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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures opened lower but managed to close higher day-on-day at 18.67. The stochastics are falling, but %K is seen tailing off on the upside in the oversold, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative, and downside sentiment has stalled. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust resistance levels of 100 DMA at 18.94 and 10 DMA at 19.11 to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 19.50 level to confirm the longer-term outlook. Conversely, an appetite for prices below 18.44 could trigger a test of support of 18.17 before 18.00. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of lower prices and could point to an end of the bearish sentiment we have seen in the last couple of days. The indicators highlight a similar trend.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close above the 40 DMA support level; the market closed at 532. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D in the oversold, signalling a potential change in trend in the near term. The MACD is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see further downside momentum before a change of trend. The bearish narrow-bodied candles point to a lack of appetite below 40 DMA at 532.06, however, if prices break below the current support to 521.93 and then 100 DMA at 518.13, this would confirm the downside momentum. Conversely, support at 40 DMA could set the scene for a test of 540. We expect prices to weaken in the near term and remain on the back foot before a change of trend.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures gained ground yesterday as protracted buying pressure prompted a test of the 10 DMA level to close on the front foot at 231.80. The stochastics are about to converge on the upside, and the %K is seen rising, highlighting growing buying pressures. The MACD diff is negative and converging. To confirm another bullish candle, futures need to break above 10 DMA at 230.88 completely and then target the 240, the recent highs. On the downside, the break below 100 DMA at 228.61 could set the scene for lower prices towards the support of the 40 DMA level at 222.99. However, the market struggled below that level in recent sessions, and the three white soldiers pattern suggests a strong buy signal. We believe that prices will strengthen in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures rallied yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2104. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D is about to converge on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming growing buying pressures. On the upside, finding appetite above the 10 DMA at 2098 could trigger gains through 100 DMA at 2129 towards 2150 – the recent highs. On the downside, a break below the support level of 2050 could trigger losses back towards the robust support and 2010. A strong bullish candle highlights a strong appetite on the upside, but prices need to break above the 10 DMA level to confirm continued bullish sentiment.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday to close at 2377. The stochastics are falling, but %K is seen tailing off on the upside in the oversold, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and flat, as downside momentum slowed. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust resistance levels of 2400 and 2420, respectively, to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 10 DMA level at 2443 to confirm the trend reversal. Conversely, an appetite for prices below 233 could trigger a test of support of 2317. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of lower prices and could point to an end of the bearish sentiment we have seen in the last couple of days.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa sold off sharply yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 1730 level support and a close on the back foot at the trend support level at 1708. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging into the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting increasing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 1700 support level. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 1664 level, the lows not seen since February. On the upside, resistance at 1750 has proven to be strong, and an appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 200 DMA level at 1761. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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