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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures opened lower but managed to close higher day-on-day at 19.70. The stochastics are converging in the overbought, with %K%D now falling, a strong sell signal. The MACD diff is positive and converging. On the upside, futures need to break above the resistance levels of 10 DMA at 19.84 and 20.38 to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 20.50 level to confirm the longer-term outlook. Conversely, an appetite for prices below 40 DMA at 19.47 could trigger a test of support of 19.00. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of higher prices and confirms the indicators that point to an end of the bullish sentiment we have seen in the last couple of days.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures edged higher yesterday, but prices struggled above 550 once again as they closed at 548. The indicators continue to favour the upside, with %K/%D diverging in the overbought and MACD diff just is positive but flat, suggesting a change of trend on the downside in the near term. A break below the 10 DMA level at 538.98 would bring into play the recent support level at 530.20. In order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 550 and then target the recent highs of 558 in the near term. The hanging man candle formation suggests waning buying pressure, and we saw futures struggle above 550 in the last couple of sessions. The fall today would confirm the change of trend in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures rallied yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 226.80. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D has converged on the upside and now rising towards the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming growing buying pressures. On the upside, appetite above the 23.6% fib level at 227.93 could trigger gains through 100 DMA at 229.35 towards 237.70 – the April high. On the downside, a break below the support level of 10 DMA at 219.33 completely could trigger losses back towards the support at 212.60. The futures’ losses have been capped at 212.60, and a break below that level could set the scene for lower prices in the near term. A strong bullish candle, however, highlights a strong appetite on the upside, but prices need to break above the 100 DMA level to confirm continued bullish sentiment.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged higher yesterday and managed to close above the previous resistance of 2104. The futures closed at 2109. The indicators suggest we could see higher prices in the near term. The stochastics are rising, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging on the upside. The RSI is rising, and we expect futures to edge higher in the near term towards 100 DMA 2150 and 2200. Before that, the futures have to completely break above 2104, the resistance they struggled to break in recent weeks. On the downside, if futures fail into 2104, then we could see futures break back below the 10 DMA at 2071 before the long term support of 2010. We expect futures to firm in the near term; however, the near term resistance needs to be broken above first.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday as protracted buying pressure prompted a test of the 10 DMA level to close on the front foot at 2482. The stochastics are rising, and the %K/%D have converged on the upside, while MACD diff crossed into positive territory, which could indicate a strong buy signal. To confirm another bullish candle, futures need to close above 10 DMA at 2480 and then target the 50% fib level at 2553. On the downside, the break below 2400 could set the scene for lower prices towards the support of 2333. However, the market struggled below the near term support level in recent sessions, and the bullish engulfing pattern suggests a strong buy signal. We believe that prices will strengthen in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures opened lower but managed to close higher day-on-day at 1742. The stochastics are falling, but %K is seen tailing off on the upside in the oversold, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming the outlook. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust resistance levels of 1750 and trend level at 1760 to trigger the momentum to all the DMAs. Conversely, appetite for prices below 1730 could trigger a test of support of 1700. Candles have been trading range bound in the last couple of sessions, so to confirm the indicators’ outlook on the upside, the futures have to break above the DMA levels first.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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