NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot below 18.00 at 17.86. The stochastics are falling, and RSI is also falling. The MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices towards 17.66 before 17.50. A break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices and a three black crows pattern formation. On the upside, a break above the 18.17 resistance level and appetite above 10 DMA at 18.36 could strengthen the trend on the upside in the long run. Futures need to take out the DMA in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. The long body points to an increased appetite for lower prices, and indicators confirm the outlook for more downside momentum in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Prices weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 486.50. The stochastics are falling; the %K/%D are diverging towards the oversold, signalling a continuation of the bearish trend. The MACD crossed on the downside, a strong sell signal, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term. Prices tested 484.50, however, a close above and a short wicks support market indecisiveness below that level. On the upside, a break above 490 could see the test of 40 DMA level 494 before 10 DMA at 496. Conversely, a break below the 484.50 support line could set the scene for a test of 480. We expect prices to soften today and remain on the back foot.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee held its nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 236.45. RSI is rising marginally, and stochastics are diverging on the downside, but %K is seen tailing off. Likewise, the MACD is diverging on the downside, confirming recent selling pressure. To regain positive momentum, prices need to close above 10 DMA at 238.51 and then target 240. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 10 DMA could trigger losses back to the trend support and then 229.65, the long-term support level. The indicators, in particular the stochastics, point to a possible end of the bearish trend, but futures would need to break completely below 40 DMA at 235.45.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee strengthened on Friday, as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2184. The stochastics are oversold, with %K/%D is seen converging on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and converging. A bullish candle with a longer lower wick suggests growing buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the resistance at 2200. This would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to 2100. On the downside, a breach of support at 2173 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the 23.6% fib level at 2129. Indicators point to a possible change of trend, and if futures break above near term resistance, we would expect to gain positive momentum in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures gained ground on Fri day as protracted buying pressure breached the 2540 level to close on the front foot at 2546. The stochastics are falling, the K% decline is slowing in the oversold, highlighting returning buying pressures. The MACD diff is negative but did not change day-on-day, pointing to stalling selling pressure. To confirm another bullish candle, futures need to close above 2567 and then target 2600. On the downside, the break below 2500 could set the scene for lower prices towards the support of 61.8% fib level at 2475. However, the market struggled below that level in recent sessions, and the bullish engulfing pattern suggests a strong buy signal. We believe that prices will strengthen in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures gained ground on Friday as moderate buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 1732. The stochastics are falling, but the %K is seen tailing off in the oversold, as the MACD diff is negative. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 1750, before testing the 61.8% fib level 1767. On the downside, the candle found support at the 200 DMA level at 1711, and if the prices break through this level, we could see prices retreat back through the trend support before 1700. The indicators point to a change of trend, and to confirm this, futures need to completely break above 1730 in the near term.
