Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

06 Nov 2015 08:30
Encouraging comments from Fed officials in recent days has improved the prospect of a December rate rise among market participants. All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s non-farm payrolls and unemployment data with the latest Bloomberg poll indicating commentators expect 185K, a substantial improvement from the previous months figure of 142K. The Bank of England struck a surprisingly dovish tone yesterday after holding rates unchanged and offering additional insight in its Inflation Report.
05 Nov 2015 08:26
US bond yields continued to rise while benchmark stock indices pared recent gains yesterday on the growing expectation that the US Fed would raise interest rates in December. Yesterday’s release of encouraging ADP employment change data for October strengthened the case for an incoming rates rise after 182K jobs were added, two thousand more than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The yen extended declines against the dollar for a fourth straight session during overnight trading, edging towards the 100 day MA as it traded around 121.70.
16 Oct 2015 08:42
The dollar index managed to pare recent losses yesterday as the greenback recovered some ground against a basket of major currencies after five day bear run. It has been a tumultuous few quarters for the USD and after rallying robustly throughout the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 investors were hoping the bull run would continue as a rate rise in the US looked imminent amid a flurry of rosy manufacturing and labour market data. Despite the jittery outlook investors were encouraged back into risk assets after yesterday’s initial weekly jobless claims came in below expectations.
02 Oct 2015 08:40
Asian trading was mixed overnight following a cautious session on Wall Street yesterday as investors assessed the days economic data releases. The Bank of England may have a stronger case for an incoming rates rise as yesterday’s release of the final Markit manufacturing PMI reading for September hold firmly at 51.5 with last month’s reading revised up slightly to 51.6. Spot gold prices extended declines for a fifth straight session yesterday and are on track to extend the bear run for a sixth straight session as investors position themselves ahead of today’s labour market data.
14 Aug 2015 08:14
US data released yesterday continued to point towards an incoming rates rise as initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8th continued to hold near a four decade low. Despite the bullish data US benchmark equity indices ended the session in negative territory as Chinese concerns continued to weigh heavy on investor sentiment.
06 Aug 2015 09:17
It’s finally here, the day market commentators have dubbed ‘Super Thursday’ as the Bank of England prepares to release a torrent of reports, data and analysis on the UK economy. The case for a US rates rise continued to strengthen yesterday as better than expected US data saw confidence in the economy improve. As the camp expecting a rates rise in the coming months from both US and UK central bankers gains support, investors will be paying close attention to macroeconomic data releases.
16 Jul 2015 08:36
The dollar index rallied to a six week high as Fed chair Janet Yellen once again reaffirmed the central banks outlook for a 2015 rates rise. Greek MPs voted in favour of the bailout agreement with 229 of the 300 members approving the terms that would need to be met in order to release as much as €86bn in rescue funds. The pound sterling struggled to extend gains yesterday on mixed data as faster wage growth accompanied by an increase in jobless claims left policymaker scratching their heads on the potential timing for a UK rates rise.
11 Jun 2015 15:32
Another bullish session for global equity markets today as the positive sentiment from the Asian session spilled over to European trading and impressive US macroeconomic data releases buoyed investor confidence. The dollar index snapped a three day losing streak today, lifting firmly above 95.000 against a basket of major currencies as on the whole bullish US data encouraged investors back into the greenback.
21 May 2015 15:35
European equity indices experienced a rather subdued trading session today, following on from a mixed Asian session as investors continued to mull over yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes. With a growing number of market participants worried that US equity markets are now overvalued after the S&P hit a new record intraday high yesterday having gained 14% over the past twelve months.
01 May 2015 07:56
China’s official manufacturing PMI held firm month-on-month as it managed to hold above the 50 point mark that separates expansion from contraction, coming in at 50.1 in April. The euro posted its largest monthly gain against the dollar in over four years as it snapped a nine month bear run against the greenback in April. Initial weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in fifteen years to 262K during the week ending April 25th as underlying labour market conditions continued to improve.
17 Apr 2015 08:08
Greek officials faced further headwinds in their battle to reach an agreement with eurozone lenders after the head of the IMF; Christine Lagarde expressed unwillingness to grant a grace period for upcoming loan repayments commenting that precedents were “not followed by very productive results”. The euro rallied for a third straight day yesterday, pushing briefly above 1.0800 against the dollar before paring some of the day’s gains to end the session 0.72% up at 1.0761. Earnings on Wall Street were a bright spot for investors after Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both posted one of their strongest quarters since the financial crisis.
09 Mar 2015 08:07
Asian equity benchmark indices started the week on the back foot with most major markets erasing much of the previous session’s gains as investors continued to mull over Friday’s US jobs data. The surprise increase in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, which rose by 295K in February against expectations of a lower 235K increase, prompted investors to speculate that a US rates rise was on its way. The US dollar index rallied to a fresh 12-year high on Friday, gaining 1.26% against a basket of major currencies as it touched levels towards 97.726.
06 Mar 2015 16:46
Despite the solid US employment data, the Dow Jones index retreated sharply over 180 points (-1.03%) towards 17,950. Following the release, the USD index rallied above 97.5 against a basket of currencies, weighing heavily on most commodity prices.
19 Feb 2015 08:42
Sterling rallied to a seven year high against the euro yesterday as a string of positive data releases supported the pound higher and uncertainty surrounding Greece’s bailout renegotiations kept the euro under considerable pressure. Eurozone officials will meet in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s request for a bailout extension. Spot gold prices traded towards a six week low yesterday as hopes for progress regarding the Greek bailout saw investors pull out of the safe haven.
09 Jan 2015 15:42
Positive macroeconomic data today surprisingly failed to support global equity markets higher, with today’s trading activity giving back some of yesterday’s gains as investors exercised renewed caution after the recent rout in risk assets. Echoing the weaker sentiment across equity markets, crude oil market headed for a seventh consecutive week of declines as global supplies showed no signs of letting up.
05 Dec 2014 08:00
Asian markets traded with modest gains during overnight trading despite both European and US equity benchmark indices posting losses yesterday as investors repositioned themselves ahead of today’s important data releases. The dollar index rallied higher ahead of today’s crucial data releases as it touched a fresh year-to-date high towards 89.122 against a basket of major peers yesterday as it looks to target a seventh week of gains. Three month LME nickel prices posted gains for a fourth straight session yesterday, adding 3.35% throughout the session and bringing gains for the week to just under 6.5% after built on support at the 50 day MA on Monday.
12 Nov 2014 16:13
A cautious session for global equity markets today with European stock indices dipping lower as the news of five major banks being fined $3.4bn in a longstanding forex probe saw appetite for risk reduce. Market optimism was dealt a further blow after the Bank of England inflation report confirmed what many market participants had already been thinking by forecasting that interest rates would need to stay at historic lows until next autumn to prevent inflation remaining below its 2% target.
21 Aug 2014 15:44
Global stocks headed higher once again with European benchmark indices resuming the relief rally after a momentary pause yesterday saw investors take short term profits. Investors were still absorbing the Fed minutes which saw policymakers begin to adopt a more hawkish outlook that previously.
11 Jul 2014 08:07
Wall Street struggled to hold on to tentative support levels yesterday, erasing midweek gains as energy and financial stocks sold off. Further insight into the Fed’s thinking was given by St Louis Fed President James Bullard yesterday in a phone interview with Bloomberg. Asian stocks carried over the bearish sentiment from US markets with Japanese benchmark indices posting a weekly decline while Chinese equities snapped two consecutive weeks of gains.
03 Jul 2014 17:29
Robust US employment data spread optimism across equity and commodity markets and increased risk appetite. The Dow Jones index surged and breached above 17,000 hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 Index also climbed higher eyeing the 2,000 points.
03 Jul 2014 08:24
US markets held firm midweek, ahead of non-farm payrolls and unemployment data due out later today. Asian markets fluctuated between gains and losses overnight ahead of the US jobs data later today with trading activity largely subdued. Spot gold prices pulled back off recent highs ahead of the data, trading below $1,320/oz at one stage early on in the session.
01 Jul 2014 08:12
Japanese stocks pushed higher overnight, building on Monday’s gains after Japanese companies outlined a better than estimated investment outlook. China’s official manufacturing PMI for June continued on the path of expansion, rising to 51.0 in June as expected from the previous months reading of 50.8. Today will see the release of plenty of economic data which will keep investors engaged throughout the entire session. Chinese PMI data kicked off proceedings with figures coming in largely in line with expectations.
03 Jun 2014 16:47
European equity markets reversed yesterday’s gains and slid lower in today’s trading session as risk appetite was limited. We received fairly positive macroeconomic indicators from the US, China and Eurozone, but the data failed to provide any upside momentum to equity and commodity markets.
07 Apr 2014 07:56
Asian equities carried on the sell-off that dominated Wall Street on Friday as Japanese investors pulled back after a three session rally on weaker US non-farm payrolls data and revised expectations that the BOJ would hold off from further stimulus measures. Spot gold prices rallied higher on Friday, adding 1.3% and closing at $1,303.50/oz as investors assessed the pace of stimulus. European stocks are anticipated to open lower as stock index futures signal a continuation of the bearish sentiment that dominated the Asian session.
04 Apr 2014 17:36
European equity markets rebounded strongly today, as solid US employment data increased risk appetite. The US unemployment held steady at 6.7% in March, providing further support to the US dollar which continued its recent strong up-trend against the euro.
10 Feb 2014 08:11
Asian markets largely dismissed the disappointing non-farm payroll number released on Friday, following Wall Street higher on positive investor sentiment. Despite the stronger equity market performance towards the end of last week and in Asia overnight, spot gold prices managed to breach resistance in the form of the 100 day MA as prices pushed past $1,270. Front month Arabica coffee futures traded within a wide range on Friday, closing slightly higher as speculators increased bullish bets as drought conditions in Brazil continued to threaten this year’s harvest. A quiet start to the week will leave investors mulling over US jobs data and unemployment as well as key rate decisions by both the BoE and ECB received towards the end of last week.
06 Feb 2014 15:45
As expected both the Bank of England and European Central Bank opted to leave their respective base rates unchanged today, prompting little reaction from investors. The ECB also chose to hold interest rates at historically low levels for the fourth consecutive month but comments from President Mario Draghi reaffirmed their commitment to take action if necessary as emerging market contagion and deflation remained a real threat to eurozone stability. European equity markets built on early gains, rallying off the recent multi-month lows as London’s blue chip index looked set to close 1.5% higher and both the DAX and CAC rallied higher for the third consecutive session, set to close 1.5% and 1.9% respectively.
05 Feb 2014 17:17
European equity markets fluctuated strongly on Wednesday as investors remain cautious following the mixed economic data and the recent volatility in the markets. On the macroeconomic front, Markit PMI data from Eurozone, UK and Germany was slightly below analysts’ estimates, while the Eurozone’s retail sales plunged sharply by 1.6% in December.
22 Jan 2014 17:16
It has been another quiet day for the European equity markets, which consolidated within the recent range, struggling for some direction. Due to the absence of major macroeconomic data and significant currency movements, the equity markets continue to trade range-bound.
21 Jan 2014 17:28
European equity markets gave back earlier gains and ended today’s session fairly unchanged. CAC, DAX finished on positive territory, while the London benchmark index ended flat on the day after previously having hit an 8-month high.