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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar sold off on Friday after investors rejected prices above 18.50, prompting a close below 18.17 at 18.06. The stochastics continue to fall, with %K edging lower into the oversold. The MACD is negative and diverging, suggesting further downside momentum in the near term. To confirm another bearish candle and the three black crows formation, prices need to break below the robust support level at 18.00 before 17.48. On the upside, to gain the upside conviction, futures need to confirm the support at 18.00 before edging back up to 18.44 and 18.83, respectively. With the 40 and 10 DMA levels crossing below the 100 DMA one, the death cross formation, the appetite for lower prices has been strong, and if the near term support level does not hold, we could see further declines in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures weakened on Friday, as they tested support level at around 500 to close at 502.20. The stochastics continue to fall, with both %K and %D now oversold. The MACD diff is negative and declining rapidly on the downside, highlighting the recent bear trend. A break below the 500 support level would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 491, with tertiary levels at 480. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support at current levels would suggest that the futures have found a bottom and may come back to 512.90 and 520 levels in the near term. Yesterday’s candle opening below Thursday’s close points to a strong downside conviction, but to confirm the continuation of this trend, the prices need to break the support level of 500 in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 202.65. The stochastics are about to converge on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming further selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices below 202.30. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices down to 200 before 194.95, the recent support level. On the upside, a break back above the 10 DMA level at 208.11 would support the momentum on the upside up to 220 before 40 and 100 DMAs at 223. The indicators and the long candle body on Friday with a break below 10 DMA highlight the conviction for further downside momentum in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Friday after prices failed to break above the 10 DMA at 1967, prompting a close at 1962. The stochastics are converging on the downside, with %K/%D edging lower, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting an outlook for lower prices. To confirm the bearish indicators and rejection of prices above 10 DMA, futures need to take out support at 1950 and then target 1914. On the upside, futures need to close above 10 DMA and then test the 2010 level in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 2040. We expect futures to weaken in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures softened on Friday as moderate selling pressure saw prices test support at 2333 and close above at 2336. The RSI is falling marginally, and the %K/%D is converging on the downside, near the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting growing selling pressures. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the near-term support, prices need to take out 2333. A break below this level towards 2317 would confirm the growing bearish momentum. Conversely, the appetite for prices back above 10 DMA at 2346 could trigger a test of resistance at 2400 before 40 DMA at 2406. A small candle body with long upper and lower wicks points to uncertainty about the price moves in the near term, so, to confirm the indicators, futures need to break below the 2333 level in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa slumped on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot above the DMA support levels at 1749. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence on the downside in the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting waning upside pressures. This could set the scene for lower prices below 1750, but the futures need to take out robust support levels, with 100 DMA at 1760 and 200 DMA at 1752. A break below these levels could confirm that the momentum on the downside is growing. Alternatively, a break back above Friday’s highs at 1794 could test the resistance at 1800. The two-line strike formation points to a continuation of an uptrend, but the indicators suggest another decline today. We expect the DMA support levels to hold firm today.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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