NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures failed above 10 DMA on Friday, and moderate downside momentum caused futures to close at 18.73. The stochastics are oversold, but %K/%D are converging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting growing buying pressures. The rejection of prices at 10 DMA at 19.04 has formed a candle with a narrow body but a long wick on the upside, suggesting a lack of appetite for higher prices. If prices were to break above this level, this could trigger a test of 50% fib level at 19.17 and then 19.27 – 40 DMA resistance. To confirm the shooting start formation, futures need to take out 18.50 and then robust support at 18.44. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Lnd sugar futures edged above the previous day closing price on Friday, but the bullish momentum was not strong enough, and futures closed lower on the day at 535.40. The stochastics continue to fall yet seen converging, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. If prices were to break above 10 DMA at 542.74, this could trigger a test of 547.90. To confirm the shooting start formation, futures need to take out 40 DMA at 532.14 and then robust support at 530.20. The stochastics point to the end of the bearish momentum, but a lack of appetite for 10 DMA could drive further declines in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee weakened on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 227.40. The stochastics are falling as they struggle to converge on the upside, signalling a continuation of the bearish trend. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. A full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 100 DMA support level of 228.50 completely. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 40 DMA at 222.98. On the upside, resistance at 240 has proven to be strong, and an appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 244.75. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures softened on Friday after prices failed above 2104 once again, prompting a close on the back foot at 2079. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen diverging on the downside, and the MACD diff is also negative but struggles to point out an outlook. The dips have been poorly bid, and to confirm the full downward candle, the futures need to break below the 2078 level before targeting 2050 at 2010, respectively. Alternatively, if prices can gain a footing back above Friday’s highs at 2118, the bulls could then target 100 DMA at 2127 in order to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to remain on the back foot in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2433. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D has converged on the upside and now rising, a strong buy signal. The MACD diff is negative and converging. On the upside, a break above 10 DMA at 2436 could trigger gains through 40 DMA at 2489 towards 2500. On the downside, a break below the key support level of 2333 could trigger losses back towards 2300. We believe that prices will strengthen today, but to confirm the upside sentiment in the near term, the futures need to break above the 10 DMA level first.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 1745. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are converging on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming waning selling pressures. On the upside, finding support at the trend support level around 1705 could trigger gains towards 1750 before 200 DMA at 1761. On the downside, a break below the key trend support level could trigger losses back towards the 38.2% fib level at 1692. A strong bullish candle after a similar bearish one as well as positive indicators highlight that the selling pressure is subsiding, and the bullish outlook is on the horizon.