Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

22 Feb 2016 08:07

The pound sterling traded back towards a three week low against the dollar as Brexit fears saw investors pull out of the currency. Japanese PMI data released in the early hours of the morning saw manufacturing activity slow sharply in February. Despite the less than impressive Japanese PMI data, Asian equity market started the week on the front foot.

04 Feb 2016 08:27
Three month LME zinc prices rallied for the fifth straight session as a sharp sell-off in the dollar against a basket of major currencies as well as improving fundamentals in China buoyed demand for the metal. The Bank of England’s MPC are due to release their base rate decision later today which the majority of market participants expect to remain unchanged at 0.5%.
21 Jan 2016 08:29
The PBOC once again stepped up efforts to shore up capital markets as it injected 400bn yuan (roughly $60bn) into financial markets using reverse repo agreements. Risk aversion prompted continued buying of gold as jittery investors piled into the safe haven asset. The dollar remains very much in vogue despite struggling with direction in recent sessions as it remains well supported towards the 50 day moving average.
20 Jan 2016 08:51
The pound sterling dropped to its lowest level against the USD since 2009 yesterday as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signalled that it was too soon to consider a rates rise, pushing back the expectation further. Crude oil came under renewed pressure yesterday as Brent front month futures attempted to recover back above $30/bbl, however, these efforts were in vain as markets slid lower giving back the majority of the day’s gains. Spot gold prices rallied strongly overnight and early this morning as the safe haven asset traded back above $1,096/oz.
10 Dec 2015 09:20
Front month crude prices failed to halt the bear run yesterday as both Brent and WTI prices slipped for the fourth straight session after a late stage rally failed to take root. The dollar faced further headwinds ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision as it experienced substantial selling pressure against a basket of major currencies yesterday. UK investors will be eagerly anticipating the Bank of England interest rate decision today and while the consensus expectation is for rates to remain unchanged at 0.5%, market participants will be on the lookout for any phrasing or terminology that could offer any additional insight.
07 Dec 2015 08:22
An eventful week last week as investors were offered plenty of cues from central bankers with the US Fed offering further strong hints that it would look to raise rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. After a bumper week for economic data last week we’ll be getting off to a slow start this week with UK Halifax house prices and Japanese third quarter GDP data the only data points of note to look forward to today.
26 Nov 2015 08:20
Base metals prices rebounded firmly overnight as investors reacted warmly to the news that Chinese regulators were considering launching a probe into short selling on local exchanges. Yesterday’s Autumn Statement saw Chancellor George Osborne tackle the deficit from another angle after failing to curb welfare spending, instead introducing a 2% increase to council tax to help pay for social care while wielding the axe on departmental budgets. Front month Brent futures managed to post gains for a fourth successive session yesterday as intraday dips towards $45/bbl were firmly bought into and futures ended the session at $46.17/bbl after attempting to gain a foothold at $46.50/bbl.
17 Nov 2015 09:01
The strong USD rally continues to dominate the global equity and commodity markets, as the USD index rallied for third consecutive session and extended gains above 99.50 against a basket of currencies. Gold has been hovering around $1,080/ounce. Copper extended declines towards $4,600 this morning, as the strong USD and bearish copper fundamentals weigh on market sentiment.
06 Nov 2015 08:30
Encouraging comments from Fed officials in recent days has improved the prospect of a December rate rise among market participants. All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s non-farm payrolls and unemployment data with the latest Bloomberg poll indicating commentators expect 185K, a substantial improvement from the previous months figure of 142K. The Bank of England struck a surprisingly dovish tone yesterday after holding rates unchanged and offering additional insight in its Inflation Report.
02 Nov 2015 08:36
Crunch time for the Bank of England is fast approaching as policymakers meet this Thursday for the penultimate MPC meeting of the year. The Turkish lira experienced considerable strength against the USD during early trade on Monday morning after a surprise win for the AK party. China’s manufacturing PMI reading for October released over the weekend offered little encouragement for investors who had hoped that activity in the world’s second largest economy had finally bottomed out and reached a floor.
27 Oct 2015 08:28
The yen posted gains for a second session overnight against the USD as investors positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rates decision and Friday’s BOJ meeting. Gold prices offered further indication of the shift in risk appetite as prices snapped a four session bear run during the overnight session. The pound sterling managed to snap a four day bear run against the USD yesterday as the currency traded back above the 200 day MA, ending the session at 1.5352 but not before attempting to test resistance at the 50 day MA towards 1.5380.
21 Oct 2015 08:50
Eurozone stocks traded lower for a third day yesterday as investors chose to remain side-lined ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rates decision and subsequent press conference from President Mario Draghi. A growing fear of Chinese bond defaults saw a sharp decline in appetite for mainland Chinese stocks as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 benchmark indices traded between 3.8%-4.3% lower overnight. The dollar index continues to face firm resistance towards 95.00 after recovering swiftly from the recent six week low towards 83.806.
15 Oct 2015 08:19
After UK inflation data released earlier this week posted a surprise decline into negative territory, investors were bracing themselves for a similar negative outlook for the UK labour market with stocks trading sideways throughout much of the session. The pound sterling recovered all of the previous sessions losses on yesterday’s encouraging employment data, posting its biggest one day rally against the dollar since May as it targeted the 100 day moving average towards 1.5500.
14 Oct 2015 08:29
Inflation in the UK posted a surprise drop in September as the headline CPI figure slipped below zero. The GBP fell to an eight month low against the euro on Tuesday as weaker than expected inflation data dampened the outlook for an incoming rates rise. Asian equities drifted lower on mounting Chinese deflation concerns after data released overnight saw consumer price inflation fall from 2.0% y/y in August to 1.6% y/y in September.
07 Oct 2015 08:57
WTI front month futures extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, eyeing the key $50 per barrel level. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly outlook that US crude oil production fell 120,000 barrels per day in September compared to a month earlier. The API weekly oil inventories report showed yesterday that US crude oil inventories have shrunk by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending 2nd October.
28 Sep 2015 08:38
After a somewhat disappointing September FOMC meeting as policymakers in the US opted to keep interest rates unchanged despite the hype surrounding the decision among market participants around the world Fed chair Janet Yellen offered additional clarity late last week. The yen continues to find firm support around 120.00 against the dollar as Chinese growth concerns continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The pound sterling faced another under pressure week last week as selling dominated trading activity and dollar strength saw the pound lose over 2.6% throughout the week.
10 Sep 2015 08:52
The Bank of England announces its latest decision on interest rates, which have been unchanged at 0.5% since March 2009. The Halifax survey showed that house prices increased by 2.7% m/m in August, beating expectations of a more modest increase of 0.5% and showing the biggest monthly increase since May 2014. Sterling slid lower towards 1.5350 against the USD, while the London equity benchmark index retreated nearly 1.0% in early trade this morning, towards 6,170.
09 Sep 2015 08:55
Asian equity markets posted strong gains overnight, as risk appetite increased and market sentiment generally improved. The Nikkei index rebounded from recent losses and spiked over 7.7% (1340 points) towards 18,800, showing its biggest one-day gain since 2008. The Shanghai Composite index gained over 2.2% towards 3243, while the Hang Seng index rallied strongly over 900 points (+4.25%) towards 22,150.
28 Aug 2015 08:55
Crude oil prices rallied yesterday and WTI front month futures climbed 10.26% to end the session at $42.56/barrel, showing their best performance since March 2009. This morning, WTI futures extended gains towards $43 per barrel, while Brent front month futures rebounded towards $48 per barrel.
07 Aug 2015 08:36
Yesterday’s macroeconomic data releases offered further insight into US labour market conditions and saw support for a rates rise in the coming months gather pace. The rouble rout shows little signs of halting its slide against the dollar as the currency trade towards 64.50 against the dollar yesterday. UK investors were left slightly confused yesterday as the outlook presented by the Bank of England in their inflation report was more dovish than the majority of market participants had expected.
21 Jul 2015 09:05
The strong USD continues to weigh on market sentiment adding pressure to most commodity prices. WTI front month futures remained under pressure after hovering around the key level of $50 per barrel, while Brent futures have been trading sideways around $56.50 this morning.
16 Jul 2015 08:36
The dollar index rallied to a six week high as Fed chair Janet Yellen once again reaffirmed the central banks outlook for a 2015 rates rise. Greek MPs voted in favour of the bailout agreement with 229 of the 300 members approving the terms that would need to be met in order to release as much as €86bn in rescue funds. The pound sterling struggled to extend gains yesterday on mixed data as faster wage growth accompanied by an increase in jobless claims left policymaker scratching their heads on the potential timing for a UK rates rise.
15 Jul 2015 08:28
There were increasing doubts surrounding the approval of Greece’s latest bailout after the IMF argued that substantial debt relief needed to be offered by creditors. China’s second quarter GDP grew by more than expected, providing further proof that stimulus measures instigated by policymakers in Beijing were starting to have a positive impact. Bank of England governor Mark Carney provided further hints of a rates rise in the near future as concerns of persistently low inflation were brushed aside.
07 Jul 2015 08:56
All eyes are on the Eurogroup’s meeting this evening, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the new Finance Minister Tsakalotos are meeting European creditors to discuss a fresh bailout proposal and possibly secure an agreement. In the meantime, the ECB added further pressure to the Greek banking sector as it kept the ELA funding limit unchanged.
30 Jun 2015 09:38
The heavy sell-off that dominated the global equity markets yesterday eased as there is little sign of contagion in European economies due to a possible Grexit as the euro held above 1.12 yesterday. Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, downgraded Greece to junk status, reporting there a 50% chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone.
17 Jun 2015 08:13
The pound sterling extended gains against the euro yesterday after a momentary pause on Monday as resistance held firm at the 50 day moving average towards 1.3840 euros to the pound. Eurozone bond volatility surged on fears Athens would continue to reject bailout terms as EU finance minister met once again to try and reach an agreement to talks that have dragged on for months. Another session of choppy trading is expected today with the Bank of England due to release minutes from their June meeting earlier this month as well as the release of unemployment figures for April and May.
08 Jun 2015 14:28
Markets drifted lower, starting the week on the back foot as the G7 summit which started on Sunday entered its second day. The Turkish lira hit a fresh record low against both the dollar and the pound sterling today after a period of significant uncertainty ahead of this weekend’s elections.
04 Jun 2015 07:53
Efforts to reach a deal after four months of negotiations gathered pace as Angela Merkel stepped in to help break the stalemate and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras continued to hold talks with eurozone officials in Brussels. Sterling extended its bear run against the euro for the sixth straight session yesterday after comments from ECB President Mario Draghi during yesterday’s press conference outlined the positive outlook for the eurozone economy. Cocoa futures resumed their upward rally after Ghana revised its production forecasts lower from 850,000 tonnes to 750,000 tonnes for 2015.
22 May 2015 07:55
Progress between Greece and its lenders finally seemed to be gathering pace as French President Francois Hollande commented on the possibility of negotiating a deal that would release much needed bailout funds for the indebted nation. Cocoa futures continue to gain substantial upside momentum as concerns of delayed shipments from West Africa spark a flurry of buying interest. The pound sterling rallied 0.8% against the dollar yesterday after halting losses against the dollar on Wednesday, finding support towards 1.550.
20 May 2015 15:30
Global equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic saw tentative trading ahead of this evenings release of April’s FOMC meeting minutes as investors weighed up the prospects of further delays in path to rising interest rates. The Bank of England unveiled in its May 7-8 meeting minutes that MPC members voted unanimously against an interest rates increase, a 9-0 move to keep rates unchanged at 0.5%.