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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar gained ground on Friday as marginal buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 20.00 at 20.07. The stochastics are rising, diverging on the upside in the overbought, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging, but the upside momentum is seen slowing down, which could be a sign of trend reversal in the near term. Futures have struggled between 20-20.50 in recent months, suggesting we could see prices weaken in the near term towards 19.50, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance at 19.75 beforehand. On the upside, resistance at 20.38 has been robust in recent months, and a break above it could signal strong upside momentum to 20.94 before 21.00. The futures, however, struggled above the near term resistance in recent days and the indicators point to an end of upside momentum in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures opened higher day on day on Friday, closing at 541.60. The stochastics are rising, but %K/%D is now overbought, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, but the upside momentum is deteriorating. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust resistance level at 547.90 to trigger the momentum to recent highs of 558 and 560. Conversely, an appetite for prices below 540 completely could trigger a test of support of 40 DMA at 529.61. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of higher prices and could point to an end of bullish sentiment. The indicators point to a change of outlook, and subdued volumes point to market uncertainty about higher prices.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee weakened on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 216. The stochastics have converged on the downside and now falling, and the RSI has also edged lower, sending a sell signal. The MACD diff is positive and converging. A full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 10 DMA support level at 216.34. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 212.60. On the upside, trend resistance at 221 has proven to be strong, and appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 23.6% fib level at 227.95. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures softened on Friday after closing below 10 DMA at 2056. The stochastics are about to converge on the downside, and the MACD is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 2010. A break below this level would bring into play 2000. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 40 DMA at 2093 in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the 2104 level; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside but prices need to breach and hold above 2100 in order to confirm the rejection of the descending triangle. The longer upper wick points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we expect to see prices edge lower in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY coca weakened significantly on Friday, closing below the support level of 10 DMA at 2453. The stochastics have converged on the downside and now falling, with %K/%D edging down back to the oversold territory, and the MACD lacks to point out an outlook as it fluctuates marginally between positive and negative territory. A break below 2436 would bring into play the 2400 level, which could set the scene for a bearish trend in the long term. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 10 DMA at 2477 in order to confirm upside momentum back to 2500. Appetite above these levels could trigger gains towards 40 DMA at 2568. Longer lower wick, where most of the trading took place in the upper ranges, points to a lack of appetite for lower prices. But the indicators suggest growing downside pressures in the near term. To confirm this, support at 2436 needs to be broken first.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures failed into trend support on Friday as prices closed at 1743. The stochastics are converging and could give a sell signal, edging close to the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards the 50% fib level at 1730; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 1700. On the upside, a break of trend resistance and all moving averages may prompt futures to retest 1800. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum. Three black crows pattern formation alongside a break below robust support levels at moving averages confirms indicators’ outlook for lower prices in the near term.

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Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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