Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

21 Sep 2015 08:47
The Greek left-wing party Syriza secured a clear victory -for a second time within a year- and won the snap elections on Sunday. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras reported that “this victory belongs to the people and those who dream of a better tomorrow and we wll achieve it with hard work”. The euro hovered around 1.13 against the USD this morning.
15 Sep 2015 09:15
Asian equity markets remained under pressure overnight. Market participants will be keeping an eye on today’s release of the ZEW economic survey expectations in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the Eurozone’s trade balance in July and unemployment data for Q2 2015. In the UK, this morning’s key inflation data will draw investors’ attention.
21 Aug 2015 08:43
Greek uncertainty continues to dominate the European equity markets, raising renewed concerns regarding the country’s economic stability. Last night, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced his resignation, showing the way for possible early elections on 20th September 2015.
11 Aug 2015 08:20
Another surprise move by Chinese policymakers caught investors off guard early this morning as the PBOC took steps to weaken the renminbi in an effort to shore up capital markets. Russia’s economy contracted 4.6% y/y during the second quarter of the year building on the 2.2% decline seen in the first quarter as weak crude oil prices significantly impaired economic growth, dragging the country into recession. Greece has agreed bailout terms with its lenders early this morning after talks continued throughout the night.
10 Aug 2015 08:26
Asian equity markets started the week on a strong footing despite data released over the weekend continuing to pile on the pressure, presenting policymakers with significant headwinds. Athens is nearing the conclusion to its €86bn third bailout package with creditors with the hopes of a deal being reached this week ahead of an August 20th deadline when Greece must make a $3.2bn loan repayment to the ECB. Spot gold prices have started this week on a firm footing as weaker than expected Chinese inflation and trade data prompted some haven demand.
24 Jul 2015 08:13
Gold prices slumped to their lowest levels since early 2010 as a combination of abating Greek debt concerns, the expectation of a US rates rise and the dissipating threat of deflation see investors fall out of favour with the precious metal. Athens extended the shutdown of Greece’s financial markets at least until Monday as officials prepared to meet creditors to negotiate the terms for its third bailout. Chinese equity markets ended the week on a positive note with the Shanghai Composite index posting gains for a seventh straight session, adding a modest 2.8% this week, as the PBOC took additional measures to shore up the market.
23 Jul 2015 08:53
The Greek parliament approved bailout reform package after passing a crucial bill demanded by Eurozone as part of a bailout deal. The euro rallied strongly towards 1.10 against the USD this morning following the Greek approval. European equity markets climbed higher in early trade.
22 Jul 2015 09:01
European equity markets retreated sharply in early trade as investors remain cautious ahead of the Greek parliamentary vote this evening. There is increasing worries regarding Greece’s political uncertainty as a possible further conflict within Syriza could force the government into a minority position if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras fails to gain sufficient support.
17 Jul 2015 08:35
ECB President Mario Draghi reassured markets as he announced an increase of emergency liquidity assistance limit by €900m. The euro traded back towards a six week low on Mr Draghi’s comments as contagion fears subsided and investor attention switched back towards the ongoing QE programme. Asian equity markets ended the week on a positive note as major indices across the region posted gains overnight with Chinese mainland stock indices leading the charge higher.
16 Jul 2015 08:36
The dollar index rallied to a six week high as Fed chair Janet Yellen once again reaffirmed the central banks outlook for a 2015 rates rise. Greek MPs voted in favour of the bailout agreement with 229 of the 300 members approving the terms that would need to be met in order to release as much as €86bn in rescue funds. The pound sterling struggled to extend gains yesterday on mixed data as faster wage growth accompanied by an increase in jobless claims left policymaker scratching their heads on the potential timing for a UK rates rise.
15 Jul 2015 08:28
There were increasing doubts surrounding the approval of Greece’s latest bailout after the IMF argued that substantial debt relief needed to be offered by creditors. China’s second quarter GDP grew by more than expected, providing further proof that stimulus measures instigated by policymakers in Beijing were starting to have a positive impact. Bank of England governor Mark Carney provided further hints of a rates rise in the near future as concerns of persistently low inflation were brushed aside.
14 Jul 2015 08:25
After over a decade of political wrangling an Iranian nuclear agreement has been reached as officials negotiations in Vienna came to an end. After Monday’s euphoria as a Greek deal was reached, PM Alexis Tsipras faces a fresh challenge today as he seeks a parliamentary vote approving the fresh bailout reforms agreed over the weekend. Global equity market reflected this uncertainty early on today with a hesitant Asian session paving the way for a mixed European open as investor appetite was subdued by a weak trading session in China and doubts over the Greek deal.
13 Jul 2015 08:39
Greek debt negotiations over the weekend saw little progress as the deadlock showed no signs of breaking. With Greece fast running out of money and its banks shut over the past two weeks we wondered how long the standoff could last and it seems that developments earlier this morning indicate a deal has been reached. European stocks rallied strongly on the news of the deal with all major indices in the region pushing confidently higher. German bund yields spiked higher early on as investors pulled funds out of the safe haven on improving risk appetite. In what was a week largely dominated by ongoing Greek concerns, investors could be forgiven for overlooking developments in the US as the outlook for a 2015 rates rise becomes more and more likely.
10 Jul 2015 09:00
The Greek government submitted its reform proposals to Brussels ahead of European creditors’ deadline. European equity markets posted strong gains in early trade this morning amid hopes for a positive outcome at the upcoming Eurogroup meeting over the weekend. The euro surged higher and breached 1.11 against the USD, showing signs of upside recovery.
08 Jul 2015 09:11
The Hang Seng index plunged over 2000 points overnight (-8.2%) towards 22,900 as concerns regarding Chinese’s economic stability weighed on market sentiment, prompting investors to sell-off. China’s Shanghai Composite Index also declined sharply, showing its biggest drop since 2007.
07 Jul 2015 08:56
All eyes are on the Eurogroup’s meeting this evening, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the new Finance Minister Tsakalotos are meeting European creditors to discuss a fresh bailout proposal and possibly secure an agreement. In the meantime, the ECB added further pressure to the Greek banking sector as it kept the ELA funding limit unchanged.
06 Jul 2015 09:20
The Greek referendum showed a convincing “no” vote with around 61% of Greek voters against the creditors’ proposal and 38% in favour. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras insisted that he will now have a stronger mandate to negotiate with European creditors for a better deal for the Greek economy with less austerity measures and a possible restructuring of Greek debt.
03 Jul 2015 09:01
As the Greek bailout negotiations have been “on hold” until the country’s referendum on Sunday, attention turned to US employment data yesterday. We received mixed US employment indicators yesterday, which somewhat distorted the outlook for a possible US interest rate rise later this year.
02 Jul 2015 08:59
“Greece fatigue” continues to dominate global equity and commodity markets as there is still no conclusion to the debt crisis. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras accused international creditors of blackmailing Greek voters ahead of Sunday’s referendum, just hours after he accepted most of the terms of the newly proposed reform plan with a handful of minor changes.
01 Jul 2015 08:48
Greece’s last minute appeal to international creditors for financial aid yesterday got rejected. Thus, the country became the first developed economy to default on IMF payment as the deadline expired yesterday. The IMF confirmed yesterday that the country has not made its scheduled 1.6 billion euro loan repayment to the fund, so economic conditions deteriorated.
30 Jun 2015 09:38
The heavy sell-off that dominated the global equity markets yesterday eased as there is little sign of contagion in European economies due to a possible Grexit as the euro held above 1.12 yesterday. Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, downgraded Greece to junk status, reporting there a 50% chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone.
29 Jun 2015 09:20
There is high uncertainty that dominates the global equity and commodity markets as current situation in Greece deteriorated significantly over the weekend. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum in the early hours on Saturday 27th June.
26 Jun 2015 15:23
The euro was stable for third straight session today, immediately supported by the 50 day moving average after selling off substantially on Tuesday. After some knee jerk profit taking earlier this week eurozone equity markets are on track to end the week on a more positive note as benchmark indices across the region pushed tentatively higher.
26 Jun 2015 09:11
Another Euro-group meeting came to an end without reaching a deal yesterday. European Finance Ministers and the Greek government failed for a fourth time in a week to seal an accord. The ongoing uncertainty caused high volatility and dragged global equity markets lower.
25 Jun 2015 15:27
Eurozone stocks continued to trade under pressure as nervous investors continue to monitor the situation between Greece and its creditors. For now though the general market sentiment seems to be mostly positive with investment demand for gold falling further as haven demand wanes.
25 Jun 2015 09:02
Deal or no deal? International creditors yesterday rejected another Greek proposal as the meeting of European Finance ministers ended without an agreement on Wednesday evening. Discussions are set to continue this morning. The euro has slightly rebounded this morning to retest 1.12 against the USD, however, European equity markets continue to remain under heavy pressure.
24 Jun 2015 15:19
Equity markets across Europe reversed direction today as the ongoing search for a viable Greek deal was perhaps more elusive than investors had anticipated. Given the four months of stalemate between Athens and its creditors, the likelihood of a fresh deal being proposed and then implemented with little or no resistance at this late stage is, as we can see, very slim indeed.
24 Jun 2015 08:52
Euro-area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels today to discuss the remaining modifications regarding the Greek proposal for aid package ahead of the crucial EU Summit on Thursday. This morning, the euro edged higher and rebounded above 1.12 against the US dollar.
23 Jun 2015 15:35
Markets rose strongly for a second day as hopes of a fresh deal between Greece and its creditors buoyed risk appetite. However, backlash to the plan proposed by Athens was nowhere more vocal than at home as Greek officials reacted with hostility to the concessions offered in return for the release of emergency bailout funds. We’re far from out of the woods yet, and investors were reminded of this earlier today after the ECB stepped up its support to Greek banks, increasing the limit on emergency liquidity assistance to approximately €89bn.
23 Jun 2015 08:44
Greece’s main stock exchange rallied 9% yesterday, showing its biggest increase since February, and outperformed the rest of European equities. Furthermore, yields on Greek government bonds declined amid hopes that the Greek government will reach a deal with its creditors this week in order to release bailout funds.