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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures weakened yesterday but struggled to close below the support at 17.48. The stochastics and the MACD diff both have converged on the downside, a strong sell signal. A break below 17.48 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 17.29, with the tertiary level at 17.00, confirming the descending triangle. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support at 17.50 would suggest higher prices and a close above 10 DMA at 17.74, setting the scene for higher prices towards 18.00. The indicators and continued bearish candles suggest further downside pressures, but futures need to break below the near term support to confirm this.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Lnd sugar futures continued their decline yesterday after closing near the lows at 473.20. The stochastics have converged on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further downside momentum. A break below 471.80 would bring into play the trend support at 468. Conversely, on the upside, futures need to find the appetite for prices above 480 and then break above the 10 DMA at 483.69 in order to confirm upside momentum. The indicators point to a bearish outlook, but the futures need to break below 471.80, the previous month’s lows, to confirm further downside impetus.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee prices gained ground yesterday appetite for prices above 10 DMA, triggering a close at 251.75. The stochastics favour the downside, with the %K/%D stochastics leaving the overbought territory, suggesting we could see prices deteriorate in the near term. The MACD diff is positive and converging. On the upside, futures need to break above 252.35 before 260. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA support level at 248.35 could trigger losses back to 244.75. A break of the 10 DMA support level would confirm the indicators’ outlook for lower prices in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices held their nerve yesterday as moderate buying pressure triggered a close below the 40 DMA level; the market closed at 2265. The stochastics are rising; with the %K now in the overbought. The MACD is positive but lacked the conviction to point out the outlook. The futures have been trading in a narrow range between the support and resistance of the DMAs; in order to confirm the negative momentum, prices need to break below the current support at 10 and 100 DMA at 2238 and 2231, respectively. Conversely, support at 2250 could set the scene for a test of 40 DMA at 2262. We expect prices to continue to t5rade range bound today.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after breaking below the support of 10 DMA. The market closed at 2722. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through support at 2726. A break below this level would bring into play the 2700 level, which could set the scene for support at 2675. On the upside, futures need to gain a footing back above 2780 – the previous day’s high - in order to confirm upside momentum. Appetite for higher prices here could trigger gains towards the level at 2800; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The longer two closes near the lows points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could see prices edge lower in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Lnd cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as prices struggled to break below 1800 once again, and the market closed at 1809. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen diverging on the downside, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, outlining the recent decline in prices after the rejection of prices at the 1837 level. Appetite above that level could trigger gains towards 1850 and 1859. In the long run, resistance at 1888 needs to be broken to regain upside conviction. Conversely, a breach of support at 1800 may set the scene for lower prices to 61.8% fib level at 1767. If futures take out of this level, this would reaffirm the trend on the downside. We expect prices to weaken in the near term.

Contents

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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