Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

29 Jan 2016 08:21

The Japanese yen weakened significantly overnight against the dollar after the Bank of Japan surprised market participants with additional monetary easing. Japanese bond yields dropped sharply on the announcement with ten year government bond yields dropping to a record low of 0.100% from a high of 0.230%. Today’s session sees the release of US Q4 GDP data and investors are hoping that the advanced reading for the final quarter of last year will offer some stability and encouragement to risk appetite.

18 Jan 2016 08:48
Spot iron ore prices stabilised above $40/tonne last week as the steelmaking raw material faced another week of under pressure prices. Front month Brent futures slipped to a fresh multi-year low on Friday as the bears dominated the entire session, pushing the global crude benchmark as low as $28.82/bbl. A quiet session for economic data today and with a US market holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day we anticipate a relatively subdued European session.
07 Jan 2016 08:28
Chinese equity markets were shuttered barely half an hour after opening as circuit breakers were once again triggered after a precipitous 7% drop in the CSI 300 benchmark index. With policymakers at the PBOC stepping up intervention and expressing their willingness to allow the currency to materially weaken we will likely see further currency volatility as confused market participants slowly lose confidence in the central bank’s ability to shore up capital markets. The World Bank has cut its global growth forecast to 2.9% for 2016 from its previous forecast in June of 3.3%.
23 Dec 2015 08:33
US economic growth was revised down in the third quarter as the economy accelerated by 2.0% q/q from a previous reading of 2.1% with consumer spending the driving force behind the expansion. The dollar index headed lower for a third straight session yesterday as the greenback gave back practically all of its post FOMC rate decisions gains and tested support towards the 50 day MA.
21 Dec 2015 08:24
It seems the euphoria from last week’s interest rate increase in the US quickly dissipated as stocks on Wall Street faced firm selling pressure on Friday. The majority of market participants polled by Bloomberg and the FT expect the Fed to increase rates by another 25 basis points as early as March next year. The dollar index remains well supported around 98.700 early on this morning after giving back some of Thursday’s gains on Friday. Just when you think it couldn’t get any lower, front month Brent futures have hit a fresh year-to-date low this morning as the global crude benchmark trades towards $36/bbl early on this morning.
13 Nov 2015 08:57
European equities continue to remain under pressure extending losses in early trade on Friday, following the tepid GDP data. The German economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 2015, in line with expectations, while its y/y figure was reported at 1.7%, missing estimates of 1.8%. The French economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 2015, in line with estimates. The EUR continues to remain in choppy consolidation mode after hovering around 1.0750 against the USD. Today’s release of European GDP data has failed so far to provide any direction to the currency.
19 Oct 2015 08:51
China’s third quarter GDP managed to beat analyst expectations as data released overnight saw the economy expand at 6.9% y/y, slightly better than the 6.8% y/y expected. While growth in the Chinese economy continues to moderate investors owe thanks to policymakers in Beijing and the PBOC for improving liquidity conditions and their continued effort to bolster capital markets. In a sign that the overall mood is becoming more bullish for risk assets, spot gold prices were on track to close lower for the third straight session after breaching support at the 200 day MA during overnight trading.
14 Oct 2015 08:29
Inflation in the UK posted a surprise drop in September as the headline CPI figure slipped below zero. The GBP fell to an eight month low against the euro on Tuesday as weaker than expected inflation data dampened the outlook for an incoming rates rise. Asian equities drifted lower on mounting Chinese deflation concerns after data released overnight saw consumer price inflation fall from 2.0% y/y in August to 1.6% y/y in September.
28 Sep 2015 08:38
After a somewhat disappointing September FOMC meeting as policymakers in the US opted to keep interest rates unchanged despite the hype surrounding the decision among market participants around the world Fed chair Janet Yellen offered additional clarity late last week. The yen continues to find firm support around 120.00 against the dollar as Chinese growth concerns continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The pound sterling faced another under pressure week last week as selling dominated trading activity and dollar strength saw the pound lose over 2.6% throughout the week.
28 Aug 2015 08:55
Crude oil prices rallied yesterday and WTI front month futures climbed 10.26% to end the session at $42.56/barrel, showing their best performance since March 2009. This morning, WTI futures extended gains towards $43 per barrel, while Brent front month futures rebounded towards $48 per barrel.
27 Aug 2015 09:05
There is a strong upside momentum across the global equity markets this morning. Asian equity markets reversed recent heavy losses and rebounded to climb higher overnight. The Hang Seng index rallied over 3.8%, adding nearly 800 points towards 21,900.
25 Aug 2015 09:49
This morning, European rebounded and posted strong gains in early trade. The CAC, DAX, IBEX and London equity benchmark indices reversed yesterday’s losses and rallied higher. The big surprise yesterday was the European currency as the EUR rallied strongly and hit a high at 1.1714
14 Aug 2015 08:14
US data released yesterday continued to point towards an incoming rates rise as initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8th continued to hold near a four decade low. Despite the bullish data US benchmark equity indices ended the session in negative territory as Chinese concerns continued to weigh heavy on investor sentiment.
31 Jul 2015 08:12
Chinese equity markets have had their worst month since 2013 as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 showed no signs of stemming the outflows. The dollar managed to hold onto its gains yesterday despite slightly weaker than expected Q2 GDP data. Investors will be paying particular attention to today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index which will offer further insight into how much compensation employers pay out for the same position over time.
28 Jul 2015 08:48
Asian equities traded mixed overnight with Chinese mainland stock indices struggling to stem the recent outflows as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 shed 5% early on before recovering the majority of these losses towards the end of the session. The rouble posted losses against the dollar for the sixth straight session yesterday and was on track to post further declines against the greenback today. Investor attention today will remain focused on UK Q2 GDP data which will give market participants further insight into the state of the UK economy.
15 Jul 2015 15:14
The release of Chinese Q2 GDP data, which saw growth hold firm at 7.0% y/y for a second straight quarter, failed to provide mainland equity markets with adequate support. Instead both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 extended declines for a second day, losing 3% and 3.5% respectively. Investors were right to approach equity markets with renewed caution as recent efforts to stimulate the Chinese economy and reverse mounting deflationary pressures saw a significant spike in volatility.
15 Jul 2015 08:28
There were increasing doubts surrounding the approval of Greece’s latest bailout after the IMF argued that substantial debt relief needed to be offered by creditors. China’s second quarter GDP grew by more than expected, providing further proof that stimulus measures instigated by policymakers in Beijing were starting to have a positive impact. Bank of England governor Mark Carney provided further hints of a rates rise in the near future as concerns of persistently low inflation were brushed aside.
30 Jun 2015 09:38
The heavy sell-off that dominated the global equity markets yesterday eased as there is little sign of contagion in European economies due to a possible Grexit as the euro held above 1.12 yesterday. Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, downgraded Greece to junk status, reporting there a 50% chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone.
24 Jun 2015 08:52
Euro-area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels today to discuss the remaining modifications regarding the Greek proposal for aid package ahead of the crucial EU Summit on Thursday. This morning, the euro edged higher and rebounded above 1.12 against the US dollar.
08 Jun 2015 08:46
Turkish Lira declined sharply over the weekend and extended losses over 5% this morning to reach a record low against the USD after Turkey’s Islamist-rooted AKP party lost its Parliamentary majority after 13 years in power.
05 Jun 2015 08:06
Greece has become the first country to defer payment to the IMF since the 80’s as talks between Athens and its creditors this week failed to reach an agreement. After spiking towards a three week high of 1.1380 yesterday, the euro promptly gave back these early gains and slid towards 1.1223 against the dollar. The IMF has suggested the US Fed should postpone a rates rise to at least H1 2016 as it cut its US economic growth forecast for the second time this year.
03 Jun 2015 08:05
Eurozone officials have agreed to a bailout plan for Greece and are hopeful that the revised terms will be agreed to by the end of the week. Australia’s GDP grew by 0.9% q/q during the first quarter as growth was driven largely by newly completed mines boosting exports and the RBA’s decisions to keep interest rates steady. It’s a packed day for economic data releases today and we expect to see increased market volatility as investors respond to key data announcements.
29 May 2015 16:17
European equity markets remained under pressure during the last trading session of the month, as persistent concerns regarding Greece’s economic stability and future weighed on market sentiment...
29 May 2015 08:00
After a brief but sharp sell-off yesterday Chinese mainland stock indices managed to edge tentatively higher in what has marked an end to a very volatile week of trading. The ECB highlighted fresh concerns regarding Greece sounding the alarm on potential contagion if a deal fails to be reached soon.
28 May 2015 16:04
The strong rebound in the global equity markets yesterday proved to be short-lived as global equity markets reversed and gave back recent gains today. Investors remain cautious due to growing concerns regarding Greece’s debt crisis, while speculation of a possible earlier than expected US interest rates rise weighs on market sentiment.
20 May 2015 08:09
Asian equities rallied higher overnight following a strong session in Europe with Chinese mainland equity indices leading the charge higher as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 added over 2%. The yen weakened for a fifth straight session against the dollar during overnight trading, trading above 121.00 for the first time since mid-March as the currency remained on track to post its longest losing streak against the dollar since December last year. Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have given Greece until the end of the month to reach a deal on its bailout programme as patience among eurozone officials started to wear thin.
13 May 2015 08:52
Despite the mixed European GDP economic data, the euro extended gains within the range and hovered around 1.1250 against the US dollar. The French economy grew by 0.7% in Q1 2015 from 0.2% in Q4 2014, meeting analysts’ expectations. However, the German economy grew modestly by 0.3% in Q1 2015 compared to 0.7% in Q4 2014.
30 Apr 2015 08:39
The US Fed moved to dampen expectations of an imminent rates rise as the recent string of weaker than expected economic data showed that growth was gradually losing momentum. Chinese interest rate swaps headed for their biggest decline since 2008 this month as the PBOC ramped up its stimulus efforts in a bid to support the economy. The Bank of Japan held off from additional stimulus this month opting to hold the expansion of the monetary base at 80tn yen this year despite the abating pressure of rising inflation. Brazil’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by half a percent bringing a fifth consecutive increase to the key rate.
29 Apr 2015 15:52
The sharp sell-off across the global equity markets continues as investors remain cautious ahead of the crucial US Federal Reserve meeting looking for further clarification regarding the timing of a possible interest rate rise in the second half of 2015.
29 Apr 2015 08:01
Asian markets mimicked the choppy session on Wall Street as a string of weak corporate earnings prompted investors to take profits. The euro made notable gains against the USD despite a lack of macroeconomic drivers. The pound sterling extended its march on the USD for the sixth straight session, having rallied higher in 11 out of the last 12 sessions