Market Insights & Analysis

Read our analysts' daily briefings, together with our Market Snapshot reports.

09 Feb 2016 08:22
The yen resumed its run of strength against the dollar after a brief respite around 117.00 late last week as well as early moves yesterday giving back some of the previous week’s gains towards 117.50. 10 year Japanese government bond yields declined to unprecedented levels, dipping into negative territory in a steady decline since the start of the month.
29 Jan 2016 08:21

The Japanese yen weakened significantly overnight against the dollar after the Bank of Japan surprised market participants with additional monetary easing. Japanese bond yields dropped sharply on the announcement with ten year government bond yields dropping to a record low of 0.100% from a high of 0.230%. Today’s session sees the release of US Q4 GDP data and investors are hoping that the advanced reading for the final quarter of last year will offer some stability and encouragement to risk appetite.

05 Nov 2015 08:26
US bond yields continued to rise while benchmark stock indices pared recent gains yesterday on the growing expectation that the US Fed would raise interest rates in December. Yesterday’s release of encouraging ADP employment change data for October strengthened the case for an incoming rates rise after 182K jobs were added, two thousand more than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The yen extended declines against the dollar for a fourth straight session during overnight trading, edging towards the 100 day MA as it traded around 121.70.
17 Aug 2015 08:13
The yuan started the week off on a firm footing as overnight trade offered early signs that intervention from the PBOC was starting to take effect. Yields on ten year German bunds dropped at the beginning of the previous week as concerns regarding China’s currency devaluation saw traders doubt the timeline for an eventual US rates rise, opting instead to return to safe haven assets. Spot gold prices trimmed some of their heady gains towards the end of last week, snapping the five day rally that had seen prices for the yellow metal recover from just under $1,084/oz during the first week of the month towards $1,125.58/oz last week.
13 Jul 2015 08:39
Greek debt negotiations over the weekend saw little progress as the deadlock showed no signs of breaking. With Greece fast running out of money and its banks shut over the past two weeks we wondered how long the standoff could last and it seems that developments earlier this morning indicate a deal has been reached. European stocks rallied strongly on the news of the deal with all major indices in the region pushing confidently higher. German bund yields spiked higher early on as investors pulled funds out of the safe haven on improving risk appetite. In what was a week largely dominated by ongoing Greek concerns, investors could be forgiven for overlooking developments in the US as the outlook for a 2015 rates rise becomes more and more likely.
24 Jun 2015 15:19
Equity markets across Europe reversed direction today as the ongoing search for a viable Greek deal was perhaps more elusive than investors had anticipated. Given the four months of stalemate between Athens and its creditors, the likelihood of a fresh deal being proposed and then implemented with little or no resistance at this late stage is, as we can see, very slim indeed.
18 Jun 2015 08:16
An encouraging outlook for US interest rates was laid out in yesterday’s FOMC statement and accompanying press conference. Treasury yields saw wide swings yesterday as initial optimism which pushed 10 year yields back towards 2.4% on improving risk appetite gave way to a fresh drive for safety, as investors piled back into the government backed securities. Contagion fears as the stalemate continued between Greece and its creditors threatens to derail the significant progress that eurozone economies have made since the financial crisis.
17 Jun 2015 08:13
The pound sterling extended gains against the euro yesterday after a momentary pause on Monday as resistance held firm at the 50 day moving average towards 1.3840 euros to the pound. Eurozone bond volatility surged on fears Athens would continue to reject bailout terms as EU finance minister met once again to try and reach an agreement to talks that have dragged on for months. Another session of choppy trading is expected today with the Bank of England due to release minutes from their June meeting earlier this month as well as the release of unemployment figures for April and May.
15 Jun 2015 08:05
Talks between Greece and its creditors failed to reach a conclusion over the weekend as the threat of a Greek default and probability of a Greek exit from the euro became increasingly likely possibilities. Treasury yields resumed their downward trajectory as demand for safe haven assets saw yields on 10 year German bunds fall for the third straight day early this morning, dropping back below 0.8% on rising Greek default risk. Asian markets sold off overnight as talks failed to progress with benchmark equity indices across the region starting the week under significant pressure.
10 Jun 2015 15:28
Bund yields hit 1% for the first time in almost nine months as global equity markets halted the sell-off which has seen short term profit taking over the past few sessions. Greek debt negotiations are still in commanding the attention of investors around the world, with the balance of power seemingly tilting in favour of Germany and France, as Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande postponed their meeting with Greek PM Alexis Tsipras in order to press for further concessions.
29 May 2015 08:00
After a brief but sharp sell-off yesterday Chinese mainland stock indices managed to edge tentatively higher in what has marked an end to a very volatile week of trading. The ECB highlighted fresh concerns regarding Greece sounding the alarm on potential contagion if a deal fails to be reached soon.
19 May 2015 15:07
Eurozone bond yields fell further today as the ECB hinted that it may accelerate its €1 trillion bond buying campaign after previously pledging that there would be no early end to the plan. Ten year German government bond yields fell back towards 0.551% today after reaching a five month high of 0.777% earlier this month.
14 May 2015 13:48
Global risk assets rose tentatively today after yesterday’s losses as investors anticipated continued progress between Greece and its creditors. Eurozone bond yields continued to march higher with 10 year German government issued bond yields touching 0.773%.
12 May 2015 15:08
Global risk assets fell sharply during today’s trading session as investor attention remained firmly locked on the impasse between Greece and its creditors. US ten year treasury yields climbed higher today, reaching a six month high of 2.3639% as it built on yesterday’s 13 basis point increase.
17 Apr 2015 08:08
Greek officials faced further headwinds in their battle to reach an agreement with eurozone lenders after the head of the IMF; Christine Lagarde expressed unwillingness to grant a grace period for upcoming loan repayments commenting that precedents were “not followed by very productive results”. The euro rallied for a third straight day yesterday, pushing briefly above 1.0800 against the dollar before paring some of the day’s gains to end the session 0.72% up at 1.0761. Earnings on Wall Street were a bright spot for investors after Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both posted one of their strongest quarters since the financial crisis.
13 Apr 2015 15:35
Borrowing costs in Germany showed no signs of halting their downward charge as the market began to feel the effects of QE. The euro posted a continuation of last week’s moves lower, trading under pressure for a sixth straight session against the dollar as it moved closer and closer to parity. It was a mixed session for European stock indices today with eurozone equity benchmarks lifting higher while London’s blue chip index pared recent gains.
10 Mar 2015 08:29
German government bond yields fell substantially yesterday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the long anticipated QE programme from the ECB. The euro held around an eleven year low against the dollar as it struggled to recover some of Friday’s precipitous losses, trading around 1.08-1.09 against the dollar for much of the day. Asian equities struggled to hold onto near term support levels overnight as momentum from the US session failed to carry over to Asian trading.
18 Feb 2015 10:47
On the one hand, markets are nearing record/multi-year highs given the ECB’s €1.1tn QE programme which has given some much needed liquidity and encouraged further risk taking as investor confidence builds. However, leaving the single currency union will have far reaching implications sentimentally.
03 Feb 2015 08:06
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key rate to a record low of 2.25% as central bankers cited an overvalued Australian dollar, joining a growing list of global central banks that have eased policy this year in the face of falling commodity prices. German 10 year yields opened below their Japanese equivalent for the first time ever as concerns regarding the outlook for the eurozone seem to have resurfaced and investors worry that the single currency union is heading down the path to a lost decade, similar to Japan’s path throughout the 90’s.
21 Jan 2015 15:23
A choppy trading session today with mixed results across European benchmark indices as jittery investors rushed to position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s all important ECB meeting. Having dropped back to levels last seen in 2003 late last week, trading towards 1.1460 on Friday, market participants are hopeful that the central bank’s commitment to shoring up the single currency by buying as much as €50bn per month until the end of 2016.
16 Jan 2015 07:57

Yesterday’s surprise move by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling against the euro saw intense selling pressure in both US and Asian equity markets. The Japanese yen strengthened for a fifth straight session against the dollar as safe haven demand saw the currency end yesterday’s session at 116.17 after opening around the previous session’s close and moving tentatively higher, towards 118.00. Government bond yields around the world have dropped towards record lows this week as market volatility, eurozone uncertainty and geopolitical tensions prompt investors to seek out safe haven assets.

14 Jan 2015 08:07
Three month LME copper prices hit a fresh multi-year low during overnight trading as the demand outlook continued to deteriorate with prices for the red metal extending declines for a tenth straight session. The World Bank cut its forecast for global growth last night outlining significant risks of a world economy over reliant on growth in the US.