NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure saw prices test 19.50 resistance once again. The market closed at 19.46. The RSI is falling, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, highlighting recent buying pressures, but with stochastics being overbought, we could see a change of momentum in the near term. To confirm the change of trend, futures need to reject the support at 10 DMA at 19.01, and then prices need to take out 100 DMA at 18.64. A break below this level towards 18.50 would confirm the double top formation and a subsequent bearish momentum. Conversely, an appetite for prices above the 19.50 level could trigger a test of 20.00. Friday’s candle was strong but struggled to break above the near term support, and indicators point to a change of momentum; to confirm the resistance at 19.50 needs to hold firm.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 547. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are diverging in the overbought. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming recent buying pressures, but the %K is already showing signs of tailing off, and we could see a change of momentum in the near term. On the downside, a break back below the 540 level could trigger losses back towards 10 DMA at 527.87. The 10 DMA was supporting futures prices last week, and a break below this level to 520 would send a strong sell signal. On the upside, finding support above the 540 could trigger gains through 550 to 564.50 – February 2017 highs. The close near highs that the buying pressure was strong yesterday, and this is backed by the strong volume since March 3rd, but futures need to break above the resistance of 550 to confirm the continuation of momentum.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures softened on Friday after testing the support level of 10 DMA once again. The market closed higher at 221.80. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging. The appetite back below 10 DMA at 220.57 could set the scene for lower prices back to test the 212.60 level, the recent lows. On the upside, futures need to break above the near term resistance of 23.6% fib level at 227.95 in order to confirm the upside trend, confirming the hammer formation. Indeed, the 10 DMA support level has been robust in the last couple of sessions, and a hammer candle formation could point to upside momentum in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee gained ground on Friday, as marginal buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2148. The stochastics continue to fall, with %K/%D have converged on the downside and now falling out of the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging. The indicators point to intensifying downside momentum; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the support at 2100. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 2078. On the upside, a breach of resistance at 40 DMA at 2167 would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards 2200. Indicators point to lower prices, and with futures breaking below the 10 DMA support level, we expect to see prices continue to decline today.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures opened below Thursday’s close but managed to hold its nerve during the day and closed marginally higher at 2600. The stochastics are pointing to growing downside momentum, with RSI declining and %K tailing off on the downside. Likewise, MACD diff is positive and converging. To confirm the indicators’ outlook, futures need to break support at 10 DMA at 2581, which could trigger losses through 200 DMA at 2554, with the tertiary level at 2500. On the upside, a break above 38.2% fib level at 2620 could set the scene for bullish momentum towards 40 DMA at 2637. After the last session’s market indecisiveness – the spinning top formation – as prices struggle below 10 DMA, we could see more downside movement in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged lower on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 1747. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D about to converge on the downside, a strong sell signal; the MACD diff is positive and converging. A break of the 100 and 200 DMAs at 1735 could trigger losses through trend support at 1718. On the upside, if the DMA support levels hold, we could see a break above previous sessions’ highs at 1796 and a test of 1800. Yesterday’s bearish spinning top formation points to market indecisiveness about the outlook for higher prices, and we need the futures to break support of 100 and 200 DMAs to confirm the indicators’ outlook.
