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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures edged higher yesterday as intraday trading saw prices test resistance at 10 DMA. The market closed at 18.91. The RSI is rising, and %K/%D is falling but shows signs of convergence, as the %K is seen tailing off on the upside out of the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and converging, pointing to a change of trend in the near term. The indicators point to waning bearish momentum, and to confirm the rejection of the resistance, prices need to take out 10 DMA at 18.98. A break above this level towards the resistance of 40 DMA at 19.31 would confirm the growing upside momentum. Conversely, an appetite for prices below 18.83 could trigger a test of 100 DMA at 18.68. A short candle body after three strong bearish candles suggests uncertainty about lower prices. However, candles seem to be range-bound by 10 and 40 DMA levels from both sides, so to confirm the indicators, the futures need to break above the 10 DMA resistance level. 

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures gained ground yesterday after prices found support at the 100 DMA level, this triggered a close at 513.20. The RSI is rising, with %K/%D about to converge on the upside in the oversold, a strong buy signal, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting we could see futures test resistance at 10 DMA at 517.24 once again. If the futures breach this level, 40 DMA resistance at 527.94 is robust. On the downside, in order to confirm lower prices, futures need to close below the current support at 100 DMA at 505.95 and then 500. The 512.90 resistance level needs to be broken above before futures can target 10 DMA. We favour upside momentum in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices weakened yesterday as futures struggled to break above 40 DMA resistance once again, causing futures to close at 217.25. The MACD diff is positive and was flat yesterday, and the stochastics are fluctuating between upside and downside momentum in the oversold, confirming market uncertainty for prices out of the current range. The resistance of 40 DMA at 222.76 has been robust as prices struggled to break above it this and last week, and in order to suggest momentum on the upside and break out of the descending triangle, prices need to break 40 DMA and then trend resistance at 227. Conversely, to confirm the confirmation of resistance, the market needs to break below 212.60 before targeting 209.65. This would bring into play the support at 200.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged above the previous day's closing price, but the bullish momentum was not strong enough, and futures closed lower on the day at 2136. The stochastics continue to rise yet seen converging, with %K showing signs of slowing upward momentum in the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging. The rejection of prices at 23.6% fib level at 2137 has formed a candle with a narrow body but a long wick on the upside, a shooting star formation, suggesting an appetite for higher prices is waning. To confirm this, futures need to take out the 40 DMA at 2213 and then support at 10 DMA at 2096. If prices were to break above 2137, this could trigger a test of 100 DMA at 2190. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices, and the indicators' momentum.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted a break of support at 10 DMA to close on the back foot at 2511. The stochastics have converged on the downside and now are falling, a strong selling pressure, and the MACD diff just crossed on the downside, suggesting further weakness in the near term. The break of the key support level at 2500 would suggest an appetite for lower prices down to 2436. However, near term support has been robust in recent months. If prices find support at this level, this could prompt a recovery back above the 10 DMA at 2552 to 2600. In the medium term, we could see futures break above 2667 if the momentum continues. This level has provided strong resistance in recent weeks, and a close above this level would prompt prices to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to retreat in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures weakened yesterday as futures failed into the robust resistance at 1837 and closed at 1798. The stochastics are rising but converging on the downside. The MACD diff is positive and converging, pointing to a waning buying pressure. A break below 1800 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the triple top formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 61.8% fib level at 1767, with the tertiary level at 50 DMA at 1766. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above at 1800 would suggest higher prices and a close above 1813, setting the scene for higher prices back towards 18137. Yesterday's candle body suggests an appetite for lower prices, and the indicators are pointing to a further fall in prices in the near term. 



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

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