Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

22 Feb 2016 08:07

The pound sterling traded back towards a three week low against the dollar as Brexit fears saw investors pull out of the currency. Japanese PMI data released in the early hours of the morning saw manufacturing activity slow sharply in February. Despite the less than impressive Japanese PMI data, Asian equity market started the week on the front foot.

10 Feb 2016 08:36
LME three month copper prices had near term support kicked from underneath them yesterday as prices closed over 2% lower on the day, breaching near term support at the 50 day MA which we had anticipated to hold up well given Monday’s cautious session. The dollar index extended declines yesterday after some brief consolidation around the 200 day MA over the past few sessions, targeting a close just above 96.000. Gold prices look to have hit a ceiling with prices struggling to lift much higher yesterday, end the session around $1,190/oz with activity early this morning stabilising around these levels.
27 Jan 2016 08:31
Front month crude prices managed to recover the majority of Monday’s losses during yesterday’s trading session as investors viewed the sharp sell-off at the start of the week as overdone. Gold prices managed to hold onto yesterday’s gains as global growth concerns saw investors continue to pile into the safe haven asset. Chinese imports of copper rose to their highest level since December 2011 as customs data released yesterday saw the world’s second largest economy import just over 423K tonnes of the red metal.
01 Dec 2015 08:02
Chinese equity markets pushed tentatively higher overnight as encouraging economic news and data supported risk appetite across the region. The inclusion indicates just how extensive the reforms have been in China with offshore spot yuan trading 0.3% weaker against the USD as market participants anticipated that the PBOC would hold off from further stimulus, allowing a freer movement of the currency. After finally managing to close above 100.00 on Friday, the dollar index held firmly onto recent gains on Monday, trading tentatively higher towards 100.310 as investors geared up for this week’s economic data releases ahead of the FOMC meeting later this month.
30 Nov 2015 08:32
Iron ore prices slipped below $40/tonne on Monday after facing considerable headwinds last week. Three month LME copper prices look to be heading lower today as the red metal trades under pressure early on, failing to capitalise on last week’s late gains. The euro is set for its worst monthly performance since March as a growing number of economists expect the ECB to announce additional stimulus efforts at this week’s meeting.
27 Nov 2015 08:39
Gold prices are on track to close lower for the sixth straight week as an increasing number of investors expects the Fed to increase interest rates at next month’s FOMC meeting. Japanese economic data released late last night was less than impressive to say the least, prompting some modest weakness across Asian equity indices as the quiet optimism seen in Europe failed to spill over to the overnight session. Three month copper prices are finding it tough to hold onto yesterday’s gains early on this morning, with prices traded on the LME hovering around yesterday’s close, towards $4,620/tonne.
26 Nov 2015 08:20
Base metals prices rebounded firmly overnight as investors reacted warmly to the news that Chinese regulators were considering launching a probe into short selling on local exchanges. Yesterday’s Autumn Statement saw Chancellor George Osborne tackle the deficit from another angle after failing to curb welfare spending, instead introducing a 2% increase to council tax to help pay for social care while wielding the axe on departmental budgets. Front month Brent futures managed to post gains for a fourth successive session yesterday as intraday dips towards $45/bbl were firmly bought into and futures ended the session at $46.17/bbl after attempting to gain a foothold at $46.50/bbl.
23 Nov 2015 08:06
Gold investors were hopeful that last week’s choppy trading potentially signalled that a floor was developing. San Francisco Fed President John Williams proffered strong hints on Friday, stating that there was a “strong case” for the Fed to increase rates in December. The commodity rout continues with industrial metals, oil and gas leading the way lower, largely driven by a stronger dollar and a growing fundamental imbalance. The stronger dollar, which has gained over 3.5% so far this month, and weaker demand outlook has seen the base metals complex take a battering as investors look to limit risk taking.
17 Nov 2015 09:01
The strong USD rally continues to dominate the global equity and commodity markets, as the USD index rallied for third consecutive session and extended gains above 99.50 against a basket of currencies. Gold has been hovering around $1,080/ounce. Copper extended declines towards $4,600 this morning, as the strong USD and bearish copper fundamentals weigh on market sentiment.
16 Nov 2015 08:59
Asian and European equity markets remained under pressure and posted renewed losses today as the attacks in Paris, France, on Friday caused high uncertainty across global markets. The tragic events limited any risk appetite and caused nervous trading conditions. Japan’s economy contracted by 0.8% y/y in Q3 2015, following a revised 0.7% drop in Q2 2015, missing analysts’ expectations of a -0.2% decline.
04 Nov 2015 08:45
Spot gold prices fell for fifth straight session yesterday, registering their biggest one day drop in almost two months as investors positioned themselves ahead of today’s ADP employment change and trade balance data. Chinese mainland stock indices rallied strongly overnight with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 both registering gains in excess of four percent as the government unveiled the details of its latest five year plan. ICE raw sugar futures extended gains towards 15.5 cents per pound yesterday as a combination of persistent rain in Brazil and increasing fuel costs in the world’s second largest producer increased the prospects of more cane crop being directed towards ethanol production.
30 Oct 2015 08:46
Treasury yields climbed higher on the US Fed’s hawkish outlook as increasing speculation of a December rates rise saw risk appetite for equities improve. While monetary policy in the US and the UK gears up for an eventual tightening, as expected the Bank of Japan held the annual rise in the monetary base at 80tn yen. The yen traded within a wide range against the dollar overnight, weakening towards 121.50 before swinging towards 120.30 towards the European open. Base metals prices as well as mining stocks came under renewed pressure yesterday as the Fed’s outlook for a potential December interest rate rise prompted a sell-off across a sector already beset by oversupply and lacklustre demand concerns.
12 Oct 2015 08:21
Copper, aluminium and zinc managed to hold onto Friday’s gains during early morning trading on Monday, finding firm support around the previous session’s close as upbeat investors reacted positively to the expectation of further output cuts. Further details regarding the Fed’s interest rate outlook were provided over the weekend as Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer signalled that there may be sufficient strength in the US economy to support an interest rates rise this year. Recent volatility reminds us of June 2013 where global asset prices exhibited significant “taper tantrum” as the Fed reined in its asset purchase programme
01 Oct 2015 08:34
Asian equity markets managed to extend upward momentum during overnight trading, following Wall Street higher as investors seemed unfazed by pessimistic data. Compounding worries for the region China’s manufacturing activity shrunk for a second straight month as the index compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing held below the 50.0 point mark despite a marginal improvement month-on-month to 49.8 from 49.7. Three month LME copper prices were encouraged higher by the stabilising Chinese PMI data and while it was far from bullish, early signs of the recent PBOC intervention having the desired effects saw the red metal rally above the 50 day MA during the early hours of the morning
29 Sep 2015 08:23
After a relatively stable September the rouble seems poised for a breakout as indicated by the technicals. Embattled commodities trader Glencore saw its shares hit a fresh record low yesterday, closing over 30% lower on the day as concerns regarding its burgeoning debt pile prompted investors to sell-off en masse. The Bank of England is expected to hold off from an interest rate increase at least until the mid-2016 according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
17 Sep 2015 09:09
It is decision time for the US Federal Reserve. It seems that global markets are going into today’s FOMC’s meeting with a “dovish” mentality. We may be surprised with an interest rate hike despite the recent tepid US economic data. The USD index has been under some pressure ahead of the announcement, retreating towards 95.0 against a basket of currencies in early trade.
07 Sep 2015 09:08
US markets are closed today for Labor Day, so we expect thin trading volumes across the global equity and commodity markets. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight. The People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told G20 central bankers and finance ministers over the weekend that the turmoil in China's stock market is approaching an end.
24 Aug 2015 09:08
China’s financial crisis has rattled global equity and commodity markets this morning. There is a strong sell-off dominating global markets with Chinese stocks tumbling the most since 2007 as recent government support measures failed. The Hang Seng index plunged over 1150 points (-5.2%) towards 21,200, heading for its biggest drop since 2011.
19 Aug 2015 08:09
Copper prices extended losses to fresh lows yesterday as the wider rout in commodities markets continued. UK inflation posted a surprise rise in July as headline CPI rose 0.1% y/y from zero the previous month. Gold prices built on support around yesterday close as activity overnight put the yellow metal on track to extend gains for a third straight session.
29 Jul 2015 08:46
Base metals indicated encouraging signs early on this morning after steady gains posted yesterday stemmed the recent rout in the metals market. It seems as if intervention from policymakers in China to utilise state funds in an effort to prop up the equity market is having the desired effect with mainland Chinese stock indices gaining just over one percent overnight. The ECB approved the reopening of the Athens Stock Exchange yesterday with further details on the exact timing and proposed trading restrictions still to be decided.
22 Jun 2015 08:45
Investors remain cautious ahead of the crucial Emergency Summit in Brussels today regarding Greece’s debt issues. Asian equity markets rebounded strongly overnight and posted strong gains. The upside momentum continued in European equities this morning which opened higher and recovered from sharp losses last week.
01 Jun 2015 08:04
China’s manufacturing PMI reading for May rose to 50.2, sending risk assets higher as investor confidence steadily improved. Three month LME copper, aluminium and nickel prices were supported higher early on this morning on the stable Chinese PMI data, as the industrial metals attempted to recover some of Friday’s steep losses. The deadline for a Greek deal is fast approaching and it seems hope is quickly fading as talks over the weekend failed to garner any significant traction.
01 May 2015 16:05
Copper continued its strong rally towards $6450, verifying the recent uptrend in the market. However, precious metal prices remained under pressure for second consecutive session, with gold trading back towards $1170/ounce.
30 Apr 2015 15:59
European equity markets came under renewed pressure for third consecutive session today, heading for their first monthly decline of 2015 following the recent disappointing economic data.
22 Apr 2015 15:29
A softer session for European equities as improved appetite for risk assets during Asian trading failed to carry over. Investor sentiment was dampened by the overhanging concerns regarding Greece’s debt crisis as officials on both sides struggle to make meaningful progress. Three month LME copper prices extended declines for a fourth straight session today as resistance at the 100 day MA continues to limit any significant upside potential.
21 Apr 2015 08:05
Three month LME copper prices shed almost 3% yesterday after a positive start to the week saw the red metal open at a four week high at $6,173/tonne. Asian indices headed higher overnight as they tracked a stronger session on Wall Street and continued to mull over the impact of further stimulus measures by the PBOC. The dollar index headed higher early this morning as the greenback built on support offered at yesterday’s close.
16 Apr 2015 07:49
Tensions between Germany and Greece showed no signs of curtailing after recent comments from Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, all but ruled out any deal in the coming week. Asian equity indices rallied higher overnight as the bullish sentiment from both the European and US session’s spilled over to Asian trading. Comments from Premier Li Keqiang offered markets further insight into the tools at policymaker’s disposal as they battle to support growth.
15 Apr 2015 13:13
After yesterday’s shaky session for European equity markets today’s session saw stocks push to a fresh fourteen year high with the majority of the gains added in the morning, ahead of the ECB’s rate decision. Equity markets started the week on a positive footing after unimpressive Chinese trade data released on Monday and softer than expected industrial production data released overnight increased the prospects that Beijing would also soon step up its monetary easing efforts in a bid to support a faltering economy.
20 Mar 2015 16:04
The London equity benchmark index climbed higher during the last trading session of the week and surged above 7,000 for the first time as risk appetite increased after a fairly volatile week in the markets. The softer US dollar supported the uptrend across global equity and commodity markets as the USD index slid lower towards 98.0 against a basket of currencies.
10 Feb 2015 16:22
Crude oil prices gave back part of recent gains and reversed in today’s session with WTI front month futures plunging over 3% to retest $51/barrel. Copper extended declines towards $5,580 (-1.5%)