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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures weakened marginally yesterday after testing the support level of 100 DMA. The market closed higher at 18.66. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside, into the oversold once again. Likewise, the MACD diff is negative and diverging, pointing to growing selling pressures across the indicators. To confirm this, futures need to break below the support of 100 DMA at 18.67, down to 18.50. Indeed, the 100 DMA support level has been robust in the last couple of sessions, a break below this level suggests growing conviction on the downside. On the upside, reaffirmation of support at 18.83 could set the scene for higher prices back to breach the 10 DMA level at 18.95 up to 19.00, confirming an inverse hammer formation. The indicators confirm continued selling pressures, but with the oversold indicators and the inverse hammer formation, we could see another leg up in the near term; prices would need to break above the near term resistance to confirm this.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures softened yesterday after finding support above 100 DMA. The market closed at 508. The stochastics are seen converging on the downside in the oversold, but the MACD diff is negative and flat, suggesting we could see a change of trend in the near term. On the downside, a break below the 100 DMA level at 506.14 would bring into play the 500 level, which could set the scene for support at 490.30. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 10 DMA at 514.02 in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the level at 520; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The support at 100 DMA is robust, and with the indicators being oversold, we could see a change of trend on the upside in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 203.80. The stochastics are falling; the %K/%D is diverging on the downside in the oversold. The MACD is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term. Prices tested 202.30, however, a close above and a stalling downside momentum support market indecisiveness below that level. On the upside, a break above 209.65 could see the test of 212.60 level. Conversely, a break below the 200 support line could set the scene for a test of 191.60. We expect prices to soften marginally today and remain on the back foot, testing the support level at 200.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures softened marginally yesterday after testing support at 2010 once again, causing the market to close at 2009. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting more downside impetus. To confirm the double bottom formation, futures need to close back above 2078 and then target 2104. On the downside, a break below 2010 could set the scene for 2000. The narrow candle body points to prices being tested and rejected, which could be indicative of a trend reversal. The indicators, however, highlight further downside momentum, and futures need to break below 2010 to confirm this.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close at 2445. The stochastics are falling, with the %K soon to enter the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. A break of the 2436 level could trigger losses through 2400, with the tertiary level at 2333. On the upside, a break above the last session’s highs at 2485 could set the scene for bullish momentum. After the last session’s market indecisiveness – the spinning top formation – the narrow candle body points to uncertainty for lower prices in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 1758. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming further downside pressures. A break of the robust trend support at 1750 could trigger losses through a 50% fib level at 1730, with the tertiary level at 1700. On the upside, a break back above the DMAs at 1760 levels could set the scene for a test of 1767, pointing to a change of trend for more bullish momentum. Yesterday’s bearish spinning top formation points to market indecisiveness about the outlook for lower prices, and we need the futures to break trend support to confirm the outlook.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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