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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY market is closed today for President's Day. NY sugar futures gained pace at the start of the day on Friday; however, prices struggled above 10 DMA once again and closed on the back foot at 17.62. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen diverging on the downside towards the oversold. The MACD, however, lacks the conviction to point out an outlook as it flips between positive and negative territory. The rejection of higher prices at 10 DMA at 17.73 may prompt a break back towards support at 17.48; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 17.29. On the upside, a break of 10 DMA may prompt futures to test 18.00 before 40 DMA at 18.11. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the near term. An open above the previous day’s close on Friday and long upper wick point to an appetite out of the current trading range, and 10 DMA remains a robust resistance. If this level holds, we would expect prices to trace lower in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures struggled to break above 10 DMA resistance on Friday, and intraday trading saw prices close below at 478.30. The RSI is falling, but %K and %D are showing signs of convergence, as %K is tailing off out of the oversold, which could signal a change of momentum to more bullish in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and converging marginally, suggesting some appetite for higher prices, but futures need to break the resistance of 10 DMA at 481.88 to trigger the momentum. A break above this level towards 40 DMA at 488.49 would confirm the stronger positive momentum. Conversely, lack of appetite for prices below 471.80 trigger a test of trend support of 466. A gravestone doji candle shows rejection of lower prices but lacked the conviction to break above the near term resistance levels in the form of moving averages.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures softened on Friday after breaking below the support of 10 DMA. The market closed at 246. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through support of 244.75. A break below this level would bring into play the 40 DMA level 239.13. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 10 DMA at 250.64 in order to confirm upside momentum. Appetite for higher prices here could trigger gains towards the level at 254.75; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The longer lower wick points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could see prices edge lower in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 2255. The stochastics have converged on the downside and are now falling, with the %K/%D diverging out of the overbought, signalling a strengthening downside momentum. The MACD is positive and converging. In order to confirm the indicators, prices need to break below the current resistance at 10 and 40 DMA levels at 2255 and 2257, respectively, and then 100 DMA at 2235. Conversely, a break above the 2279 resistance line could set the scene for a test of 2300. Prices need to break below the near term DMA support levels to confirm the downside momentum.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures broke below support at 2653 and closed on the back foot at 2640. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen diverging on the downside. The MACD is negative and diverging, confirming the momentum for further downside impetus. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break towards support at 40 DMA at 2622, a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 2600. On the upside, a break of resistance at 2653 may prompt futures to test 2675. We have seen strong downside momentum in the last week, but growing upper and lower wicks could point to a slowdown in the recent bearish trend.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday after failing above the trend support level. The market closed lower at 1732. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just diverging on the downside, with %K now in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 50% fib at 1730 in order to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. Indeed, the trend support level has been robust in the last couple of months, a break below this level would suggest strong conviction on the downside. Alternatively, the reaffirmation of support at 1730 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 50 DMA level at 1752 once again, confirming an inverse hammer formation.

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Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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