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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures jumped higher yesterday, but moderate bullish appetite trading saw prices close below 10 DMA at 19.51. The stochastics are seen converging on the upside, with the %K/%D still in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting waning selling pressures. A break of the 10 DMA at 19.53 could trigger gains through 19.75, with the tertiary level at 20.00. On the downside, a break below 19.00 could set the scene for bearish momentum towards the 100 DMA at 18.93. The long candle body with a long, longer wick points to increased appetite on the upside, but resistance at 10 DMA needs to be broken first to confirm the conviction of the momentum.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 134.50. The stochastics are rising with the %K/%D diverging on the upside, whereas the MACD diff is positive and converging on the downside. This suggests we could see lower prices in the near term towards 40 DMA at 533.72, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance of 540. On the upside, the candle found support at 540, and if this level holds firm, we could see prices gain footing back through the 10 DMA at 550.98 before 560. However, the market broke below 10 DMA support in recent sessions and has since struggled to break back above it. The indicators are painting a mixed outlook, and to confirm further upside trend, the 10 DMA needs to be broken above again in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures strengthened yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 234.80. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are diverging on the downside in the oversold. The MACD diff is positive and converging, outlining recent market weakness. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 100 DMA at 229.21 could trigger losses back towards 40 DMA at 222.35, a break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices in the longer term. On the upside, a break above 240 could trigger gains through resistance towards 244.75 – February highs. The market weakness has moderated as the futures struggled to break the 100 DMA support level. We expect prices to continue to attempt to breach this support in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures opened lower day-on-day but gained marginal ground to close at 2108. The %K/%D are oversold but seen converging, which could be a signal for a change of momentum. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting a further appetite for lower prices, but futures need to break below the psychological levels of 2100 to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 40 DMA level at 2086. A break below this level towards 2078 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, an appetite for prices above the 10 DMA at 2113 could trigger a test of resistance of 2136. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of lower prices and could point to an end of the bearish bullish sentiment we have seen in the last couple of weeks. We anticipate a change of momentum in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures weakened yesterday as futures failed above 10 DMA and closed at 2473. The stochastics begin to fall as they converge on the downside. The MACD diff is positive and converging, pointing to a waning buying pressure. A break below 2436 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 2400. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above 2436 would suggest higher prices and a close above 10 DMA at 2503, setting the scene for higher prices towards 2520. Yesterday’s candle body being below Wednesday suggests an appetite for lower prices, and the indicators are pointing to a further fall in prices in the near term. 

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures softened yesterday after testing the support level of 200 DMA. The market closed higher at 1762. The stochastics are about to converge on the downside, with %K seen falling on the downside, and the MACD diff is positive and converging. The appetite back above 100 and 50 DMAs at 1771 and 1778, respectively, could set the scene for higher prices back to test 1800, confirming the hammer formation. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 200 DMA at 1762 in order to confirm the bearish trend. Indeed, the 200 DMA support level has been robust in the last couple of sessions, but a break below this level would suggest strong conviction on the downside in the near term.



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