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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures sold off on Friday, but a lack of appetite for lower prices failed to break the 100 DMA support once again, and the market closed at 19.07. Stochastics begin to fall again, with %K/%D converging in the oversold. MACD diff is negative and diverging, supporting the outlook for deteriorating prices. The last two days formed a bearish engulfing pattern, a sign of an impending market downturn. The sell-off on Friday and close near the lows suggest further selling pressure below the current support level, and the above-mentioned indicators support lower prices. A break below the 100 DMA at 18.94 could set the scene for a test of support at 18.83. On the upside, support around 19.00 would help reaffirm the bullish trend in the near term up to 40 and 10 DMAs at 19.41 and 19.47, respectively. Both these DMAs are providing a robust resistance level for the prices to break above, and we believe futures will stay range bound in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Prices weakened on Friday as selling pressure triggered a close at 542.50. The MACD diff just converged on the downside, a strong sell signal. The stochastics are falling. The RSI is also falling, but the inside day yesterday suggests a continuation of the recent trend on the upside. Dips in the market have not been well bid, and volume in recent sessions diminished, suggesting a lack of lower prices. Recent support at 540 seems robust, and if this level holds, prices could break above 10 DMA at 550.41 and then 560. Conversely, a fall below the recent support could trigger losses to 40 DMA at 533.49. The indicators point to further downside momentum, but candles need to break below the near-term support to confirm this.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures edged lower on Friday, but support at 100 DMA caused the market to close at 228.80. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D edging out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To suggest the outlook of lower prices, futures need to close below 100 DMA at 229.10 and then target 40 DMA at 222.44 before 220. However, a break above resistance at 10 DMA at 233.77 could set the scene for 240. The long candle body with short upper and lower wicks points to a growing appetite for downside momentum, and if the futures break below the near-term support, this would confirm the near-term outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures opened below a key support level of 2104, but support at 40 DMA caused a close at 2095. The RSI is falling, and %K/%D is falling. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting growing selling pressures. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support, prices need to take out 40 DMA at 2089. A break below this level towards 2010 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, an appetite for prices above the 10 DMA level at 2114 could trigger a test of 100 DMA at 2135. A spinning top candle after a dragonfly candle formation signals uncertainty about the outlook for either direction. To confirm the indicators outlook on the downside, a break below the key support in the near term is needed.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa prices declined on Friday after prices rejected resistance at 2485. The market closed at 2432. The stochastics continue to weaken, and MACD diff just converged on the downside, suggesting we could see stronger downside momentum in the near term. A break below 2420 could set the scene for a test of support at 2400. However, the near-term support has been strong in recent months, and if this level hold, it could set the scene for higher prices back to 10 DMA at 2498 before 40 DMA at 2515, confirming the triple bottom formation. Three black crows pattern formation confirms indicators’ outlook for lower prices in the near term, but robust support needs to be broken first to confirm this momentum in the longer term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures weakened marginally on Friday after piercing the support level of 200 DMA. The market closed lower at 1758. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and converging, pointing to a strong sell signal across the indicators. To confirm this, futures need to break below the support of 1750, down to 1730. Indeed, the 200 DMA support level has been robust in the last couple of sessions, a break below this level suggests growing conviction on the downside. On the upside, reaffirmation of support at this level could set the scene for higher prices back to breach the 100 and 50 DMA levels at 1770 and 1779, respectively, confirming an inverse hammer formation. The indicators confirm growing selling pressures, and a break of 200 DMA support suggests growing downside conviction in the near term.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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