Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

29 Sep 2015 08:23
After a relatively stable September the rouble seems poised for a breakout as indicated by the technicals. Embattled commodities trader Glencore saw its shares hit a fresh record low yesterday, closing over 30% lower on the day as concerns regarding its burgeoning debt pile prompted investors to sell-off en masse. The Bank of England is expected to hold off from an interest rate increase at least until the mid-2016 according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
18 Aug 2015 08:52
An indiscriminate emerging market currency rout pushed the Turkish lira to a fresh record low yesterday as investors reacted to the news that PM Ahmet Davutoglu announced his party’s failure to form a coalition government. Emerging currencies extended losses with the rouble leading the charge, trading back above 65.000 against the dollar for the first time since early February as the Russian economy continues to feel the effects of lower crude oil prices. The Thai baht extended losses back towards levels last seen during the financial crisis in 2009 as the currency took a fresh hit after the bomb blast in Bangkok yesterday.
11 Aug 2015 08:20
Another surprise move by Chinese policymakers caught investors off guard early this morning as the PBOC took steps to weaken the renminbi in an effort to shore up capital markets. Russia’s economy contracted 4.6% y/y during the second quarter of the year building on the 2.2% decline seen in the first quarter as weak crude oil prices significantly impaired economic growth, dragging the country into recession. Greece has agreed bailout terms with its lenders early this morning after talks continued throughout the night.
07 Aug 2015 08:36
Yesterday’s macroeconomic data releases offered further insight into US labour market conditions and saw support for a rates rise in the coming months gather pace. The rouble rout shows little signs of halting its slide against the dollar as the currency trade towards 64.50 against the dollar yesterday. UK investors were left slightly confused yesterday as the outlook presented by the Bank of England in their inflation report was more dovish than the majority of market participants had expected.
04 Aug 2015 08:52
Spot gold prices failed to hold on to Friday’s tentative gains as prices traded 0.9% lower at the start of the week on sluggish investment demand and Chinese economic concerns. The rout in emerging market currencies extended on Monday as the rouble continued to feel the pressure, trading back towards levels last seen in late February/early March. Front month Brent futures displayed significant selling pressure yesterday as the 3.9% decline saw the global benchmark trade back below $50/bbl for the first time since January as the bear market continued.
30 Jul 2015 08:23
Details from yesterday’s FOMC statement added further weight to a rates rise in the coming months as hawkish policymakers at the Fed further outlined their willingness to increase borrowing costs. The dollar resumed its upward rally against its major peers with the dollar index rallying towards 97.250 yesterday with activity early this morning extending those gains for a third day, targeting 97.455 early on. Crude oil prices managed to lift for a second session yesterday as improving supply data halted the recent downward moves in both front month Brent and WTI futures
28 Jul 2015 08:48
Asian equities traded mixed overnight with Chinese mainland stock indices struggling to stem the recent outflows as both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 shed 5% early on before recovering the majority of these losses towards the end of the session. The rouble posted losses against the dollar for the sixth straight session yesterday and was on track to post further declines against the greenback today. Investor attention today will remain focused on UK Q2 GDP data which will give market participants further insight into the state of the UK economy.
02 Jun 2015 07:54
The rouble dropped to a five week low yesterday, losing almost 2% against the dollar as the currency struggled to hold on to tentative gains towards 50.00 throughout May. A choppy session yesterday set the tone for the remainder of the week as a flurry of US economic data releases yesterday supported Wall Street higher. Talks between Greece and its creditors intensified as concerns that Greece may miss its June 5th deadline to repay the IMF prompted eurozone leaders to take swift action.
12 Feb 2015 15:53
A generally positive session for European equity markets despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding Greece’s future in the eurozone as talks mediated by Germany and France between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a ceasefire. With the IMF recently announcing a fresh $17.5bn bailout package for Ukraine in an effort to shore up public finances market participants hope that the progress made so far will catalyse into the eventual easing of economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU.
22 Jan 2015 15:53
As expected, and long anticipated by many market participants, the ECB announced a €1.26tn QE plan, committing to asset purchases totalling €60bn per month until September 2016. The announcement was a boon for emerging market currencies as investors speculated that some of the €60bn a month asset purchases would find its way to high yielding markets. Benchmark equity indices were well supported across Europe today, with London’s blue chip index pushing higher for the seventh straight session adding over 6.4% during the recent rally.
17 Dec 2014 07:51
Despite the turmoil in the oil market and the worsening economic crisis in Russia, Asian equity markets managed to hold firm overnight. The rouble continued to trade under pressure early on this morning, holding on to yesterday’s close around 67.69 against the dollar but not before intraday dips saw losses extend as far as 73.00 before partially recovering. Three month LME lead prices fell to a 27-month low yesterday as manufacturing activity in China contracted for a second straight month.
16 Dec 2014 09:07
Russia tried to defend Rouble with the biggest interest rate rise since 1998. Following a surprise announcement, the Russian central bank increased its key interest rate to 17% from 10.5%, effective today.
01 Oct 2014 08:14
Front month WTI futures plummeted 3.6% on Tuesday as contracts registered their biggest one day loss in 22 months as prices slid back towards a seventeen month low. Asian equities carried over the slightly bearish mood from the US session as Japanese benchmark indices extended Monday’s declines.
15 Sep 2014 15:50
The dollar once again posted gains against major peers as market participants began to price in a hawkish Fed outcome ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. European equity markets spent much of the session in negative territory as renewed risk aversion among investors in the run up to the Scottish referendum and the FOMC meeting meant many investors steered clear of risk assets.
29 Aug 2014 08:05
The rouble dropped to a record low against the dollar as it weakened a further 1.5% against the dollar yesterday, reaching levels towards 36.8926 throughout the day. Demand for safe havens saw gold prices extend gains yesterday as prices closed just below $1,290/oz after breaching firm resistance at the 200 day MA, closing higher for the third straight session. The JPY remained on track to post weekly gains as demand for the safe haven currency increased and risk appetite was curbed.
28 Jul 2014 16:26
European equity indices got off to a shaky start this week after threats of further European sanctions against Russia saw investors sell-off risk assets. The majority of benchmark stock indices in Europe closed lower after spending the majority of the session holding on tentatively to opening levels before swinging into negative territory towards the close as a weaker start to the US session commenced.
26 Mar 2014 07:44
Global markets rose on stronger than expected US consumer confidence which rose to 82.3 in March from 78.3 the month before. The positive sentiment carried over to the Asian session as Japanese benchmark indices added steady gains on increasing risk appetite. Geopolitical risk concerns seem to be subsiding after President Obama stated yesterday that Western powers would hold off the imposition of further sanctions against Russia provided they do not go beyond Crimea.
24 Mar 2014 07:53
China’s flash manufacturing PMI softened to 48.1 for March missing the median expectation of 48.7 expected by analysts’ in a Bloomberg survey marking a third consecutive month of a reading below 50. US investors returned to equity markets with confidence last week as encouraging economic data supported intraday moves in the S&P 500 towards record highs on Friday. Tensions between Russia and the Ukraine remain high as President Obama’s arrived in Europe for talks with commentators calling for more support of Ukraine’s government.
17 Mar 2014 08:24
Overnight trading in Asian equity markets set the week off to a shaky start as Japanese benchmark indices slipped lower, remaining under pressure on Ukrainian tensions while Chinese indices managed to rally higher after Friday’s sell-off. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are dominating headlines and with all eyes on the referendum over the weekend, investors retreated from risk assets on the uncertainty towards the end of last week. Spot gold prices pushed above $1,390/oz for the first time since early September as the vote in Crimea boosted haven demand.
03 Mar 2014 08:05

Japanese stock markets edged lower during overnight trading as investors sought out safe havens amid continued unrest in the Ukraine. Tensions in Ukraine have supported commodity benchmarks higher on concerns that the escalating unrest may curb energy supplies. The Russian central bank increased interest rates in a surprise move this morning, reacting to the escalating inflationary pressures which has seen the rouble weaken towards 37.00 against the dollar, losing almost 12% of its value since the start of the year. Gold prices were supported higher as demand from risk averse investors spiked, pushing the yellow metal to a four month high as it looked to test levels towards $1,350 later today.