NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures weakened yesterday, closing below the 18.50 level at 18.36. The stochastics are falling in the oversold, and the MACD diff is also negative and diverging, but momentum is slowing, pointing to a possible change of trend in the near term. On the downside, prices need to break below the support of 18.17 before targeting 18.00. This would continue to drive the recent decline. Conversely, if support at 18.20 can hold firm, this could trigger gains towards the resistance at 18.50. A breach of this level would confirm the outlook for higher prices, with gains seen towards 10 DMA 18.78. We expect the momentum to remain on the back foot before the change of trend in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 523. This level held firm, and the future closed at 526.90. The stochastics are falling in the oversold but are showing signs of convergence on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging but stalling on the downside, signalling waning selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, the market needs to take out resistance at 530.20 and then 40 DMA at 532.63. On the downside, a break below the support at 38.2% fib level at 521.93 could set the scene for futures to take out the 100 DMA level at 519.97 before targeting 512.90. A doji candle after two strong bearish candles signals uncertainty about the outlook for lower prices, and the futures need to take out the 530.20 to confirm the change of trend.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close above 100 DMA support; the market closed at 229. The stochastics are rising moderately, but %K is seen tailing off on the downside, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD diff flipped back into the negative, suggesting further selling pressures. Prices have been supported by 100 DMA support in recent days, and in order to confirm the change of momentum, prices need to break below the current support at 228.40 and then 40 DMA at 223.69. Conversely, a break above 240 could set the scene for a test of 244.75. We expect prices to continue recent losses today and remain on the back foot.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures lost ground yesterday as selling pressure intensified; prices closed at 2086. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting strengthening selling pressure, and the RSI is neutral. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence on the downside. To help confirm the selling pressure from the stochastics, prices need to break below the 40 and 10 DMA at 2084 and 2081, respectively. On the upside, if futures can find support above 2100, this could set the scene for higher prices back above 100 DMA at 2123 before targeting trend resistance. Selling pressure has fluctuated in recent sessions outlined by the shorter candles on the downside, and the indicators suggest lower prices in the near term. This is confirmed but a long bearish candle body with a longer lower wick. We expect prices to weaken in the near term, but the futures need to break below 40 and 10 DMAs to confirm that outlook.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures weakened marginally yesterday after testing the support level of 10 DMA. The market closed higher at 2433. The stochastics are rising, but %K is showing signs of tailing off on the downside, back to the oversold. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging, pointing to a continuation of upside momentum before the change of trend. To confirm this, futures need to break below the support of 10 DMA at 2419, down to 2400. Indeed, the 10 DMA support level has been robust in the last couple of sessions, a break below this level would suggest growing conviction on the downside. On the upside, reaffirmation of support at this level could set the scene for higher prices back to breach the 40 DMA level at 2484 up to 2500, confirming an inverse hammer formation. The indicators suggest upside momentum in the near term, but a change of trend is on the way.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 1758. The stochastics are rising, with the %K entering the overbought territory; the MACD diff is positive and diverging. A break of 1750 could trigger losses through 1730, with the tertiary level at 1700. On the upside, a break above previous sessions’ highs at 1778 could set the scene for a test of 1800, pointing to a change of trend for more bullish momentum. Yesterday’s bearish spinning top formation points to market indecisiveness about the outlook for higher prices, and we need the futures to break support at 1750 to confirm the outlook.