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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures buckled yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 19.01. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D is about to give a sell signal as it converges on the downside in the overbought; the RSI is also falling. The MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices below 19.00, but futures need to break below the 20 Bollinger band at 19.01. A break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices down to 40 DMA and lower Bollinger band (LBB) at 18.43. On the upside, a break above the 19.50 resistance level and appetite for higher prices could set the scene for the upper Bollinger band (UBB) at 19.58. Three line strike formation points to a continuation of an uptrend, but indicators suggest another decline today. To confirm this, futures need to break below the support at 20 Bollinger Band, the level the candle struggled to break below yesterday.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures sold off yesterday after futures failed above the 540 level, prompting a close on the back foot at 528.50. The stochastics are falling back out of the overbought territory, with %K/%D now having converged on the downside, a strong sell signal. The MACD diff is also converging on the downside, outlining the growing weakness in the market. Selling pressure has been strong, and this is outlined by the recent uptick in volumes, and yesterday's close on the low suggests lower prices below support at 10 DMA at 528.91. This support level has been robust, and if this level does not hold, we could see the futures fall to the 20 Bollinger band at 522.53, which would confirm the end of the recent uptrend. Alternatively, if prices can gain a footing above the UBB at 544.75, the bulls could then target 547.90 in order to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to remain on the back foot in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee edged higher yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test support at 212.60 once again; the market closed higher at 215.80. Stochastics are falling, and %K/%D is seen diverging on the downside. The MACD diff is positive and converging, highlighting further downside momentum. To suggest a trend change on the upside, prices need to close above 10 DMA at 220.23 and then target 20 Bollinger band resistance at 222.06 before trend resistance at 225. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 221 could trigger losses back to the LBB at 221.64 before targeting long-term trend support at 208.17, a break below which would confirm the descending triangle pattern. Buying pressure was weak yesterday, but the indicators are pointing to further downside momentum. To confirm this, the futures need to break below the 209.65 level in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures opened below Monday's close but managed to gain marginal ground yesterday as moderate buying pressure prompted a test of 20 Bollinger band support. The market closed at 2115. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting downside momentum in the near term. The prices have been capped below the 10 DMA at 2146. The fall below the 20 Bollinger band at the 2108 level could trigger losses through 2100 and 2078. On the upside, a breach back above the 23.6% fib level at 2137 would bring into play the recent firm resistance of 40 DMA at 2165, confirming an inverse hammer formation. Futures need to take out this level in order to confirm the trend on the upside. The DMAs provide strong resistance for prices, and the indicators suggest deteriorating momentum in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure prompted a close on the front foot at 2673. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside; the MACD is positive and diverging, highlighting the outlook for upside momentum in the near term. A break of resistance at 2667 could trigger gains to UBB at 2702, with tertiary resistance at 2726. On the downside, a break below the 38.2% fib level at the 2620 support level may set the scene for a correction to the downside. A break of that support could pave the way for lower prices through 10 DMA at 2598. Near term momentum is on the upside, a break above 2667 is needed to confirm the outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa strengthened yesterday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 1793. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside. The MACD diff is positive and diverging upside. A long bullish candle body with a short upper wick suggests growing buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the resistance at 1800, but prices struggled above that level in recent weeks. This would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to the UBB at 1814. On the downside, a breach of support at the 61.8% fib level at 1767 would strengthen the bearish momentum down to 1750. Indicators point to higher prices, and futures need to break above firm resistance at 1800 to confirm this.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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