below 100 DMA to close at 2195. The stochastics are trading in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative, suggesting perseverance of lower prices before a possible change of trend on the upside. To confirm the rejection of prices above 2210, futures need to completely break below the 100 DMA level at 2205 and then target trend support at 2200. On the upside, futures need to close above 2210 and then target 10 DMA at 2263 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 40 DMA at 2290. Short wicks point to the certainty of bearish momentum, but futures need to break below 2173 to confirm this trend in the long run.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures failed above the previous day’s highs yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 2679. The stochastics are beginning to converge in the oversold, with %K seen tailing off, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, but the rate of growth has softened drastically, suggesting a change of trend in the near term. If prices were to break back above Friday’s highs of 2726, this could trigger a test of 2750 and then 2765. To confirm indicators stalling buying pressure, futures need to take out 2675 and then robust support at 2653. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures edged lower yesterday, causing the market to close at 1810. The stochastics are rising but seen converging, with %K seen tailing off in the overbought, while the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting higher prices in the near term before some downside correction. To confirm the outlook of lower prices, futures need to close below 1800 and then target a 61.8% fib level at 1767. However, a break above 76.4% fib level of 1813 could set the scene for 1837 and then 1850. The narrow candle body with a long lower wick point to market uncertainty about further upside momentum, and the futures need to break below the current support to confirm the near-term outlook.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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