Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

11 Nov 2015 09:00
Market participants will be keeping an eye on the crucial political conditions in Portugal following the collapse of the government in the country. Portugal’s 10-yr bond yield hit a 5-month high as it widened to 2.85% yesterday. It seems Portugal’s uncertainty is likely to dominate the markets during the following weeks for the rest of 2015, until the political situation stabilises.
10 Nov 2015 08:46
Further signs of weakness in China prompted investors to selloff. The Hang Seng index plunged over 300 points (-1.43%) towards 22,400 while the Shanghai Composite Index slid lower by 0.20% towards 3,640. China’s CPI rose 1.3% y/y in October compared to 1.6% in September, missing analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% rise, showing the lowest level since May 2015.
09 Nov 2015 08:42
Chinese exports declined by 6.9% y/y in October, versus analysts’ expectations of a 3.2% drop. Imports dropped sharply by 18.8% y/y in October (vs exp. of -15.2%) compared to a 20.4% strong decline in September. The fairly disappointing Chinese economic data weighed to some extent on market sentiment, while Asian equity markets were mixed overnight. The Hang Seng index retreated by 0.6% towards 22,700.
22 Oct 2015 09:15
The main focus will turn to the ECB meeting as investors remain cautious awaiting the speech of ECB’s President Mario Draghi regarding market expectations. We do not expect any big surprises coming out of the meeting as it seems unlikely the ECB to introduce further QE into the European economies, partially due to inflation concerns and increasing worries regarding the Eurozone’s economic growth.
23 Sep 2015 08:59
Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI declined to 47.0 in September from 47.3 in August, missing analysts’ expectations of 47.5 and hitting a 6 ½ year low. The disappointing manufacturing data verified the recent slowdown of the Chinese economy and weighed on market sentiment. The Hang Seng index plunged over 550 points (-2.50%) towards 21,200, while the Shanghai Composite index declined over 2% to retest 3,100.
14 Sep 2015 09:02
This week, the main focus will turn to the FOMC meeting on Thursday. The USD index has lost its upside momentum against the G10 currencies, retreating towards 95.0, as investors remain cautious about the timing of a US interest rate rise this year. We do not expect any big surprises from the Fed this week, as it is likely that the US Federal Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged this time, possibly signalling that the beginning of a tightening policy is approaching.
10 Sep 2015 08:52
The Bank of England announces its latest decision on interest rates, which have been unchanged at 0.5% since March 2009. The Halifax survey showed that house prices increased by 2.7% m/m in August, beating expectations of a more modest increase of 0.5% and showing the biggest monthly increase since May 2014. Sterling slid lower towards 1.5350 against the USD, while the London equity benchmark index retreated nearly 1.0% in early trade this morning, towards 6,170.
09 Sep 2015 08:55
Asian equity markets posted strong gains overnight, as risk appetite increased and market sentiment generally improved. The Nikkei index rebounded from recent losses and spiked over 7.7% (1340 points) towards 18,800, showing its biggest one-day gain since 2008. The Shanghai Composite index gained over 2.2% towards 3243, while the Hang Seng index rallied strongly over 900 points (+4.25%) towards 22,150.
08 Sep 2015 09:12
The USD index initially slid lower towards 95.50 this morning but recovered part of earlier losses and hovered around 96.0 against a basket of currencies. The softer USD provided strong support to most commodity prices. Germany’s exports remain solid following an increase of 2.4% m/m in July, beating expectations of a 1.0% rise. However, Chinese data remained fairly disappointing as exports declined 5.5% y/y in August.
07 Sep 2015 09:08
US markets are closed today for Labor Day, so we expect thin trading volumes across the global equity and commodity markets. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight. The People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told G20 central bankers and finance ministers over the weekend that the turmoil in China's stock market is approaching an end.
04 Sep 2015 08:55
ECB’s Press conference yesterday proved to be very dovish as President Mario Draghi signalled to market participants that the ECB could expand its current stimulus if the slowdown across financial market continues to weigh heavily on economic growth. The euro retreated sharply to hit a 2-week low at 1.1087, while European equity markets declined sharply in early trade this morning.
01 Sep 2015 08:53
Asian equity markets remain under pressure as the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite index retreated 1.7% and 1.25%, respectively, overnight. Chinese economic data was fairly mixed as Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 y/y in August from 50.0 in July, in line with expectations. However, the non-Manufacturing PMI figure was reported at 53.4 y/y in August.
26 Aug 2015 08:58
Asian equity markets extended declines overnight, remaining under heavy pressure. WTI front month futures have been hovering around $39 per barrel ahead of the release of the weekly EIA oil inventories data. The softer USD has failed to provide any support to base metal prices which have been under serious pressure amid concerns over Chinese slowdown.
24 Aug 2015 09:08
China’s financial crisis has rattled global equity and commodity markets this morning. There is a strong sell-off dominating global markets with Chinese stocks tumbling the most since 2007 as recent government support measures failed. The Hang Seng index plunged over 1150 points (-5.2%) towards 21,200, heading for its biggest drop since 2011.
21 Aug 2015 08:43
Greek uncertainty continues to dominate the European equity markets, raising renewed concerns regarding the country’s economic stability. Last night, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced his resignation, showing the way for possible early elections on 20th September 2015.
20 Aug 2015 08:54
Asian equity markets remained under pressure and extended sharp losses overnight as the Hang Seng index plunged over 450 points (-2.05%) towards 22,650. The gloomy macroeconomic picture for Chinese economy has spread concerns across the other global equity markets. European equities opened lower this morning.
10 Aug 2015 08:26
Asian equity markets started the week on a strong footing despite data released over the weekend continuing to pile on the pressure, presenting policymakers with significant headwinds. Athens is nearing the conclusion to its €86bn third bailout package with creditors with the hopes of a deal being reached this week ahead of an August 20th deadline when Greece must make a $3.2bn loan repayment to the ECB. Spot gold prices have started this week on a firm footing as weaker than expected Chinese inflation and trade data prompted some haven demand.
03 Aug 2015 08:21
A weaker than expected July manufacturing PMI reading over in China prompted a retreat from Asian equities during overnight trading as investors expressed fresh concerns for policymakers who have in recent months used a variety of tools at their disposal to try and reverse China’s economic fortunes. Both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 spent the majority of the session under pressure with wider equity indices across the region following mainland Chinese stocks lower. Greek financial markets have reopened today after remaining closed for five weeks as creditors concluded the process of negotiating a third bailout for the indebted nation.
31 Jul 2015 08:12
Chinese equity markets have had their worst month since 2013 as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 showed no signs of stemming the outflows. The dollar managed to hold onto its gains yesterday despite slightly weaker than expected Q2 GDP data. Investors will be paying particular attention to today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index which will offer further insight into how much compensation employers pay out for the same position over time.
28 Jul 2015 08:48
Asian equities traded mixed overnight with Chinese mainland stock indices struggling to stem the recent outflows as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 shed 5% early on before recovering the majority of these losses towards the end of the session. The rouble posted losses against the dollar for the sixth straight session yesterday and was on track to post further declines against the greenback today. Investor attention today will remain focused on UK Q2 GDP data which will give market participants further insight into the state of the UK economy.
22 Jul 2015 09:01
European equity markets retreated sharply in early trade as investors remain cautious ahead of the Greek parliamentary vote this evening. There is increasing worries regarding Greece’s political uncertainty as a possible further conflict within Syriza could force the government into a minority position if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras fails to gain sufficient support.
17 Jul 2015 08:35
ECB President Mario Draghi reassured markets as he announced an increase of emergency liquidity assistance limit by €900m. The euro traded back towards a six week low on Mr Draghi’s comments as contagion fears subsided and investor attention switched back towards the ongoing QE programme. Asian equity markets ended the week on a positive note as major indices across the region posted gains overnight with Chinese mainland stock indices leading the charge higher.
15 Jul 2015 15:14
The release of Chinese Q2 GDP data, which saw growth hold firm at 7.0% y/y for a second straight quarter, failed to provide mainland equity markets with adequate support. Instead both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 extended declines for a second day, losing 3% and 3.5% respectively. Investors were right to approach equity markets with renewed caution as recent efforts to stimulate the Chinese economy and reverse mounting deflationary pressures saw a significant spike in volatility.
15 Jul 2015 08:28
There were increasing doubts surrounding the approval of Greece’s latest bailout after the IMF argued that substantial debt relief needed to be offered by creditors. China’s second quarter GDP grew by more than expected, providing further proof that stimulus measures instigated by policymakers in Beijing were starting to have a positive impact. Bank of England governor Mark Carney provided further hints of a rates rise in the near future as concerns of persistently low inflation were brushed aside.
08 Jul 2015 09:11
The Hang Seng index plunged over 2000 points overnight (-8.2%) towards 22,900 as concerns regarding Chinese’s economic stability weighed on market sentiment, prompting investors to sell-off. China’s Shanghai Composite Index also declined sharply, showing its biggest drop since 2007.
07 Jul 2015 08:56
All eyes are on the Eurogroup’s meeting this evening, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the new Finance Minister Tsakalotos are meeting European creditors to discuss a fresh bailout proposal and possibly secure an agreement. In the meantime, the ECB added further pressure to the Greek banking sector as it kept the ELA funding limit unchanged.
01 Jul 2015 08:48
Greece’s last minute appeal to international creditors for financial aid yesterday got rejected. Thus, the country became the first developed economy to default on IMF payment as the deadline expired yesterday. The IMF confirmed yesterday that the country has not made its scheduled 1.6 billion euro loan repayment to the fund, so economic conditions deteriorated.
11 Jun 2015 08:57
There is increasing optimism across the European equity markets this morning following small improvements regarding the Greek debt issues and the looming deadlines. However, the euro came under renewed pressure and fell towards 1.1250 in early trade.
08 Jun 2015 08:46
Turkish Lira declined sharply over the weekend and extended losses over 5% this morning to reach a record low against the USD after Turkey’s Islamist-rooted AKP party lost its Parliamentary majority after 13 years in power.
11 May 2015 08:58
China’s central bank cut interest rates for the third time in six months in order to provide strong support for the country’s economy. The People’s Bank of China reduced the one-year lending rate by 0.25% points to 5.1% and cut the one-year deposit rate to 2.25%, effective today.