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Daily Base Metals Report

US Recession Risks Remain in Focus

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Recession concerns remain amid escalating trade war.
  • Base metals were cautiously bullish today, with tin rallying more than 9.0% in a single day. 
  • Gold surged to record highs due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Macro

US stocks opened lower as recession fears deepened, driven by the escalating trade war and renewed geopolitical tensions after Russia rejected a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Economic data showed producer prices remained flat in February—the first time since July 2024—suggesting easing cost pressures. However, the ongoing trade war is expected to weigh on prices in the coming months, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates if economic conditions worsen. While market expectations for rate cuts have increased since January, rising from just 1.5 cuts priced in for 2025, inflation risks tied to tariffs may limit the Fed’s flexibility. The dollar index edged higher to 103.8, while the 10-year US Treasury yield erased its early gains, trading at 4.3%.

Base Metals

The base metals complex started the day cautiously, gauging market appetite for new highs and retesting yesterday’s resistance level. A lack of both fundamental and technical triggers has made it challenging to push prices significantly higher. However, ongoing tariffs on aluminium and steel and subsequent retaliations are helping to support prices at the upper end of the trading range.

Copper tested prices above the $9,800/t level at $9,815/t, marking an October 2024 high, hovering just below it by the end of the day at $9,783.50/t. Above this level, the next robust resistance level stands at $9,890/t. Aluminium held its nerve once again, fluctuating around the $2,700/t mark due to a lack of strong buying or selling pressure. Nickel, after reaching above $16,700/t, declined for the first time in five days, settling near the support level of $16,500/t. Lead and zinc continued to trade at elevated levels. 

In contrast, tin saw a significant rally, surging by more than $3,000/t in a single day and reaching highs of $35,900/t, similar to levels last seen in July 2022. This surge was primarily driven by the production halt of one of the largest tin mines in the Republic of Congo due to domestic conflict. The magnitude of the increase can also be attributed to the traditionally lower liquidity in the tin market.

Precious Metals and Oil

Growing geopolitical tensions and renewed trade uncertainty propelled gold to a record high, with the metal surging to $2,971/oz after breaking out of its previous range. Silver followed, climbing to $33.7/oz. Oil prices eased slightly, with WTI at $67.2/bbl and Brent at $70.5/bbl.

 Lme Metals Price And Volume 13032025

All price data is from 13.03.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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