Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

12 Feb 2016 08:27
The offshore Chinese yuan exchange rate gained further ground against the dollar overnight, tracking much of the region’s equity benchmarks and currencies lower as the global sell-off showed no signs of stopping any time soon. Front month WTI futures traded at their lowest level in twelve years yesterday as the US benchmark posted losses for the sixth straight session as the rout continues. Ongoing dollar weakness bizarrely offered very little support to commodities prices this week and concerns of a market-to-real economy feedback loop could gain traction if the current dynamics persist.
03 Feb 2016 08:18
The bearish outlook continued to dominate investor sentiment as the sell-off in Asian equity markets extended overnight, prompted by crude oil futures posting fresh losses. Appetite for the USD remains firm with the dollar index trading confidently above 98.700, remaining well supported towards the 50 day MA against a basket of major currencies. Safe haven assets were buoyed by the extended sell-off in Asian equity markets as the Japanese yen strengthened for the third straight session against the dollar.
27 Jan 2016 08:31
Front month crude prices managed to recover the majority of Monday’s losses during yesterday’s trading session as investors viewed the sharp sell-off at the start of the week as overdone. Gold prices managed to hold onto yesterday’s gains as global growth concerns saw investors continue to pile into the safe haven asset. Chinese imports of copper rose to their highest level since December 2011 as customs data released yesterday saw the world’s second largest economy import just over 423K tonnes of the red metal.
22 Jan 2016 08:25
The ECB signalled toward more QE as President Mario Draghi set the stage for more stimulus, citing China’s economic slowdown and persistent market volatility throughout the second half of 2015 as factors threatening the eurozone’s recovery. Front month WTI futures ended firmly higher yesterday, posting strong gains and ending the session over 11% higher compared to Wednesday’s close. A busy day for economic activity today as investors after assessing eurozone PMI data will have UK retail sales and UK public finances data to pore through.
13 Jan 2016 08:49
Another mixed session for Asian equity markets as Chinese trade data released overnight saw a bigger than expected surplus in December and PBOC intervention saw the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan exchange rates converge. Front month WTI prices dipped below $30/bbl yesterday, and the world went crazy. It spent all of two minutes trading just below this ominous level before recovering towards $30.44/bbl at the close. Today’s data will be of particular interest, with the EIA set to release their weekly crude oil inventory statistics this afternoon.
24 Dec 2015 08:46
US crude oil inventories posted a surprise drop last week, bucking the seasonal trend of rising stockpiles and offering some lift to front month prices. Chinese mainland equity indices pared recent gains during the overnight session as investors took short term profits off the table. A quiet session today with initial weekly jobless claims the only major data release of note. Market participants are expecting 270K new claims during the week ending December 19th, down 1,000 from the previous week’s reading of 271K.
15 Dec 2015 08:18
US natural gas prices slumped to their lowest level in over a decade as warm weather conditions saw the supply glut increase. Crude oil benchmarks hit a fresh low for the year on Monday as both front month Brent and WTI contracts faced renewed selling pressure early on with intraday moves hitting $36.33/bbl and $34.53/bbl respectively before a late stage rally. Iron ore prices continue to face significant headwinds at the start of this week with very little to indicate prices may recovery any time soon.
10 Dec 2015 09:20
Front month crude prices failed to halt the bear run yesterday as both Brent and WTI prices slipped for the fourth straight session after a late stage rally failed to take root. The dollar faced further headwinds ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision as it experienced substantial selling pressure against a basket of major currencies yesterday. UK investors will be eagerly anticipating the Bank of England interest rate decision today and while the consensus expectation is for rates to remain unchanged at 0.5%, market participants will be on the lookout for any phrasing or terminology that could offer any additional insight.
09 Dec 2015 08:48
Some slightly better data coming out of China overnight as we start to see the emerging impact of stimulus measures. The yuan failed to halt its recent bearish run against the USD as investors focused on weaker factory gate prices and continued to digest yesterday’s weaker than expected trade data. Both front month Brent and WTI futures seem to have stemmed the recent outflows as they find support around yesterday’s opening levels.
20 Nov 2015 08:58
Crude oil prices remain under pressure as ongoing concerns regarding global supply glut dominate the market and weigh heavily on market sentiment. This morning, WTI futures came under renewed pressure in early trade and extended declines towards $40 per barrel while the strong USD adds additional pressure to the market. Please note that both WTI and Brent front month futures have declined over $8/barrel within 3 weeks in November.
19 Nov 2015 08:58
Following a statement after October’s Fed meeting, Fed members made it clear that an interest rate increase would be considered at their “next meeting”, which is scheduled for 15-16th December 2015. The clear message spread optimistic signs across most global markets and increased risk appetite. Most Fed members agreed that US economic conditions are improving, while others agreed that conditions had already been met, in order to trigger a rate increase.
13 Nov 2015 08:57
European equities continue to remain under pressure extending losses in early trade on Friday, following the tepid GDP data. The German economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 2015, in line with expectations, while its y/y figure was reported at 1.7%, missing estimates of 1.8%. The French economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 2015, in line with estimates. The EUR continues to remain in choppy consolidation mode after hovering around 1.0750 against the USD. Today’s release of European GDP data has failed so far to provide any direction to the currency.
12 Nov 2015 08:57
Today, the main focus will switch to the release of the weekly jobless claims as well as the monthly Fed Budget Statement, which will set the tone for the trading session. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at a Fed conference at 14:30 GMT, providing an insight regarding the current US economic conditions and prospects. The USD index extended gains this morning, breaking above the 99.0 area against a basket of currencies.
06 Oct 2015 11:10
Crude oil prices hovered within the recent range in early trade this morning as investors await renewed talks that Russia is ready to meet OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil producers in order to discuss the market. The news provided strong upside momentum in the oil market, as Russia has been thus far unwilling to cut oil production and cooperate with the OPEC members in order to support the current low crude oil prices.
30 Jul 2015 08:23
Details from yesterday’s FOMC statement added further weight to a rates rise in the coming months as hawkish policymakers at the Fed further outlined their willingness to increase borrowing costs. The dollar resumed its upward rally against its major peers with the dollar index rallying towards 97.250 yesterday with activity early this morning extending those gains for a third day, targeting 97.455 early on. Crude oil prices managed to lift for a second session yesterday as improving supply data halted the recent downward moves in both front month Brent and WTI futures
19 Jun 2015 16:02
There is increasing volatility across global markets as we continue to read headlines that time is running out for Greece. The euro came under renewed pressure today and slid lower towards 1.13 against the USD as the Greek economic conditions have deteriorated during last week.
26 May 2015 16:15
European equity markets fluctuated strongly and posted renewed losses in today’s trading session as investors remained cautious due to disappointing US economic data and ongoing concerns over the looming financial crisis in Greece.
20 Apr 2015 15:58
Strong corporate earnings results increased risk appetite and improved market sentiment in the first trading session of the week. European equity markets rebounded and posted renewed gains today. In the US, the Dow Jones index recovered and surged over 200 points.
16 Mar 2015 16:29
European equity markets opened in positive territory this week, with the CAC, DAX, IBEX and London equity benchmark indices gaining between 1.0% and 2.5%. The euro edged higher within the recent range and hovered around 1.058 against the US dollar.
16 Mar 2015 08:08
Chinese benchmark stock indices stood in stark contrast to their regional peers as mainland equities started the week on a strong footing. Front month WTI futures faced considerable downward pressure last week with prices posting losses in four out of the five days as bearish oil fundamentals weighed heavily on near term futures. Commodity prices struggled to gain any considerable upside momentum last week as a stronger USD pinned down any substantial recovery across the commodity complex.
04 Mar 2015 16:00
The stronger USD weighed on most commodity prices in today’s session as the USD index rallied strongly and breached 96.0 against a basket of currencies. Disappointing US economic data weighed on market sentiment and limited risk appetite in today’s trading session.
19 Feb 2015 16:29
Despite the ongoing uncertainty regarding the Greek debt crisis, European equity markets managed to edge higher in today’s session. An emergency Euro-group meeting is scheduled tomorrow which could clarify the current situation as European leaders and market participants are looking for a possible agreement regarding the Greek debt issue.
11 Feb 2015 16:04
European equity markets extended losses in today’s trading session as investors remained cautious and were prompted to another round of sell-off ahead of the crucial Euro-group meeting. The euro remained under pressure hovering around 1.13 against the USD dollar, awaiting any possible decisions from European leaders.
10 Feb 2015 16:22
Crude oil prices gave back part of recent gains and reversed in today’s session with WTI front month futures plunging over 3% to retest $51/barrel. Copper extended declines towards $5,580 (-1.5%)
04 Feb 2015 16:02
Crude oil prices reversed and retreated sharply in today’s trading session as investors remained cautious and were prompted to a heavy sell-off following the disappointing US economic data and the stronger US dollar. The weekly EIA oil inventories report was fairly bearish after showing another large build of 6.3 million barrels.
29 Jan 2015 16:21
WTI front month futures extended losses below $44 per barrel, showing the potential for a possible test of the $40 key level in the upcoming trading sessions if the sharp downside momentum continues.
29 Jan 2015 08:09
Positive commentary coming from Fed officials during yesterday’s FOMC press conference highlighted the overall pace of expansion as “solid” despite a moderation in performance throughout December. The weaker investor sentiment managed to carry over to the overnight session with most major benchmarks stock indices across Asia experiencing heavy selling pressure with Chinese mainland stocks one again leading the way down. Spot gold prices closed 0.6% lower yesterday on comments from the Fed which signalled that US economic growth was on track and that a potential rates rise this year was increasingly likely.
28 Jan 2015 16:16
European equity markets remained under pressure in today’s trading session, amid ongoing concerns regarding Eurozone’s economic stability and prospects. The euro extended losses and slid lower towards 1.132 against the US dollar, as investors remained cautious following the next steps from the new Greek government.
19 Jan 2015 16:22
European equity markets started the week in the positive side and climbed higher amid expectations that the ECB is likely to announce on Thursday an additional package of sovereign QE bond purchases in order to boost the European economies.
09 Jan 2015 15:42
Positive macroeconomic data today surprisingly failed to support global equity markets higher, with today’s trading activity giving back some of yesterday’s gains as investors exercised renewed caution after the recent rout in risk assets. Echoing the weaker sentiment across equity markets, crude oil market headed for a seventh consecutive week of declines as global supplies showed no signs of letting up.