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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures sold off yesterday after investors rejected prices above 19.50, prompting a close below all of the DMA support levels at 19.03. The stochastics are falling, after having converged on the downside in the overbought, with RSIs now in neutral territory, suggesting a strong short-term negative trend. The MACD diff is positive and converging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 10 DMA of 19.03 completely before 18.83. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 19.50 and then 19.75 in the near term. Near-term momentum is on the downside, the cross of 40 DMA below 100 DMA, a death cross, confirms this trend.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar sold off sharply yesterday after gapping strongly lower on Monday, opening below 530.20, breaking the recent upside momentum, and a close much lower at 519.70. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D converging on the downside, and the RSI has also edged lower, sending a sell signal. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting waning buying pressures; this could set the scene for even lower prices towards the 520 support level. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 512.90. On the upside, resistance at 100 DMA 529.43 formed yesterday, and appetite back above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the trend resistance at 540 and then 547.90. Long-term momentum is on the downside, and the reaffirmation of resistance suggests this trend will remain intact.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures edged higher yesterday as prices closed at 216.50. The indicators continue to favour the upside, with %K/%D diverging out of the oversold and MACD diff is negative and converging on the upside, suggesting growing buying pressures. In order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 220 and then target the 40 and 100 DMA at 223 in the near term. On the downside, a break back below the 10 DMA at 221.13 would bring into play the recent support level at 202.30. The hanging man candle formation suggests waning buying pressure, and we saw futures struggle above 218 in the last couple of sessions. The fall today would confirm the change of trend in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged higher yesterday, testing resistance at 2000 and closing at 1998. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D just diverging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming further upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support at 10 DMA at 1962 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 2000 and 2010 levels. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 10 DMA in order to end the recent sessions’ bull trend. Indeed, the 10, 40 and 100 DMAs are providing robust support/resistance levels. A break above 2000 would highlight the appetite for higher prices. The market needs to gain a footing above this level in the immediate term to improve the outlook.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2382. The stochastics are rising with the %K/%D diverging on the upside, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging on the upside. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 40 DMA at 2414, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance of 2400. On the downside, the candle found support at 10 DMA at 2341, and if the prices break through this level, we could see prices retreat back through 2317 before 2300. However, the market was well supported above that level in recent weeks, and the bullish engulfing pattern suggests a strong buy signal. Firm support at that level suggests a lack of appetite below, and we expect prices to firm in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa strengthened yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 1767 at 1778. The stochastics are growing, with %K edging towards the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging. A bullish candle with a longer lower wick suggests growing buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the resistance at 1767 completely. This would confirm the trend of rising prices, up to 1800. On the downside, a breach of support at 1750 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the DMA support levels at 1750. Indicators are pointing to higher prices, and if the futures break above the near-term resistance, we would expect to gain positive momentum in the near term.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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