NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar weakened on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a test of the lower Bollinger Band (LBB) and a close at 17.60. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside, whereas the RSI has edged lower. The MACD diff is positive and converging. Full bearish candle with short wicks suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the LBB support level at 17.49. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 17.29. On the upside, resistance at the upper Bollinger Band 18.04 has proven to be strong in recent days, and appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 18.17. Narrowing support and resistance levels are creating a narrow trading range, but we believe that the prices will fall lower today.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures softened marginally on Friday as moderate selling pressure saw futures test 10 MA at 480.05. The future closed at 482.30. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming recent selling pressures. On the upside, futures need to break above the resistance at 40 DMA at 486.95, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 490.30 level. On the downside, the market needs to take out support at 10 DMA at 480.05 and then LBB support at 472.79. The indicators point to falling prices, and we could see further softness in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Prices weakened on Friday as selling pressure triggered a close at 238.65. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. The stochastics are falling, and now the %K is in the oversold territory. The RSI is also falling, but the inside day yesterday suggests a continuation of the recent trend on the upside. Dips in the market have been well bid, and a recent candle break below the trend support could point to further downside momentum, but recent support at 237.25 seems to have been broken below today, meaning prices could break above 244.75 and then 10 DMA at 247.24. Conversely, a fall below the recent support could trigger losses to LBB at 232.55. The indicators point to further downside momentum, but candles need to break below the near term support.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee softened on Friday as moderate selling pressure prompted a test of the LBB level of 2162, closing at 2178. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D diverging on the downside, suggesting further momentum on the downside. The MACD diff is negative and is diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The red candle body being within the previous day’s down candle suggests that there is a lack of appetite below near-term support. In order to confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below LBB 2162 and then take out 21.6% fib level at 2137 to regain downside momentum. On the upside, the market needs to break above 2200, which could set the scene for a test of 2210. Near term momentum favours the downside, and we expect this to remain the case in the near term, but futures need to break below the near term support.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened on Friday as moderate selling pressure saw prices test support at 2600. The market closed at 2614. The RSI is falling marginally, and %K/%D is diverging on the downside, now in the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support, prices need to take out 2600. A break below this level towards 2567 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 40 DMA at 2635 could trigger a test of resistance at 2653; tertiary resistance stands at 2675. A small candle body with a longer upper wick points to a lack of appetite below 2600, so to confirm the indicators, futures need to break below the level.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged higher on Friday after buying pressure prompted a test of 100 DMA at 1743. The market closed at 1729. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D edging below in the oversold. However, the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting a shift of momentum in the near term. The prices have been supported above the 200 DMA at 1724. The fall below this level could trigger losses through 1700 and LBB at 1692. On the upside, a breach back above 50 DMA at 1755 would bring into play the recent firm resistance of a 20 Bollinger Band at 1780, confirming an inverse hammer formation. Futures need to take out the near term resistance in order to confirm the trend on the upside. The convergence of DMAs provides strong support/resistance for prices, and if 200 DMA remain firm, we could see prices edge higher.
