NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY futures failed to break resistance at 18.84, and this triggered a close at 18.61. The RSI is rising and the MACD diff has converged and this could trigger losses in the near term. The stochastics are falling and the gap between them suggest further downside in the near term. Buying pressure yesterday failed to take hold and volumes were low, in order to regain upside conviction, futures need to break 18.84 and then 19.00. The upside tail outlines the rejection of higher prices, we could see futures decline through support at 18.50, towards the 40 DMA at 18.21. The longer term level on the downside is 17.50. The indicators suggests a weaker outlook and prices could soften in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Sugar futures edged higher yesterday after buying pressure caused a test of the 10 DMA, this prompted futures to close at 512.70. The stochastics are falling and the gap between the stochastics suggests downside momentum. The rejection of resistance yesterday could set the scene for lower prices through support at 510.70. This would confirm the rejection of the 10 DMA and descending triangle, a break of 510 would set the scene for lower prices towards the upper trend channel around 500. On the upside, if support at 510 holds firm, this could set the scene for higher prices towards the 10 DMA once again. The next level is 520, and a break here would set the scene for higher prices but we would need to see greater volumes to confirm conviction.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures posted an inside day yesterday as futures were bid at 213 and this triggered a close at 216.50. The stochastics are rising but are still in oversold territory, the MACD diff is negative and starting to converge suggesting an improved outlook. The RSI is falling and the rejection of resistance at 221 could trigger losses through 210. A break of support at this level would set the scene for lower prices through to 200, this would help confirm the descending triangle. On the upside, if support holds firm, we could see futures break above 220 and the 10 DMA. We expect the market to remain between 210 and 220, the downside risk is evident in the immediate term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee prices consolidated the previous gains, the market was supported below 2125 and closed at 2139. The stochastics are rising towards overbought and the MACD diff is positive but lacks conviction. Lack of appetite above the 23.6t% fib level, could set the scene for lower prices back to 2078. The reaffirmation of support at this level would keep the market on the front foot. We have seen futures well bid below the 23.6% fib level in the immediate term, a break of the 40 DMA would trigger gains towards the 100 DMA. We expect the market to push higher as the inside day suggests a continuation of the trend. While this morning's activity is to the downside, we expect the 10 DMA to hold firm in the near term and this could trigger gains. Conversely repeated rejection of resistance could set the scene for lower prices to and a break through 2078.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Cocoa prices sold off yesterday to test support at 61.8%, this level held firm and the market partially recovered to close at 2536. The stochastics are falling towards oversold and the MACD diff is negative, we expect the market to decline in the near term as sentiment is on the back foot. Support below 2500 has been strong, we expect this level to hold firm and this has been shown by the downside tails. The reaffirmation of support at 2500 could set the scene for higher prices towards 2600. A break below 2500 could trigger losses in the near term towards 2436 where again the market has been supported, we see a band of support between 2436 and 2500.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures closed down on the day but above the previous day's close. The market closed at 1724. The stochastics are falling, and have broken below neutral suggesting lower prices in the near term, the MACD diff lacks conviction. The RSI is rising but is also neutral, the market has been supported at 1700 and we expect to see futures edge higher in the near term. Resistance at 1750 is first inline and a break of this level could trigger gains towards to the 61.8% fib level at 1767.29. Conversely, rejection of this level would set the scene for lower prices through 1700.
