Some slightly better data coming out of China overnight as we start to see the emerging impact of stimulus measures.
The yuan failed to halt its recent bearish run against the USD as investors focused on weaker factory gate prices and continued to digest yesterday’s weaker than expected trade data.
Both front month Brent and WTI futures seem to have stemmed the recent outflows as they find support around yesterday’s opening levels.
Further signs of weakness in China prompted investors to selloff. The Hang Seng index plunged over 300 points (-1.43%) towards 22,400 while the Shanghai Composite Index slid lower by 0.20% towards 3,640. China’s CPI rose 1.3% y/y in October compared to 1.6% in September, missing analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% rise, showing the lowest level since May 2015.
Inflation in the UK posted a surprise drop in September as the headline CPI figure slipped below zero.
The GBP fell to an eight month low against the euro on Tuesday as weaker than expected inflation data dampened the outlook for an incoming rates rise.
Asian equities drifted lower on mounting Chinese deflation concerns after data released overnight saw consumer price inflation fall from 2.0% y/y in August to 1.6% y/y in September.
Asian equity markets remained under pressure overnight. Market participants will be keeping an eye on today’s release of the ZEW economic survey expectations in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the Eurozone’s trade balance in July and unemployment data for Q2 2015. In the UK, this morning’s key inflation data will draw investors’ attention.
Copper prices extended losses to fresh lows yesterday as the wider rout in commodities markets continued.
UK inflation posted a surprise rise in July as headline CPI rose 0.1% y/y from zero the previous month.
Gold prices built on support around yesterday close as activity overnight put the yellow metal on track to extend gains for a third straight session.
Asian equity markets started the week on a strong footing despite data released over the weekend continuing to pile on the pressure, presenting policymakers with significant headwinds.
Athens is nearing the conclusion to its €86bn third bailout package with creditors with the hopes of a deal being reached this week ahead of an August 20th deadline when Greece must make a $3.2bn loan repayment to the ECB.
Spot gold prices have started this week on a firm footing as weaker than expected Chinese inflation and trade data prompted some haven demand.
Three month LME zinc futures rallied for a second day, climbing back towards $2,375/tonne after adding almost 2% yesterday as prices continued to recover some of the previous week’s losses. The Bank of England cut its growth outlook for the UK in its quarterly inflation report, revising downwards its forecasts for economic growth over the next three years.
After extending back towards multi-year highs since the start of the month it seems eurozone investors have lost their appetite for higher levels with major equity benchmark indices in the region experiencing firm selling pressure throughout the session. Having rallied for six straight session, gaining almost 3% against a basket of major peers and after a short lived intraday rally towards 100.00 yesterday, the dollar index sold off as much as 0.9% lower today as jittery investors adjusted positions after the release of US economic data.
The US Fed yesterday offered further clarity regarding the path of an eventual interest rates rise, signalling that the central bank was in no rush to increase the interest rate from its record low. Yesterday’s comments from Yellen prompted a sell-off in the dollar against a basket of major currencies as the dovish statement prompted investors to revise expectations. Gold prices added 1.5% yesterday after the Fed dialled back its forecasts, ending the session at $1,167.61/oz as the yellow metal recovered both this week’s and last week’s losses.
Expectations for an impending rates rise in the US were dampened yesterday as easing retails sales in February strengthened the case for keeping rates at their historic lows for longer. Asian equity indices extended gains during overnight trading with Japanese benchmarks reaching their highest level in 15-years as the recovery on Wall Street sparked an increase in risk appetite.
Asian equities extended gains overnight, continuing on their strong run as investors flooded back into risk assets as the recent run of mediocre macroeconomic data and sluggish inflation outlook prompted investors to expect further central bank intervention in the coming months. Chinese mainland stock indices rallied to a four week high after a relatively subdued start to their shortened week as investors speculated that the People’s Bank of China along with policymaker in Beijing would step up efforts to support the economy.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen set the stage for a potential interest rate rise this year, bringing an end to the historically low repo rates that have prevailed in recent years. Asian benchmark stock indices rallied higher overnight extending gains that have pushed stocks to fresh highs after comments from Janet Yellen offered investors an insight into the Fed’s outlook. HSBC’s China manufacturing PMI reading pushed back above 50 in February with the preliminary reading coming in at 50.1 after spending the past two months below the level that separates expansion from contraction.
Precious metal prices remained under heavy pressure following rumours of a possible interest rate hike, while market participants are likely to lock in any recent gains ahead of Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
Positive commentary coming from Fed officials during yesterday’s FOMC press conference highlighted the overall pace of expansion as “solid” despite a moderation in performance throughout December. The weaker investor sentiment managed to carry over to the overnight session with most major benchmarks stock indices across Asia experiencing heavy selling pressure with Chinese mainland stocks one again leading the way down. Spot gold prices closed 0.6% lower yesterday on comments from the Fed which signalled that US economic growth was on track and that a potential rates rise this year was increasingly likely.
Russia surprised the global equity and commodity markets today following an announcement that the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10.5%. The news caused high volatility and nervous conditions across global markets.
Crude oil prices continued to act as a dampener on global risk assets as front month Brent futures slipped below $63/bbl for the first time since July 2009. Weaker than expected eurozone industrial production data saw improving investment demand for sovereign bonds issues in the region. Over in the US, eagerly anticipated PPI data fell in November with the final demand reading contracting -0.2% m/m, reversing direction from the previous month’s 02.% m/m reading.
Details emerging from yesterday’s release of last month FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the views held by a majority of market participants as policymakers moved closer to tightening monetary policy. Spot gold prices slipped back towards $1,180/oz yesterday after a brief foray above $1,200/oz as a stronger dollar and encouraging property data supported the dollar higher. Today’s session sees plenty of economic releases to keep investors engaged with German PPI data kicking off proceedings earlier this morning.
Investors will be keeping an eye on the Bank of England’s inflation report and ILO unemployment rate in the UK, tomorrow. In the meantime, European equity markets edged higher in today’s trading session.
Risk assets extended losses on Wednesday as concerns regarding global economic growth prospects continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The slowing price increases were a further sign that growth was faltering with many market participants speculating that Beijing would increase easing measures. In a move congruent with the current global growth concerns front month Brent prices extended losses below $84/bbl for the first time since November 2010 today, trading as low as $83.37/bbl early on during the European session.
The weekly DOE oil inventories report showed a large unexpected decline of 7.53 million barrels in the US crude oil inventories for the week ending 11th July versus expectations of a modest 2.1 million barrels decline. Brent front month futures climbed more than $1 per barrel yesterday, rebounding from recent steep declines.
Investors await Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yelen’s testimony to the Senate today and to the House Committee tomorrow. UK CPI inflation accelerated to 1.9% y/y in June, beating analysts’ expectations of 1.6%.
European equity markets rebounded and edged higher today, as stronger than expected economic data from the Eurozone improved market sentiment, bringing back risk appetite. Base metal prices climbed higher today, as Copper retested the $6,700 area.
The CAC and IBEX slid slightly lower, while the DAX and the London equity benchmark consolidated within the recent range, struggling for clear direction. The Euro rebounded slightly, trading above 1.35 against the US dollar.
Gold climbed higher, trading above $1255 per ounce. Platinum has also extended its winning streak to a fifth consecutive trading session. China’s CPI increased by 2.5% in May compared to a 1.8% rise in April, accelerating to its fastest pace in four months.
Emerging market equities set for the longest stretch on monthly gains since 2009. German retail sales fell sharply by 0.9% in April against expectations of a 0.4% rise. Gold steadied around $1250/ounce after a three-day losing streak, but was heading for its biggest weekly decline in two months.
European equity markets posted fresh losses in today’s session, as risk appetite was limited. The CAC and DAX retreated by 0.3% and 0.1%, while London’s equity benchmark index fell more than 0.57%, dragged lower by Vodafone and the UK retail stocks.
European equity markets plunged in today’s session, tracking sharp declines in US equities as fairly disappointing corporate earnings results weighed on market sentiment and prompted some profit taking.
The credit rating agency S&P cut Russia’s long and short-term foreign currency sovereign ratings to BBB-/A-3 from BBB/A-2 this morning. Russia’s 5Y credit default swaps rose 8 basis points to 6-week high of 272 bps following the downgrade.