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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar weakened marginally yesterday, but support at 18.83 caused the futures to close at 18.89. The stochastics are rising, with %K about to enter the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, although the upside sentiment is stalling. This could suggest waning upside momentum, and if the resistance levels at 100 and 40 DMA at 19.06 and 19.12 hold, respectively, then the prices could edge lower back below 18.83. A break below this level would suggest growing conviction on the downside down to 10 DMA at 18.64. However, if the resistance levels on the upside are broken, this could set the scene to 19.50 in the longer term. A bearish candle body with long upper and lower wicks suggests uncertainty about breaking out of the current support/resistance levels; however, the indicators point to the upside momentum reaching its peak, and we could see a change of momentum in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading saw futures test support at 40 DMA before closing at 542. The stochastics are rising further towards the overbought territory as the MACD diff is continuing to diverge on the upside while positive. However, yesterday’s market activity points to the market finding resistance at 547.90 and testing the near-term support of 40 DMA at 539.09 as it lacks the appetite to break down below these levels. In order to regain downside momentum, after the 40 DMA support level, the futures need to target 10 DMA at 536.29 and then 530.20. Conversely, the rejection of the resistance level at 547.90 could trigger gains towards 560. The moving averages are rising, and this could provide support for prices in the near term. The indicators confirm further upside momentum is on the horizon before a change of momentum.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted a break of support at 209.65 to close on the back foot at 205.35. The stochastics are falling in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The break of the support level at 202.30 would suggest an appetite for lower prices. Secondary and tertiary support stands at 200 and 190, respectively. However, if prices find support at 202.30, this could prompt a recovery back above 212.60 to 218. In the medium term, we could see futures break above 10 DMA at 218.85. This level has provided strong resistance in recent sessions, and a close above this level would prompt prices to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to find support in the near term, and the oversold stochastics could prompt a change of momentum on the upside.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower yesterday, but support at 1952 caused the market to close at 1954. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting higher prices in the near term. To suggest the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 10 DMA at 1975 and then target 2000 before 2010. However, a break below support at 1952 could set the scene for 1914 and then 1900. The bullish candle body with a longer lower wick points to a lack of appetite on the downside. However, at the same time, futures are capped by the resistance of 10 DMA, and to confirm the change in momentum, prices have to break above this level.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa opened higher day-on-day yesterday, breaking back above the 10 DMA level; however, resistance at 2375 caused the futures to close at 2354. The RSI is falling marginally, while the %K/%D is diverging on the upside out of the oversold area. The MACD diff just converged on the upside, confirming the continuation of buying momentum. To maintain that trend, prices need to close above 2400 and the target 2420. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 2375 could trigger losses back below 10 DMA at 2349 before targeting 2333 and 2317. Buying pressure in the last couple of days struggled above the 10 DMA resistance, and yesterday’s inside candle pointed to a lack of appetite above the near-term resistance. If momentum could hold above this level, we could see prices edge higher in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa struggled to break above the firm DMA resistance levels yesterday as marginal selling pressure triggered a close at 1754. The stochastics continue to edge higher, about to enter the overbought area, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting further upside impetus in the near term. To confirm this, the futures need to break above the 100 and 50 DMAs at 1758 and 1759, respectively, before targeting 1767. On the downside, a break below 1750 could push prices back down to 1730 before 1710. Yesterday’s spinning top formation confirms market indecisiveness about the momentum as it struggles to break above the DMAs while also lacking appetite below 1750. The indicators point to further upside momentum, but unless the near-term resistance levels are broken, we expect the futures to trade range-bound.

Contents

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

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