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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures sold off yesterday as lack of appetite for prices above 10 DMA. The close was at 19.21. A further break below 19.00 could trigger losses back to 100 DMA support at 18.90 in the near term. The stochastics are falling, with %K now in the oversold, and this could improve downside momentum before a trend reversal; the MACD diff is continuing to weaken. On the upside, if prices can take out the 19.63 level and then 19.45, this would confirm the change of trend on the upside, with the psychological level at 20.00. A break below the robust support 10 and 40 DMAs points strong downside appetite. We believe that there is an appetite for lower prices in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar plummeted sharply yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 10 DMA level support and a close on the back foot at 545.50. The stochastics are falling, and the %K/%D is falling out of the oversold soon to send a sell signal. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting increasing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 540 support level. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 40 DMA level at 533.25. On the upside, resistance at 564.50 has proven to be strong, and an appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 570.10 level, the previous day’s highs. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impending market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures edged lower yesterday as prices closed at 232.35. The indicators begin to favour the downside, with %K/%D converging on the downside out of the overbought area, suggesting growing selling pressures. The MACD, however, is positive and converging. A break below the 100 DMA at 229.30 would bring into play the recent sessions’ support level at 40 DMA at 222.43. Prices have been relatively well supported above 100 DMA, and with 10 DMA crossing above it, a golden cross, this could create strong support in the near term. Alternatively, in order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 240 and then target the 244.75 level in the near term. If the 100 and 10 DMAs do not hold, we could see prices edge below.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices weakened yesterday as trend resistance held strong, causing prices to close marginally lower at 2121. The MACD diff is positive and converging. The stochastics are showing signs of converging on the downside, and now the %K is falling to leave the overbought territory. The RSI is also falling, but the inside day yesterday suggests a continuation of the recent trend on the upside and an attempt to break above the trend resistance at 2139. If this level is broken, prices could target 2200. On the downside, a fall below the recent support of 2104 could trigger losses to 40 DMA at 2087. The indicators point to growing downside momentum, but candles need to break below the near term support of 2104 to confirm this.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa prices weakened yesterday, but moderate selling pressure triggered a close above the 10 DMA level of 2496; the market closed at 2507. The stochastics are showing signs of upside deceleration, and %K is now falling and could converge on the downside, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD is positive, however, converging, and the spinning top candle formation supports market indecisiveness as it trades between 10 and 40 DMA levels. Prices have been trading in a narrow range, and in order to confirm the change of momentum, prices need to break above the current support at 2496. A break below this level and then 2436 support level could set the scene for a test of 2400. We expect prices to remain on the back foot.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures softened yesterday as traders rejected prices above 50 DMA once again, prompting a close at 1770. The RSI is falling, with %K/%D still rising, but %K is seen tailing off into neutral. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and has not changed in the last couple of sessions, suggesting stalling upside momentum and a possible trend reversal in the near term. The rejection of the 50 DMA at 1779 suggests there is an appetite for lower prices. A break of support at 100 DMA at 1770 could trigger losses to the support level of 1750. However, if the near term support level holds firm, we could see prices trend higher back towards 18.00 in the longer term. However, prices struggled to completely break above the DMA levels and with softening momentum from the indicators' side, we could see price edge lower in the near term.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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